Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W37). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.
Percentile places a rating among the 1,907 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.
Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lorenzo Puertas '29 | University of Michigan | 10/10 | 283 | 305 | +22 | 88th → 91st | 0.2 | 23% | 2.2 / 3.0 | 293 |
| 2 | Lucas Nykamp '29 | Hope College Dutchmen Orange | 10/10 | 205 | 258 | +54 | 78th → 86th | 1.1 | 8% | 2.7 / 4.4 | 215 |
| 3 | William Styslinger '28 | University of Wisconsin | 6/10 | 186 | 213 | +27 | 75th → 79th | 0.2 | 70% | 5.5 / 4.9 | 189 |
| 3 | Penelope Whiteside '28 | University of Wisconsin | 4/10 | 139 | 306 | +167 | 66th → 91st | 3.9 | 4% | 2.5 / 5.7 | 162 |
| 4 | Charles Crowell '28 | Northwestern University | 10/10 | 124 | 193 | +69 | 64th → 76th | 2.3 | 23% | 4.7 / 6.2 | 153 |
| 5 | Christopher Draper '29 | Purdue University | 10/10 | 112 | 95 | -16 | 62nd → 59th | 0.1 | 45% | 6.2 / 6.5 | 111 |
| 6 | Lucas Rodenroth '27 | Michigan Technological University | 10/10 | 143 | 82 | -61 | 67th → 57th | 2.1 | 75% | 6.5 / 5.7 | 143 |
| 7 | Wyatt Tait '27 | Washington University | 10/10 | 125 | 101 | -24 | 64th → 60th | 0.3 | 68% | 6.7 / 6.1 | 120 |
| 8 | Hayden Johansen '27 | University of Minnesota | 10/10 | 50 | 94 | +43 | 50th → 58th | 1.0 | 35% | 7.3 / 7.9 | 60 |
| 9 | Erin Welker '27 | Arizona State University | 10/10 | -43 | -10 | +33 | 32nd → 38th | 0.5 | 37% | 9.4 / 9.8 | -37 |
| 10 | Marco Constantini '27 | Northern Michigan University Wildcats 1 | 10/10 | 62 | 10 | -52 | 52nd → 42nd | 1.4 | 91% | 9.6 / 7.6 | 58 |
| 11 | Caroline Henry '27 | Hope College Dutchmen Blue | 10/10 | -10 | -14 | -4 | 38th → 37th | 0.0 | 81% | 10.3 / 9.2 | -10 |
| 12 | Will Turner '28 | Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 | 10/10 | 8 | -40 | -48 | 42nd → 33rd | 1.1 | 88% | 10.4 / 8.8 | 8 |
| 13 | Duncan Nauyokas '30 | Michigan State University | 10/10 | -103n | -130 | -27 | 20th → 15th | 0.2 | 67% | 11.7 / 10.5 | -103 |
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Tevelde '30 | Hope College Dutchmen Orange | 10/10 | 235 | 178 | -58 | 82nd → 73rd | 1.5 | 63% | 2.7 / 2.6 | 232 |
| 2 | Claudia Kroll '29 | University of Wisconsin | 10/10 | 58 | 206 | +148 | 51st → 78th | 7.8 | 1% | 2.8 / 5.3 | 98 |
| 3 | Graham Rebain '29 | University of Michigan | 6/10 | 204 | 351 | +147 | 78th → 95th | 3.3 | 3% | 1.5 / 3.1 | 204 |
| 3 | Brendan Wojkowski '29 | University of Michigan | 4/10 | 115 | 48 | -67 | 62nd → 49th | 1.1 | 84% | 5.5 / 4.2 | 112 |
| 4 | Stonewall Vojtisek '30 | University of Minnesota | 10/10 | 93n | 100 | +8 | 58th → 60th | 0.0 | 43% | 4.2 / 4.8 | 93 |
| 5 | Flinn Opel '29 | Washington University | 10/10 | 41 | 62 | +21 | 48th → 52nd | 0.2 | 31% | 4.7 / 5.6 | 54 |
| 6 | Philip Arippol '30 | Purdue University | 10/10 | 47n | 50 | +2 | 49th → 50th | 0.0 | 47% | 5.2 / 5.6 | 47 |
| 7 | Sean Bascoe '27 | Northwestern University | 6/10 | -81 | -40 | +41 | 24th → 33rd | 0.5 | 42% | 7.3 / 7.8 | -69 |
| 7 | Elliott Yoder '29 | Northwestern University | 4/10 | 8 | 37 | +30 | 42nd → 48th | 0.2 | 50% | 6.0 / 6.2 | 11 |
| 8 | Astrid Myhre '28 | Michigan Technological University | 10/10 | -76 | -76 | -1 | 26th → 26th | 0.0 | 55% | 7.9 / 7.7 | -76 |
| 9 | George Bachleda '28 | Northern Michigan University Wildcats 2 | 10/10 | -158 | -130 | +28 | 10th → 15th | 0.4 | 49% | 9.2 / 9.2 | -152 |
| 9 | Matt Daub '27 | Hope College Dutchmen Blue | 10/10 | -121n | -145 | -24 | 16th → 12th | 0.3 | 63% | 9.2 / 8.4 | -121 |
| 11 | Austin Sjaarda '27 | Michigan State University | 10/10 | -254 | -257 | -3 | 1st → 1st | 0.0 | 73% | 11.5 / 10.6 | -254 |
| 12 | Anna Rayhorn '27 | Northern Michigan University Wildcats 1 | 10/10 | -185 | -277 | -91 | 6th → 1st | 3.5 | 93% | 11.6 / 9.6 | -186 |
| 13 | Alexandra Park '27 | Arizona State University | 10/10 | -279 | -329 | -50 | 1st → 1st | 0.7 | 92% | 12.4 / 11.0 | -283 |
