Navigate

Frosh-Soph — Analysis

← Results

* This regatta is not official yet. Ratings marked * are from the last weekly update and have not absorbed this event; the performance columns use the results posted so far, and everything refreshes as scoring is finalised.

Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W41). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.

Percentile places a rating among the 2,015 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.

Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.

  • n no rating before this event — the model's estimate from this week is used as the baseline.
  • u not rated by the model — the division median is used as the baseline.
  • — in the performance column means the skipper finished last in every race they sailed, so no finite least-surprisal rating exists.

Division A  25 boats · 1 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Carl Eskilstorp '27 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 1/1 50n* 700+ +650 44th → 99th 3.9 6% 1.0 / 11.0 50*
2 Andrew Dolle '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 1/1 168* 296 +129 67th → 87th 0.6 22% 2.0 / 6.5 169*
3 Drew Gerlach '30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 1/1 90n* 230 +140 51st → 77th 0.8 23% 3.0 / 9.6 90*
4 Xyler Yee '30 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 1/1 70n* 181 +111 47th → 69th 0.5 25% 4.0 / 10.5 70*
5 Anna Stolyarova '29 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 1/1 52* 145 +93 44th → 63rd 0.4 23% 5.0 / 10.5 53*
6 Robert Gibbs '30 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 1/1 -8n* 119 +127 32nd → 58th 0.7 23% 6.0 / 13.2 -8*
8 Selin Posacioglu '30 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 1/1 8n* 70 +62 36th → 47th 0.2 33% 8.0 / 12.6 8*
10 Colin Cheng '29 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 1/1 -39* 34 +73 24th → 41st 0.3 29% 10.0 / 14.5 -38*
11 Alexander Stellato '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 1/1 -72* 19 +91 17th → 38th 0.4 27% 11.0 / 15.7 -71*
18 Kyra Polesky '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 1/1 -31n* -121 -90 26th → 8th 0.7 67% 18.0 / 14.1 -31*
19 Finn Smith '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 1/1 -54n* -172 -118 21st → 2nd 1.0 67% 19.0 / 15.0 -54*
20 Nicole Spry '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 1/1 -132* — — 6th → — 1.7 56% 20.0 / 18.1 -136*
21 Austin Weske '27 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 1/1 -5u* — — 33rd → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 13.1 —*
21 Benjamin Paige '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 4 1/1 -122* — — 8th → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 17.7 —*
21 Eloise White '29 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1/1 -1* — — 34th → — 0.0 >99% 26.0 / 12.7 —*

Division B  25 boats · 3 races

Fin Skipper School Races Rating
before*		 Perf.
rating		 Δ Percentile
before → perf.		 Surprise
(bits)		 P(this good
or better)		 Avg finish
actual / exp.		 Rating
after*
1 Henry Vare '30 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1 3/3 191* 700+ +509 71st → 99th 5.8 1% 1.0 / 5.3 202*
3 Guthrie Goss '26 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 3 3/3 24* 228 +204 38th → 77th 4.4 2% 3.0 / 11.3 35*
6 Zacharia Stover '28 Arizona State University Sun Devils 3 3/3 10n* 37 +28 36th → 42nd 0.1 40% 9.7 / 11.9 10*
7 Sam Yu '27 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 2 3/3 4* 41 +37 35th → 42nd 0.2 37% 10.0 / 12.1 9*
11 Ulises Kuijken-Lewis '27 University of California at Berkeley Bears 1 3/3 47n* 22 -25 43rd → 38th 0.1 56% 10.7 / 10.5 47*
12 Anjali Venugopalan '29 University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2 3/3 13* 24 +11 36th → 38th 0.0 48% 11.0 / 11.8 16*
12 Weston Otterson '29 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 1 3/3 -58* 26 +84 20th → 39th 1.1 25% 11.0 / 14.5 -50*
14 Isejah Hamdorf '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 3 3/3 -24n* -64 -40 28th → 19th 0.3 57% 14.3 / 13.3 -24*
15 Stav Aroeti '28 University of California at Los Angeles Bruins 3 3/3 -32n* -76 -44 26th → 16th 0.4 57% 14.7 / 13.6 -32*
16 Claire Willoughby '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 1 3/3 -17n* -34 -17 30th → 25th 0.1 66% 15.3 / 12.8 -17*
17 Adrian Dubrow '30 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 2/3 71n* 81 +10 48th → 50th 0.0 87% 17.0 / 9.8 71*
17 Joshua Cheng '27 University of California at Berkeley Bears 2 1/3 -71* 8 +79 17th → 35th 0.3 39% 13.0 / 15.1 -67*
22 Elliot Peterson-Lester '29 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 4 3/3 -67n* -133 -65 18th → 6th 0.9 80% 20.3 / 14.8 -67*
23 Nicole Spry '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 1 3/3 -132* -174 -41 6th → 2nd 0.2 79% 21.3 / 17.5 -136*
24 Tristyn Abbott '29 Arizona State University Sun Devils 2 3/3 -90n* -149 -59 13th → 3rd 0.7 84% 22.0 / 15.7 -90*
25 Martina Mirabal '30 Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs 2 3/3 -133n* -299 -166 6th → 1st 3.2 93% 24.0 / 17.2 -133*