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Simulated results — this week

Monte Carlo race simulations built on the predicted lineups — win probability and average finish, not just a single guessed winner.

How this is built: for each regatta, every school's predicted skipper(s) and their current Plackett–Luce rating are pulled from the lineup predictions. Each simulated race perturbs every skipper's rating with independent Gumbel(0,1) noise and sorts descending — the Gumbel–max trick, which produces an exact draw from the Plackett–Luce distribution those ratings were originally fit under, so the simulation uses the same generative model as the ratings themselves, not a separate approximation. Each school's team score in a simulated race is the sum of its skippers' finishing positions (standard low‑point team scoring: lower wins). Repeated 5,000 times per regatta; win / top‑3 / average‑rank are the fraction of simulations each school actually won, placed top 3, or its mean finishing rank across all of them.

Every regatta this week

Rose Bowl
USC · 01/02/2027 · 2 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston College83%100%1.2
2U. S. Coast Guard Academy17%100%1.8
KP Women's Invite
Kings Point · 09/12/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Cornell University67%98%1.4
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges17%84%2.6
3University of Pennsylvania10%63%3.1
4Columbia University2%17%5.0
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1%6%6.4
6SUNY Maritime College1%8%6.0
KP Dinghy Open Invite
Kings Point · 09/12/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Princeton University26%63%3.0
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges17%51%3.6
3Fordham University16%47%3.8
4SUNY Maritime College11%35%4.5
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy11%37%4.4
6Cornell University11%33%4.6
ILCA North
Kings Point · 09/12/2026 · 7 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Hobart and William Smith Colleges25%63%3.0
2Penn State University21%59%3.2
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy16%49%3.6
4Fordham University14%43%4.0
5Webb Institute11%35%4.3
6Cornell University10%36%4.2
NEISA Women's Singlehanded Championship
Boston College · 09/18/2026 · 7 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Harvard University37%82%2.3
2Yale University23%68%2.9
3Brown University11%39%4.0
4Dartmouth College10%38%4.1
5Bowdoin College8%32%4.4
6Connecticut College7%26%4.7
NEISA Open Singlehanded Championship
Boston College · 09/18/2026 · 11 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Roger Williams University18%51%3.9
2Connecticut College16%44%4.3
3Boston College11%31%5.2
4Yale University10%33%5.1
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy10%31%5.3
6Brown University10%30%5.2
Regis Trophy
Boston University · 09/19/2026 · 16 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Harvard University32%71%2.9
2Yale University28%71%2.9
3Dartmouth College10%33%5.5
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology8%27%6.3
5Roger Williams University5%24%6.7
6University of Rhode Island4%14%8.2
SAISA Women's Top 9
Charleston · 09/19/2026 · 9 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1College of Charleston51%93%1.8
2Rollins College19%68%2.9
3University of South Florida12%50%3.6
4University of Miami8%37%4.1
5University of Florida3%13%6.0
6North Carolina State University3%15%5.7
Susan Rogers
Cornell · 09/19/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Cornell University83%99%1.2
2Fordham University7%66%3.0
3U. S. Merchant Marine Academy4%58%3.2
4University of Pennsylvania4%48%3.6
5Hobart and William Smith Colleges1%23%4.5
6SUNY Maritime College0%6%5.5
Hatch Brown Trophy 2026
MIT · 09/19/2026 · 16 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University25%59%3.6
2Boston College22%51%4.1
3Roger Williams University15%42%4.8
4Yale University8%28%6.0
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology7%24%6.5
6Tufts University5%17%7.6
SAISA Open Top 9
Charleston · 09/19/2026 · 9 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Florida State University17%48%3.9
2University of South Florida16%45%4.0
3Eckerd College16%46%4.1
4College of Charleston15%45%4.1
5Jacksonville University10%31%5.0
6University of Miami9%28%5.3
Mystic Lake Invite
Tufts · 09/19/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Roger Williams University34%80%2.3
2Boston College25%73%2.6
3Massachusetts Institute of Technology18%60%3.0
4Tufts University15%52%3.3
5Boston University7%28%4.2
6Harvard University1%6%5.6
Jack Boehringer '52 Open Invite
Cornell · 09/19/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Fordham University34%81%2.3
2University of Pennsylvania30%81%2.4
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges26%76%2.6
4Cornell University5%25%4.3
5U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3%21%4.5
6SUNY Maritime College2%15%4.8
Donaghy Bowl
U. Connecticut · 09/19/2026 · 5 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University85%99%1.2
2Sacred Heart University8%96%2.3
3University of Massachusetts at Amherst3%38%3.8
4Williams College3%35%3.7
5University of Connecticut2%31%4.0
GLIOR J105 Division
Chicago · 09/26/2026 · 10 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1U. S. Naval Academy21%56%3.5
2Brown University16%48%3.9
3Harvard University15%45%4.0
4College of Charleston13%41%4.3
5University of Rhode Island11%33%4.8
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy8%26%5.3
SMC Open
St. Mary's · 09/26/2026 · 7 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1U. S. Naval Academy36%84%2.2
2St. Mary's College of Maryland31%80%2.4
3Fordham University17%62%3.0
4University of Pennsylvania12%50%3.4
5Old Dominion University4%21%4.5
6Georgetown University0%2%6.3
SAISA Open Top 6 Invite
Eckerd · 09/26/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1College of Charleston33%77%2.5
2Florida State University17%54%3.3
3North Carolina State University16%49%3.5
4Jacksonville University13%47%3.6
5Eckerd College12%41%3.8
6University of Miami9%33%4.2
JAX Open
Jacksonville · 09/26/2026 · 7 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Jacksonville University45%91%1.9
2Rollins College38%91%2.0
3Palm Beach Atlantic University8%47%3.5
4University of Florida4%32%4.1
5University of South Florida4%32%4.1
6Embry-Riddle University1%8%5.3
Cayuga Clash
Cornell · 09/26/2026 · 2 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Cornell University100%100%1.0
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges0%100%2.0
GLIOR PHRF Division
Northwestern/Chicago · 09/26/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1University of Wisconsin24%64%3.0
2Northwestern University22%59%3.2
3University of Notre Dame16%51%3.6
4Miami University12%39%4.2
5Purdue University10%35%4.4
6University of Illinois7%22%5.3
Seneca Showdown
Hobart & William · 09/26/2026 · 2 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Cornell University76%100%1.2
2Hobart and William Smith Colleges24%100%1.8
CAZENOVIA FALL OPEN
Syracuse · 09/26/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Queen's University47%98%1.7
2Penn State University31%91%2.1
3Rochester Institute of Technology19%86%2.5
4University of Rochester2%19%4.0
5Loyola University Maryland0%6%4.7
6Syracuse University0%0%6.0
Boiler Cup
Purdue · 09/26/2026 · 2 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Saint Mary's College100%100%1.0
2Purdue University0%100%2.0
Bowdoin Mid Week Invite
Bowdoin College · 10/01/2026 · 4 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Bowdoin College51%97%1.7
2Maine Maritime Academy23%89%2.3
3Bates College21%86%2.4
4Colby College5%27%3.6
WACC Round 1B
Bowdoin College · 10/03/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Harvard University41%89%2.0
2Brown University28%74%2.6
3Roger Williams University17%62%3.2
4Northeastern University6%30%4.4
5Connecticut College3%18%5.2
6Bowdoin College3%15%5.3
WACC Round 1A
Dartmouth College · 10/03/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Yale University33%78%2.5
2Tufts University25%65%3.0
3Dartmouth College19%53%3.4
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology13%45%3.8
5University of Rhode Island5%26%4.8
6U. S. Coast Guard Academy5%27%4.8
Smith Trophy
Massachusetts Institute of Technology · 10/03/2026 · 17 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University27%63%3.3
2Boston College18%46%4.2
3Roger Williams University14%44%4.4
4Harvard University11%34%5.2
5Bowdoin College7%25%6.0
6Tufts University5%21%6.7
Match Race NE Champs
Maine Maritime Academy · 10/03/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University69%97%1.4
2Tufts University15%79%2.6
3Yale University10%64%3.1
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2%25%4.7
5Dartmouth College2%17%5.0
6Maine Maritime Academy1%10%5.7
Moody Trophy
University of Rhode Island · 10/03/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Roger Williams University45%87%2.0
2Connecticut College18%56%3.3
3University of Rhode Island17%63%3.2
4Boston University8%35%4.2
5Bowdoin College5%23%5.0
6Harvard University5%23%5.0
BU Invite
Boston University · 10/03/2026 · 9 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston College40%79%2.3
2Brown University28%70%2.8
3Tufts University9%37%4.4
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology8%37%4.4
5Roger Williams University7%35%4.6
6Northeastern University4%19%5.6
Charleston Fall
COC · 10/03/2026

Not enough predicted schools to simulate.

Stewart Walker Trophy
Middlebury College · 10/03/2026 · 5 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1McGill University72%96%1.4
2Middlebury College12%68%2.8
3University of Massachusetts at Amherst9%41%3.4
4Amherst College6%90%2.7
5Williams College1%5%4.8
McGill Cup
McGill University · 10/03/2026 · 3 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1McGill University65%100%1.4
2Amherst College28%100%1.7
3University of Massachusetts at Amherst7%100%2.9
Danmark Trophy
Coast Guard · 10/03/2026 · 20 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Stanford University15%38%5.6
2Brown University15%38%5.7
3Tulane University10%30%6.8
4Dartmouth College8%22%8.0
5U. S. Naval Academy7%24%7.7
6Yale University7%21%8.3
MCSA Match Race Championship
Michigan · 10/03/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1University of Wisconsin33%77%2.5
2University of Illinois22%75%2.6
3University of Michigan20%62%3.0
4University of Notre Dame18%55%3.3
5Northwestern University3%15%5.2
6University of Chicago2%10%5.7
Chenard Cup
Georgia Tech · 10/03/2026 · 11 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Auburn University37%79%2.4
2University of Tennessee24%73%2.8
3University of South Carolina23%70%2.9
4Vanderbilt University5%20%4.6
5University of North Carolina4%21%5.6
6University of Georgia2%12%6.7
Jesuit Open
Fordham · 10/03/2026 · 17 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1U. S. Naval Academy23%57%3.8
2Fordham University21%50%4.2
3University of Michigan14%42%4.8
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy7%26%6.5
5Princeton University6%19%7.4
6Yale University5%19%7.5
Sodus Bay Open
Rochester · 10/03/2026 · 10 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Queen's University45%90%2.0
2Cornell University33%78%2.5
3Hamilton College9%37%4.6
4Penn State Behrend5%34%4.0
5Penn State University3%18%6.1
6Mercyhurst University2%16%4.7
SHU Trophy
Sacred Heart University · 10/04/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brandeis University65%100%1.4
2Williams College19%84%2.5
3University of Connecticut9%51%3.4
4Worcester Polytechnic Institute5%36%4.0
5Massachusetts Maritime Academy1%23%4.4
6Fairfield University0%8%5.3
Stu Nelson
Connecticut College · 10/10/2026 · 9 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Yale University50%87%2.0
2Brown University17%58%3.3
3Dartmouth College12%46%3.9
4Harvard University11%49%3.7
5Massachusetts Institute of Technology4%20%5.4
6University of Rhode Island3%15%5.9
Sister Esther Trophy
Salve Regina University · 10/10/2026 · 16 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University20%52%3.9
2Harvard University17%47%4.4
3Boston College16%41%4.7
4Roger Williams University14%42%4.7
5Tufts University7%26%6.1
6Yale University6%21%6.6
Hewitt Trophy
Bowdoin College · 10/10/2026 · 13 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Bowdoin College23%57%3.4
2Boston College22%55%3.5
3Tufts University17%50%3.9
4Dartmouth College13%43%4.4
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy8%29%5.4
6Maine Maritime Academy6%22%6.0
Great Herring Pond Open
Massachusetts Maritime Academy · 10/10/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Northeastern University50%90%1.9
2University of New Hampshire13%55%3.5
3Massachusetts Maritime Academy12%45%3.9
4Olin College of Engineering11%45%3.9
5Bentley University9%43%3.5
6University of Massachusetts at Amherst3%16%5.6
Protest Trophy
Bates College · 10/10/2026 · 4 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Bates College33%76%2.4
2Williams College30%92%2.2
3Colby College25%79%2.4
4Middlebury College12%53%3.0
Richard Ross College Bowl
University of New Hampshire · 10/11/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Bentley University61%98%1.5
2Olin College of Engineering24%88%2.3
3University of New Hampshire9%62%3.3
4Williams College4%31%4.1
5Amherst College2%16%4.1
6Worcester Polytechnic Institute0%5%5.7
Captain Hurst
Dartmouth College · 10/17/2026 · 11 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University29%64%3.1
2Dartmouth College15%46%4.3
3Boston College12%34%5.0
4Yale University11%36%5.0
5Harvard University10%36%5.1
6Massachusetts Institute of Technology5%20%6.6
Savin Hill Invite
Boston College · 10/17/2026 · 11 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University34%76%2.6
2Boston College30%70%2.8
3Boston University8%30%5.0
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology8%36%4.8
5University of Rhode Island7%28%5.2
6Connecticut College4%18%6.2
Nevins
KP · 10/17/2026 · 4 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Yale University35%83%2.2
2Tufts University30%82%2.3
3Boston University19%64%2.8
4U. S. Coast Guard Academy16%70%2.7
Dave Perry Trophy
Yale University · 10/17/2026 · 4 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston College43%93%1.9
2Brown University30%87%2.2
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy18%72%2.7
4Yale University10%48%3.2
Peak Foliage
University of New Hampshire · 10/17/2026 · 18 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Maine Maritime Academy52%87%2.0
2Northeastern University10%42%4.8
3Boston University8%30%5.7
4McGill University5%27%6.2
5Fairfield University5%21%7.0
6Bentley University5%20%7.2
Reese's Cup
University of New Hampshire · 10/18/2026 · 15 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Maine Maritime Academy32%73%2.7
2Northeastern University29%77%2.6
3Salve Regina University16%56%3.8
4University of New Hampshire5%23%6.0
5McGill University5%21%6.2
6Massachusetts Maritime Academy3%13%7.4
Crew's Regatta
??? · 10/18/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University70%97%1.4
2Northeastern University24%85%2.2
3McGill University4%32%4.1
4Massachusetts Maritime Academy2%20%4.6
5Amherst College1%60%3.3
6Williams College0%8%5.3
Yale Women's
Yale University · 10/24/2026 · 10 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Harvard University25%62%3.2
2Yale University25%63%3.2
3Brown University15%42%4.2
4Tufts University10%37%4.8
5Dartmouth College8%27%5.4
6Roger Williams University8%29%5.3
Oberg Trophy
NU/MIT · 10/24/2026 · 12 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University32%72%2.7
2Roger Williams University24%64%3.1
3Dartmouth College18%54%3.5
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology10%37%4.4
5Tufts University6%26%5.1
6University of Rhode Island6%25%5.2
Norman Reid TR
Boston College · 10/24/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston College27%67%2.7
2Harvard University26%70%2.7
3Roger Williams University24%69%2.7
4Brown University14%51%3.3
5Tufts University8%39%3.9
6Bentley University0%3%5.6
Conn College Invite
Connecticut College · 10/24/2026 · 8 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1U. S. Coast Guard Academy35%85%2.2
2Brown University26%72%2.6
3University of Rhode Island20%70%2.9
4Connecticut College14%51%3.3
5Salve Regina University3%17%5.0
6Williams College1%3%5.8
Loder Trophy
University of New Hampshire · 10/24/2026 · 15 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston University37%75%2.7
2McGill University13%42%4.8
3Northeastern University13%47%4.4
4University of Vermont8%31%5.8
5University of Massachusetts at Amherst8%28%5.2
6Babson College5%15%7.4
Lane Trophy TR
Tufts University · 10/25/2026 · 6 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Boston College51%91%1.8
2Brown University29%86%2.3
3Boston University11%61%3.1
4Tufts University9%51%3.4
5Bentley University1%5%5.3
6McGill University1%7%5.1
Nickerson Trophy
Tufts University · 10/31/2026 · 12 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Brown University19%48%4.2
2Dartmouth College18%48%4.2
3Boston College13%36%5.0
4Yale University11%34%5.2
5Harvard University10%35%5.2
6Roger Williams University10%32%5.5
Terrier Invite
Boston University · 10/31/2026 · 9 schools · 5,000 simulations
SchoolWin %Top 3 %Avg. rank
1Harvard University26%58%3.4
2Boston University16%40%4.4
3Brown University14%43%4.3
4Tufts University9%31%5.2
5Roger Williams University8%30%5.2
6Bowdoin College7%24%5.6