Performance rating answers one question for each skipper: holding every other skipper's rating fixed, which rating makes my actual race-by-race finishes least surprising? It is the maximum-likelihood rating under the same Plackett–Luce model that produces the power rankings (how accurate it is), with each opponent fixed at their rating from the last rated week before this event (2026-W37). Substitute skippers are scored only on the races they sailed, and races the boat did not finish (OCS, DNF and similar) are left out.
Percentile places a rating among the 1,907 ICSA skippers who were rated within the year before this event, so it reads as “better than X% of the skippers racing in this league right now”. The arrow shows where the sailor stood going in and where this performance would put them.
Surprise is how many bits more surprising the sailor's finishes were at their pre-event rating than at their performance rating (0 = exactly as expected). P(this good or better) simulates the regatta 3,000 times with the sailor at their pre-event rating against the actual fleet, and reports how often they would score this many points or fewer in the races they skippered. Races in one regatta are not independent, so each simulation also gives every skipper a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of each boat the rotation puts them in (why). Low means an unusually good regatta, high means an unusually poor one. It deliberately ignores how rivals actually sailed, so it agrees with the performance rating rather than with the division finish, which also depends on everyone else's day. Ratings are shown on the rankings scale (model rating × 100). Only skippers are rated; crews are not part of the model.
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Trudell '28 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 5/5 | 313 | 429 | +116 | 92nd → 99th | 2.6 | 5% | 2.8 / 5.6 | 338 |
| 2 | Pierce Olsen '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 5/5 | 394 | 366 | -28 | 98th → 96th | 0.2 | 56% | 3.8 / 3.9 | 393 |
| 3 | Leo Robillard '29 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 5/5 | 309 | 372 | +62 | 92nd → 96th | 0.9 | 22% | 4.0 / 5.6 | 318 |
| 4 | Marina Conde '28 | Old Dominion University Big Blue | 5/5 | 291 | 347 | +56 | 89th → 95th | 0.7 | 22% | 4.4 / 6.0 | 289 |
| 5 | Davide Bazzoni '30 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 5/5 | 329 | 312 | -17 | 93rd → 92nd | 0.1 | 57% | 5.2 / 5.1 | 326 |
| 6 | Mason Cook '29 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 5/5 | 344 | 475 | +131 | 95th → 99th | 2.4 | 72% | 5.6 / 4.8 | 378 |
| 7 | Conrad Cook '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 5/5 | 266 | 240 | -26 | 87th → 83rd | 0.2 | 67% | 7.4 / 6.7 | 264 |
| 8 | Frank Wildi '29 | George Washington University | 4/5 | 66 | 246 | +180 | 53rd → 84th | 4.8 | 3% | 7.0 / 11.9 | 88 |
| 8 | Matthew Fremont-Smith '30 | George Washington University | 1/5 | 58n | 155 | +97 | 51st → 70th | 0.5 | 40% | 11.0 / 11.9 | 58 |
| 9 | Gianna Dewey '27 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 5/5 | 203 | 217 | +13 | 78th → 80th | 0.1 | 54% | 8.4 / 8.3 | 205 |
| 10 | James Lilyquist '28 | Virginia Tech | 5/5 | 208 | 113 | -95 | 79th → 62nd | 3.1 | 84% | 10.2 / 8.2 | 203 |
| 11 | Claire Sullivan '29 | Penn State University | 5/5 | 132 | 101 | -31 | 65th → 60th | 0.3 | 71% | 11.4 / 10.3 | 130 |
| 12 | Eli Leopold '28 | University of Maryland | 5/5 | 81 | 86 | +4 | 56th → 57th | 0.0 | 55% | 11.8 / 11.6 | 82 |
| 13 | Charlotte Stillman '27 | William and Mary | 5/5 | 78 | 91 | +13 | 56th → 58th | 0.0 | 60% | 12.2 / 11.7 | 78 |
| 14 | Berend Vandermeer '27 | Christopher Newport University | 5/5 | 28n | 65 | +37 | 46th → 53rd | 0.3 | 52% | 13.0 / 12.6 | 28 |
| 15 | Arda Alpan '29 | University of Virginia | 5/5 | 6 | -80 | -86 | 41st → 25th | 2.0 | 71% | 14.6 / 13.2 | -9 |
| 16 | Seton Dill '27 | University of Delaware | 5/5 | -112 | -51 | +61 | 18th → 30th | 0.7 | 43% | 15.4 / 15.5 | -114 |
| 17 | James Cottage '27 | American University | 5/5 | -11 | -130 | -118 | 38th → 15th | 3.5 | 96% | 16.4 / 13.7 | -16 |
| 18 | Jackson Manley '27 | Hampton University | 5/5 | -182 | -156 | +26 | 7th → 10th | 0.1 | 54% | 16.8 / 16.4 | -177 |
| Fin | Skipper | School | Races | Rating before |
Perf. rating |
Δ | Percentile before → perf. |
Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
Avg finish actual / exp. |
Rating after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Baker '30 | Georgetown University Hoyas 2 | 5/5 | 362 | 459 | +97 | 96th → 99th | 1.6 | 11% | 2.0 / 3.7 | 360 |
| 2 | Colin Krebs '30 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 2 | 5/5 | 277n | 399 | +122 | 88th → 98th | 2.9 | 18% | 2.8 / 5.8 | 277 |
| 3 | Fynn Olsen '29 | Georgetown University Hoyas 1 | 5/5 | 346 | 338 | -8 | 95th → 94th | 0.0 | 48% | 3.6 / 4.2 | 345 |
| 4 | Rhett Krawitt '30 | George Washington University | 5/5 | 206 | 267 | +61 | 78th → 87th | 0.9 | 17% | 5.0 / 7.2 | 215 |
| 5 | Scott Opert '28 | St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks 1 | 5/5 | 238 | 217 | -22 | 83rd → 80th | 0.1 | 47% | 6.0 / 6.4 | 239 |
| 5 | Stone Dewey '30 | Old Dominion University Monarchs | 5/5 | 230 | 247 | +17 | 82nd → 84th | 0.1 | 42% | 6.0 / 6.6 | 232 |
| 7 | Henry Scalise '30 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 1 | 5/5 | 154 | 213 | +59 | 69th → 79th | 0.8 | 18% | 6.4 / 8.6 | 161 |
| 8 | Jules Buczkowski '30 | U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen 2 | 5/5 | 253 | 232 | -21 | 85th → 82nd | 0.1 | 65% | 6.6 / 6.1 | 252 |
| 9 | Charlie Bates '30 | Penn State University | 5/5 | 72 | 113 | +41 | 54th → 62nd | 0.5 | 42% | 10.4 / 10.9 | 74 |
| 9 | Ivet Bejar '29 | Hampton University | 5/5 | 73 | 121 | +48 | 54th → 63rd | 0.6 | 42% | 10.4 / 10.9 | 79 |
| 11 | Tucker Mcgrady '30 | Virginia Tech | 5/5 | 161 | 73 | -88 | 71st → 54th | 2.3 | 85% | 10.6 / 8.4 | 157 |
| 12 | Jonah Willoughby '27 | Old Dominion University Big Blue | 5/5 | 128 | 30 | -98 | 65th → 46th | 3.0 | 80% | 11.6 / 9.4 | 121 |
| 13 | Brooke Lorson '27 | American University | 3/5 | 35 | 25 | -10 | 47th → 45th | 0.0 | 58% | 12.3 / 11.8 | 32 |
| 13 | Mitchell Janes '26 | American University | 2/5 | 28n | 40 | +12 | 46th → 48th | 0.0 | 69% | 14.0 / 11.6 | 28 |
| 14 | James Unger '27 | University of Virginia | 5/5 | -14 | -39 | -25 | 37th → 33rd | 0.2 | 74% | 14.2 / 13.0 | -15 |
| 15 | Jonathan Matney '27 | Christopher Newport University | 4/5 | -78n | -59 | +18 | 25th → 29th | 0.1 | 55% | 14.8 / 13.9 | -78 |
| 15 | Griffin Donahoe '28 | Christopher Newport University | 1/5 | 86 | 25 | -61 | 57th → 45th | 0.3 | 71% | 13.0 / 10.6 | 98 |
| 16 | Colin Cartwright '29 | William and Mary | 4/5 | -9 | -16 | -7 | 38th → 37th | 0.0 | 66% | 14.0 / 12.8 | 2 |
| 16 | Tyler Boissevain '28 | William and Mary | 1/5 | -137 | — | — | 13th → — | 2.7 | >99% | 18.0 / 15.3 | -139 |
| 17 | Caroline Fuller '28 | University of Maryland | 5/5 | -135 | -109 | +26 | 13th → 19th | 0.1 | 61% | 16.0 / 15.2 | -132 |
| 18 | Kylie Mccabe '28 | University of Delaware | 5/5 | -228 | -233 | -5 | 2nd → 2nd | 0.0 | 67% | 17.2 / 16.5 | -228 |
