Championship Predictions

← How accurate are the ratings?

Before each of 166 championship regattas, every model predicted each team's total points using only ratings from the week before the event. The site model's predicted totals were off by 20.8 points per team; the closest alternative, Previous site model (before the rating fix), was off by 22.8. Resampling whole regattas, the site model's edge over Previous site model is +1.69 to +2.41 points per team, and its totals were closer in 87% of regattas. Summed over every team, the site model's totals were 30.8 points closer per regatta, while adjacent teams in the final standings were typically 10.0 points apart.

How predicted totals work

A team's predicted total is the sum, over every race its boats sailed, of the points the ratings expect them to score, with penalties left out: adding each boat's penalty risk makes the totals worse, because the typical team takes no penalty at all. The simulated chances further down do include penalties. For each race, a boat's expected points combine two separate predictions. Its penalty score gives the chance it scores fleet size plus one for an OCS, DNF or DNS. Otherwise it finishes among the other boats that finish, in an order drawn from the ratings. Summing a team's expected points over every race and division gives its predicted total, and sorting the totals gives the predicted standings. Actual points are recomputed from the recorded finishes with the same scoring, so penalty boats score fleet size plus one and redress is counted as the boat's average finish.

Where the difference comes from. The site model before the rating fix was off by 22.84 points per team; the refitted ratings improved that to 20.79. Adding each boat's penalty risk to the totals as well worsened that to 21.05. Penalties are rare and lumpy: adding each boat's expected penalty points nudges every team's total up, which is right on average but wrong for the typical team that takes no penalties at all, so predicted totals leave it out. The simulated win chances and finish probabilities below still draw penalties race by race, where a rare, costly event belongs.

Results

A coin flip gives every team the same total, so it is off by 48.9 points per team and is left off the chart. “Site model closer in” counts regattas where the site model's totals were nearer the real ones than that row's.

How likely was each result?

Predicted totals say where teams should finish, but a regatta of a few dozen races still carries a lot of luck. To put a probability on each result, every championship was simulated 2,000 times at its real number of races, using the site model's ratings and penalty risks from the week before: every race, every division, every penalty, and the way results within a regatta move together. That gives each team a chance to win and a chance of finishing where it did or better, and it measures how surprising the final standings were. Each team also gets two percentiles in its regatta's table: how many of the simulated regattas it beat on finishing place, and how many it beat on points. A team at 90 finished ahead of, or scored fewer points than, nine simulations in ten, so high numbers mark a regatta that went better than the ratings expected.

If the probabilities are honest, teams given a win chance of about 30% should win about 30% of the time, and standings further from the prediction than 90% of simulations should turn up at about one championship in ten. They turned up at 8% of these 166 championships, and at the typical championship 61% of simulations were at least as far off as the real result.

Treating every race as an independent draw made the probabilities far too confident: standings that far off turned up at 57% of championships instead of about 10%, and teams given better than even odds averaged a 81% win chance but won 64% of the time. Races in one regatta are not independent (see how results within a regatta are correlated). So each simulated regatta gives every sailor a good or bad regatta, form that drifts from race to race, and the speed of whichever boat the rotation puts them in, with sizes fitted to those correlations and scaled on the 2024–25 championships. Swings are bigger for sailors whose ratings rest on fewer races. Ratings frozen a week ahead are a little too bunched together, so the gaps between them are stretched by 5%. A simpler version with only the good or bad regatta did about as well, with a slightly lower winners' log-loss of 1.103, against 1.115 for the full model. Far-off standings turned up at 5% of championships with the simpler version and 8% with the full model. The actual winners' average log-loss went from 1.372 with independent races to 1.115 (lower is better).

Every championship

Teams are listed in their actual finishing order. Predictions are the site model's, from the week before the event, with the finish predicted by Avg finish + penalties and the previous site model alongside.

Fall 2024

MISSA Girls Championship ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 10 teams · site model off 17.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.1 · winner's chance 5% · this far off in 1% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Culver Academies Eagles	39	76.5	+37.5	4	5%	97	100	5	3
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	42	41.9	-0.1	1	93%	18	63	2	1
3	Lake Forest High School Scouts	69	73.4	+4.4	3	41%	72	68	3	4
4	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	86	53.6	-32.4	2	97%	6	1	1	2
5	Minnetonka High School Skippers	91	109.5	+18.5	8	11%	93	89	4	8
6	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	96	122.6	+26.6	10	7%	96	96	10	10
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	101.1	101.4	+0.3	6	65%	44	46	7	6
8	New Trier HS Trevian	106	80.2	-25.8	5	99%	2	3	6	5
9	Loyola Academy Ramblers	121	118.2	-2.8	9	72%	43	37	9	9
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	129	102.7	-26.3	7	>99%	2	2	8	7

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Gold Fleet ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 12.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 14.5 · winner's chance 25% · this far off in 19% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	New Albany High School Eagles	28	35.2	+7.2	2	25%	88	80	2	2
2	Oakstone Academy Tigers	31	45.0	+14.0	4	24%	83	89	6	3
3	Blake School Bears	35	29.1	-5.9	1	84%	22	34	1	1
3	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	35	44.2	+9.2	3	40%	69	81	8	5
5	Rocky River High School Varsity	43	66.5	+23.5	7	21%	82	91	5	7
6	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	59	72.1	+13.1	10	16%	87	80	11	10
7	Spring Lake High School Red	60	51.5	-8.5	6	75%	30	27	4	6
8	Dublin Coffman Rocks	65	69.4	+4.4	9	40%	66	61	7	9
9	Loyola Academy Ramblers	74	73.7	-0.3	12	38%	67	48	13	13
10	Dublin Jerome Varsity	75	87.4	+12.4	14	23%	80	75	14	14
11	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	80	75.6	-4.4	13	60%	47	33	10	12
12	Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots	84	73.5	-10.5	11	78%	29	21	12	11
13	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	88	69.1	-18.9	8	95%	9	6	9	8
14	Grand Haven High School GH Blue Mixed	91	47.7	-43.3	5	>99%	0	0	3	4

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Green Division ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 6.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 9.9 · winner's chance 63% · this far off in 87% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	New Albany High School Eagles	8	16.8	+8.8	1	63%	69	99	1	1
2	Grand Haven High School GH Gold	17	23.4	+6.4	2	57%	60	83	2	2
3	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	21	37.6	+16.6	5	19%	86	98	6	5
4	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	32	36.1	+4.1	4	37%	70	70	4	3
5	Loyola Academy Ramblers	42	42.0	+0.0	8	32%	73	51	11	9
6	Birmingham Public Schools Seahawks	43	43.3	+0.3	9	40%	65	52	7	7
7	Rocky River High School Pirates	46	34.9	-11.1	3	74%	30	22	3	4
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	47	41.2	-5.8	7	69%	35	32	5	8
9	Bexley High School Lions	49	41.1	-7.9	6	82%	24	25	9	6
10	Westerville South High School Wildcats	54	63.8	+9.8	12	30%	76	76	12	12
11	Olentangy Berlin HS Bears	62	57.7	-4.3	11	64%	44	32	8	11
12	Vermilion High School Sailors	64	52.0	-12.0	10	89%	17	17	10	10
13	Bishop Watterson Eagles	69.6	65.9	-3.7	13	82%	30	33	13	13
14	Bath High School Fighting Bees	75	74.2	-0.8	14	>99%	26	43	14	14

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Red Division ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 13 teams · site model off 11.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.4 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in 8% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Blake School Bears	12	17.1	+5.1	1	60%	70	84	1	1
2	Spring Lake High School Red	17	26.3	+9.3	4	35%	75	90	2	3
3	Dublin Coffman Rocks	25	43.0	+18.0	8	6%	96	97	4	8
4	Oakstone Academy Tigers	27	26.2	-0.8	3	70%	39	52	3	2
5	Olentangy Liberty High School Patriots	30	43.5	+13.5	9	22%	83	91	9	9
6	Dublin Jerome Varsity	40	52.8	+12.8	10	12%	90	88	10	10
6	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Cubs	40	25.8	-14.2	2	92%	11	6	5	4
8	Olentangy High School Braves	52	42.1	-9.9	7	68%	39	18	6	7
9	Glenbrook South High School Titans	53	34.3	-18.7	5	96%	7	3	7	5
9	Upper Arlington UA Bears	53	65.6	+12.6	13	10%	92	88	13	13
11	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	55	41.8	-13.2	6	97%	6	13	8	6
12	Westerville North High School Warriors	67	62.6	-4.4	11	77%	35	28	12	12
13	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	75	64.8	-10.2	12	>99%	15	4	11	11

MISSA Great Oaks Qualifier: Silver Fleet ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 13 teams · site model off 11.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 13.7 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 7% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Vermilion High School Sailors	24	42.3	+18.3	7	10%	95	86	9	8
2	Bexley High School Lions	26	34.6	+8.6	4	15%	90	85	5	4
3	Glenbrook South High School Titans	28	21.5	-6.5	1	78%	29	28	2	1
4	Olentangy High School Braves	29	36.3	+7.3	6	35%	71	81	4	5
5	Upper Arlington UA Bears	32	52.0	+20.0	11	13%	90	94	11	11
6	Westerville North High School Varsity	35	53.6	+18.6	12	16%	86	91	12	12
7	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	36	36.2	+0.2	5	72%	34	54	7	6
8	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	41	28.6	-12.4	2	89%	13	18	3	2
9	Westerville South High School Wildcats	46	32.4	-13.6	3	92%	11	14	1	3
10	Olentangy Berlin HS Varsity	49	48.3	-0.7	10	73%	34	45	6	9
11	Bishop Watterson Eagles	55	45.5	-9.5	8	90%	15	19	8	7
12	Bath High School Fighting Bees	71	66.7	-4.3	13	54%	59	21	13	13
13	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	75	48.0	-27.0	9	>99%	6	1	10	10

W.I.N.B. Regatta ISSA · 09/21/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 32.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.4 · winner's chance 36% · this far off in 64% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Garfield High School Bulldogs	57	81.9	+24.9	1	36%	82	96	1	1
2	Olympia High School Bears 2	74	110.0	+36.0	4	19%	86	95	2	5
3	Orcas High School Vikings	75	100.7	+25.7	2	41%	67	93	8	2
4	Spring Street International School Green	84	141.8	+57.8	11	10%	93	99	12	12
5	Olympia High School Bears 1	90	139.3	+49.3	9	16%	87	98	10	11
6	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	106	116.7	+10.7	5	53%	51	65	6	4
7	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	112	127.2	+15.2	7	47%	57	73	13	7
8	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	120.6	117.1	-3.5	6	69%	35	48	4	6
9	Capital High School Cougars	124	147.3	+23.3	12	36%	69	84	5	9
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	150	140.4	-9.6	10	57%	47	34	7	8
11	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 1	164	147.3	-16.7	13	57%	48	24	11	13
12	Lincoln High School - Portland, OR Cardinals 2	169	152.8	-16.2	14	62%	42	23	14	14
13	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	173	159.4	-13.6	15	66%	41	23	15	15
14	Olympia High School Bears 3	202	135.2	-66.8	8	89%	16	2	9	10
15	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	219	102.8	-116.2	3	>99%	1	0	3	3

Women's ACC Round 1A ICSA · 09/28/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 22.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 37.4 · winner's chance 66% · this far off in 74% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	81	92.1	+11.1	1	66%	67	81	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	104	126.9	+22.9	2	32%	79	89	4	2
3	Yale University Bulldogs	108	143.4	+35.4	6	28%	78	94	6	6
4	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	134.6	+22.6	5	57%	52	88	2	3
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	120	129.1	+9.1	3	83%	25	73	8	4
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	174	195.5	+21.5	7	18%	87	78	10	8
7	Old Dominion University Monarchs	198.9	240.8	+41.9	13	6%	96	88	14	13
8	College of Charleston Cougars	203	132.9	-70.1	4	98%	3	1	3	5
9	Tufts University Jumbos	210	196.2	-13.8	8	70%	38	32	7	7
10	Jacksonville University Fins	227	217.2	-9.8	9	58%	49	35	9	9
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	233	229.6	-3.4	11	57%	51	43	13	12
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	245	218.9	-26.1	10	76%	29	22	11	10
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	249	238.1	-10.9	12	72%	35	34	12	14
14	Christopher Newport University Captains	264	261.9	-2.1	15	59%	50	44	16	15
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	265	294.2	+29.2	16	32%	75	83	15	16
16	Clemson University Tigers	287	252.0	-35.0	14	96%	9	9	5	11
17	Connecticut College Camels	330	302.8	-27.2	17	91%	29	9	18	17
18	University of Michigan Wolverines	344	355.7	+11.7	18	>99%	41	55	17	18

Women's ACC's Round 1B ICSA · 09/28/2024 · 17 teams · site model off 18.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 30.4 · winner's chance 43% · this far off in 46% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	97	100.7	+3.7	1	43%	78	65	1	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	103	143.6	+40.6	7	8%	94	96	9	6
3	Tulane University Green Wave	105	122.5	+17.5	3	44%	64	83	5	3
4	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	129	116.3	-12.7	2	71%	36	33	4	2
5	Brown University Bears	131	126.2	-4.8	5	65%	43	51	3	5
6	Roger Williams University Hawks	139	155.0	+16.0	8	38%	68	76	7	8
7	Northeastern University Huskies	143	139.9	-3.1	6	77%	30	48	10	7
8	Boston College Eagles	149	125.9	-23.1	4	95%	8	22	2	4
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	178	192.8	+14.8	10	38%	70	70	6	9
10	George Washington University Revolutionaries	205	182.2	-22.8	9	70%	39	17	11	10
11	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	226	284.2	+58.2	17	1%	100	98	12	17
12	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	231	209.7	-21.3	11	64%	43	20	8	12
13	Fordham University Rams	239	240.2	+1.2	15	35%	72	47	15	13
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	239	224.9	-14.1	13	58%	50	23	16	14
15	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	242	243.8	+1.8	16	65%	45	47	14	16
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	250	213.9	-36.1	12	99%	3	5	13	11
17	Boston University Terriers	255	238.1	-16.9	14	>99%	3	21	17	15

MISSA Southeast Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/28/2024 · 11 teams · site model off 13.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.4 · winner's chance 27% · this far off in 95% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	36	56.2	+20.2	2	27%	86	99	3	2
2	New Albany High School Eagles	38	65.8	+27.8	3	27%	82	100	2	3
3	Rocky River High School Varsity	54	47.8	-6.2	1	88%	18	40	1	1
4	Culver Academies Eagles	58	70.1	+12.1	4	63%	47	82	5	4
5	Dublin Coffman Rocks	71	81.7	+10.7	6	43%	65	78	4	5
6	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	84	84.0	+0.0	7	56%	53	49	6	7
7	Bexley High School Lions	96	80.4	-15.6	5	81%	28	14	7	6
8	Olentangy High School Braves	101	103.7	+2.7	9	48%	62	53	9	9
9	Worthington Kilbourne Wolf Pack	111	103.6	-7.4	8	68%	43	29	8	8
10	Olentangy Berlin HS Varsity	138	110.6	-27.4	10	73%	38	4	10	10
11	Westerville North High School Varsity	139	120.0	-19.0	11	>99%	22	3	11	11

SW Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/28/2024 · 12 teams · site model off 9.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.2 · winner's chance 80% · this far off in 89% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	29	29.9	+0.9	1	80%	60	65	1	1
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	39	41.2	+2.2	2	75%	53	68	2	2
3	New Trier HS Trevian	51	57.3	+6.3	3	43%	72	77	5	3
4	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	53	66.0	+13.0	6	38%	71	88	3	5
5	Latin School of Chicago Romans	61	64.4	+3.4	5	64%	47	66	6	6
6	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	68	63.0	-5.0	4	88%	22	36	4	4
7	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	77	78.9	+1.9	7	69%	45	57	7	7
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	96	109.2	+13.2	10	16%	90	80	10	10
8	Loyola Academy Ramblers	96	92.2	-3.8	8	59%	57	35	9	8
10	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	112	114.5	+2.5	12	43%	66	50	11	11
11	Glenbrook North High School Varsity	133	105.5	-27.5	9	88%	22	0	8	9
12	DePaul College Prep Rams	152	113.8	-38.2	11	>99%	16	0	12	12

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A ICSA · 10/05/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 29.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 75.1 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 51% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	195	237.0	+42.0	4	7%	96	93	4	4
2	Boston College Eagles	206	240.7	+34.7	5	19%	86	86	5	5
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	245	220.7	-24.3	3	52%	57	31	6	3
4	College of Charleston Cougars	247	253.8	+6.8	6	36%	71	61	8	6
5	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	254	255.5	+1.5	7	46%	62	57	9	7
5	Stanford University Cardinal	254	207.1	-46.9	2	88%	16	13	1	1
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	256	299.7	+43.7	8	38%	71	89	11	8
8	Yale University Bulldogs	266	197.0	-69.0	1	99%	1	5	2	2
9	Tufts University Jumbos	292	323.2	+31.2	9	52%	57	79	10	9
10	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	310	353.3	+43.3	12	43%	66	84	13	12
11	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	316	342.6	+26.6	10	70%	38	73	12	11
12	Jacksonville University Fins	372	352.3	-19.7	11	80%	28	31	3	10
13	Boston University Terriers	406	424.9	+18.9	14	38%	72	64	17	15
14	Fordham University Rams	435	414.3	-20.7	13	76%	36	23	14	13
15	Northeastern University Huskies	448	429.7	-18.3	15	91%	25	25	15	14
16	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	501	519.8	+18.8	17	37%	78	64	16	17
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	547	498.6	-48.4	16	97%	18	3	7	16
18	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	608	585.9	-22.1	18	>99%	46	10	18	18

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 10/05/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 24.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 59.9 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 67% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	132	193.5	+61.5	5	4%	98	98	6	4
2	Harvard University Crimson	134	131.3	-2.7	1	82%	28	56	1	1
3	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	159	159.2	+0.2	2	66%	44	59	7	2
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	172	191.4	+19.4	4	43%	65	79	3	5
5	Cornell University Big Red	176	218.4	+42.4	7	24%	81	93	5	9
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	176	218.9	+42.9	9	24%	80	91	10	8
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	185	197.0	+12.0	6	74%	32	68	13	6
8	Georgetown University Hoyas	198	180.9	-17.1	3	91%	12	34	2	3
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	207	218.6	+11.6	8	72%	35	67	11	7
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	239	223.6	-15.4	10	81%	25	32	12	10
11	Old Dominion University Monarchs	276	268.3	-7.7	11	49%	59	41	16	11
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	302	324.7	+22.7	16	13%	90	70	14	16
13	Webb Institute Clippers	316	280.0	-36.0	12	72%	37	9	4	13
14	Connecticut College Camels	320.8	328.7	+7.9	17	29%	76	54	15	17
15	Eckerd College Tritons	334	311.8	-22.2	14	68%	40	22	9	14
15	Florida State University Seminoles	334	318.0	-16.0	15	61%	48	28	17	15
17	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	367	291.4	-75.6	13	99%	4	1	8	12
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	417	390.3	-26.7	18	>99%	39	10	18	18

MISSA Great Lakes Last Chance Qualifier ISSA · 10/05/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 7.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 14.5 · winner's chance 81% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	29	50.2	+21.2	1	81%	59	100	1	1
2	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	70	78.8	+8.8	2	32%	80	78	4	2
3	Loyola Academy Ramblers	81	83.6	+2.6	3	40%	70	61	7	4
4	Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	85	83.9	-1.1	4	59%	49	48	2	6
5	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	96	89.5	-6.5	5	60%	48	35	5	5
6	Bay High School Varsity	98	90.3	-7.7	6	74%	33	32	6	3
7	DePaul College Prep Rams	105	102.4	-2.6	7	67%	42	40	3	7
8	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	117	113.2	-3.8	8	70%	42	32	8	8
9	Fenwick High School Friars	133	118.1	-14.9	9	>99%	21	8	9	9

Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Finals ICSA · 10/12/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 37.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.3 · winner's chance 59% · this far off in 34% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	151	182.1	+31.1	1	59%	71	89	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	198	220.6	+22.6	2	41%	71	78	2	2
3	Brown University Bears	239	299.6	+60.6	10	6%	96	93	8	10
3	Cornell University Big Red	239	248.0	+9.0	3	34%	72	63	6	4
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	240	254.7	+14.7	5	53%	53	68	3	3
6	Tulane University Green Wave	253	293.0	+40.0	9	30%	74	83	11	8
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	272	360.5	+88.5	15	5%	96	97	16	15
8	College of Charleston Cougars	293	287.2	-5.8	7	55%	51	46	5	7
9	Boston College Eagles	296	306.8	+10.8	11	45%	60	61	7	11
10	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	299	325.6	+26.6	12	42%	63	71	13	12
11	Harvard University Crimson	317	251.6	-65.4	4	95%	7	7	4	5
12	Dartmouth College Big Green	338	264.3	-73.7	6	95%	7	4	12	6
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	338.5	290.5	-48.0	8	92%	11	11	10	9
14	Roger Williams University Hawks	345	357.1	+12.1	14	59%	48	57	14	14
15	Northeastern University Huskies	382	329.4	-52.6	13	87%	17	9	17	13
16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	384	410.9	+26.9	18	40%	67	67	18	18
17	Tufts University Jumbos	433	381.3	-51.7	16	89%	20	5	15	16
18	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	448	408.8	-39.2	17	>99%	18	10	9	17

Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/12/2024 · 16 teams · site model off 35.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 48.9 · winner's chance 28% · this far off in 39% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	George Washington University Revolutionaries	144	183.4	+39.4	1	28%	86	94	3	2
2	Jacksonville University Fins	160	187.8	+27.8	2	41%	68	86	2	1
3	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	162	208.7	+46.7	5	35%	71	94	5	4
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	173	221.2	+48.2	7	32%	73	93	1	8
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	199	197.4	-1.6	3	70%	35	53	7	5
6	Christopher Newport University Captains	219	253.4	+34.4	9	22%	81	85	14	9
7	Boston University Terriers	241	213.0	-28.0	6	74%	30	22	8	6
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	262	208.1	-53.9	4	87%	17	6	9	3
9	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	271	323.0	+52.0	15	7%	94	89	4	14
10	University of Wisconsin Badgers	272	232.0	-40.0	8	88%	16	12	6	7
11	Connecticut College Camels	279	306.2	+27.2	14	29%	76	76	16	15
12	Fordham University Rams	285	279.6	-5.4	11	71%	36	40	10	10
13	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	293	298.3	+5.3	13	68%	41	54	13	13
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	330	297.7	-32.3	12	86%	23	13	11	12
15	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	337	270.3	-66.7	10	>99%	2	2	12	11
16	University of Michigan Wolverines	456	399.9	-56.1	16	>99%	44	0	15	16

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Final ICSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 17.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 18.3 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 36% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	92	94.8	+2.8	1	32%	84	59	1	1
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	99	139.2	+40.2	11	4%	97	95	5	10
2	Tulane University Green Wave	99	135.7	+36.7	9	5%	96	94	9	7
4	Harvard University Crimson	104	102.0	-2.0	2	59%	46	51	2	2
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	106	116.4	+10.4	5	48%	57	69	11	5
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	124	142.6	+18.6	12	20%	83	76	14	12
6	Yale University Bulldogs	124	110.7	-13.3	3	65%	39	30	3	3
8	Boston College Eagles	128	120.3	-7.7	6	63%	40	39	7	6
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	133	149.2	+16.2	14	25%	78	75	18	14
10	University of Miami Hurricanes	136	161.0	+25.0	18	20%	82	83	17	17
11	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	142	128.7	-13.3	7	70%	33	29	13	8
12	College of Charleston Cougars	144	131.4	-12.6	8	73%	30	31	12	9
13	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	148	150.0	+2.0	15	56%	48	49	15	15
14	Cornell University Big Red	149	153.8	+4.8	16	58%	46	55	10	16
15	Georgetown University Hoyas	150	138.3	-11.7	10	86%	17	30	6	11
16	Brown University Bears	155	114.1	-40.9	4	99%	2	5	4	4
17	Roger Williams University Hawks	160	149.0	-11.0	13	90%	14	31	8	13
18	Tufts University Jumbos	198	156.8	-41.2	17	>99%	7	2	16	18

Open Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 33.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 54.6 · winner's chance 22% · this far off in 48% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	90	158.4	+68.4	3	22%	89	100	5	3
2	Jacksonville University Fins	138	172.3	+34.3	4	27%	80	92	1	4
3	Northeastern University Huskies	155	232.7	+77.7	8	3%	98	99	14	9
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	159	157.0	-2.0	2	78%	29	57	2	2
5	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	175	145.9	-29.1	1	92%	11	24	6	1
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	180	206.5	+26.5	6	46%	60	84	10	6
7	Fordham University Rams	215	216.3	+1.3	7	49%	57	54	8	7
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	223	252.9	+29.9	13	21%	82	81	9	12
9	Eckerd College Tritons	233	235.2	+2.2	9	51%	53	52	7	8
10	Florida State University Seminoles	260	244.8	-15.2	11	53%	52	33	13	11
11	Boston University Terriers	262	235.4	-26.6	10	75%	31	20	15	10
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	281	292.6	+11.6	15	27%	78	59	12	15
13	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	289	200.2	-88.8	5	98%	3	1	3	5
14	Connecticut College Camels	296	252.8	-43.2	12	93%	12	8	11	13
15	Webb Institute Clippers	329	286.4	-42.6	14	94%	19	10	4	14
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	350	376.2	+26.2	16	51%	70	69	18	16
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	376	392.1	+16.1	18	59%	59	62	16	18
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	440	388.4	-51.6	17	>99%	19	0	17	17

2024 Great Lakes Championships ISSA · 10/19/2024 · 20 teams · site model off 24.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 34.4 · winner's chance 68% · this far off in 87% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	69	100.5	+31.5	1	68%	66	95	4	1
2	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	104	159.1	+55.1	3	19%	87	98	1	5
3	Black River Public School Varsity	110	136.9	+26.9	2	64%	46	89	2	2
4	Jones College Prep Eagles	157	211.9	+54.9	14	10%	92	92	8	14
5	West Bloomfield High School Lakers Varsity	176	174.9	-1.1	6	39%	66	52	5	4
6	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	177.3	190.1	+12.8	8	32%	72	69	9	7
7	Rocky River High School Varsity	180	170.9	-9.1	5	64%	40	42	3	3
8	New Trier HS Trevian	191	170.5	-20.5	4	71%	32	29	14	8
9	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	205	186.5	-18.5	7	61%	44	32	11	10
10	Latin School of Chicago Romans	210	207.3	-2.7	12	46%	59	47	16	13
11	Wayzata High School Navy	212	203.9	-8.1	11	60%	44	40	12	11
12	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	217	240.5	+23.5	16	31%	73	71	17	16
13	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	219	211.1	-7.9	13	68%	36	41	10	12
14	Spring Lake High School Red	230	199.4	-30.6	10	87%	17	19	6	9
15	New Albany High School Eagles	256	196.1	-59.9	9	96%	6	3	7	6
16	Minnetonka High School Skippers	272	306.1	+34.1	19	16%	88	78	15	19
17	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	275	238.5	-36.5	15	89%	16	13	13	15
18	Loyola Academy Ramblers	280	280.2	+0.2	17	77%	34	44	19	17
19	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	320	322.2	+2.2	20	54%	59	41	20	20
20	Lane Tech College Prep Champions	338	293.3	-44.7	18	>99%	8	5	18	18

MASSA Fall Fleet Championship ISSA · 10/19/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 37.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 57.9 · winner's chance 36% · this far off in 47% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	87	137.0	+50.0	2	36%	82	99	3	2
2	Severn School Admirals	115	128.8	+13.8	1	79%	37	84	1	1
3	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	119	165.2	+46.2	3	57%	57	98	4	3
4	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	211.6	238.4	+26.8	5	10%	94	83	7	5
5	Southern Regional High School Rams	213.4	168.8	-44.6	4	95%	9	11	2	4
6	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	231.3	255.5	+24.2	6	44%	65	74	5	6
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	249	428.7	+179.7	18	<1%	100	100	16	17
8	Key School Zags	267	256.8	-10.2	7	71%	36	43	6	7
9	Canisius High School Crusaders	279	285.7	+6.7	9	55%	52	59	10	8
10	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	290	275.1	-14.9	8	81%	25	35	14	9
11	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	310	307.8	-2.2	10	61%	46	49	11	10
12	Severna Park Falcons	361	309.2	-51.8	11	73%	33	8	17	11
13	Gunston Herons	362	348.8	-13.2	13	52%	55	31	9	13
14	Great Mills High School Hornets	369	352.1	-16.9	14	62%	46	28	13	14
15	Toms River South Indians	376	336.9	-39.1	12	86%	20	14	12	12
16	West Irondequoit Eagles	388	367.1	-20.9	16	81%	28	25	15	16
17	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	427	413.2	-13.8	17	70%	45	24	18	18
18	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	449	355.0	-94.0	15	>99%	2	1	8	15

SAISA Fall Women's Championship ICSA · 10/25/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 25.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 63.1 · winner's chance 68% · this far off in 94% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	93	136.4	+43.4	1	68%	66	99	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	138	157.3	+19.3	2	78%	46	84	3	2
3	Jacksonville University Fins	231	194.8	-36.2	3	78%	50	13	4	3
4	Clemson University Tigers	234	233.1	-0.9	4	81%	47	53	2	4
5	Rollins College Tars	268	285.2	+17.2	5	70%	56	74	6	5
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	338	316.6	-21.4	6	81%	44	25	7	6
7	Florida State University Seminoles	359	388.6	+29.6	8	38%	77	78	8	8
8	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	386	370.8	-15.2	7	97%	19	29	5	7
9	University of Central Florida Knights	527	482.1	-44.9	9	>99%	45	0	9	9

MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 24.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.5 · winner's chance 46% · this far off in 72% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	59	93.9	+34.9	2	46%	77	99	2	2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	91.2	-20.8	1	92%	28	21	1	1
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	126	134.9	+8.9	3	68%	58	72	6	3
4	Old Dominion University Monarchs	130	172.3	+42.3	5	34%	77	96	9	4
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	149	188.0	+39.0	6	34%	75	95	4	6
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	199	194.5	-4.5	8	43%	64	44	3	7
7	Christopher Newport University Captains	215	223.3	+8.3	9	20%	85	62	13	9
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	218	171.6	-46.4	4	92%	11	5	7	5
9	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	225	190.0	-35.0	7	91%	14	11	10	8
10	Fordham University Rams	230	233.3	+3.3	10	64%	48	55	11	10
11	Columbia University Lions	237	254.9	+17.9	12	56%	56	71	5	11
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	242	247.2	+5.2	11	90%	23	55	12	12
13	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	292	307.0	+15.0	14	41%	73	63	15	15
14	Princeton University Tigers	303	311.2	+8.2	15	62%	54	57	14	14
15	Rochester Institute of Technology Tigers	388	306.5	-81.5	13	>99%	15	0	8	13

NEISA Fall Tournament ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 12 teams · site model off 28.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 46.8 · winner's chance 75% · this far off in 31% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Salve Regina University Seahawks	69	83.2	+14.2	1	75%	63	93	3	1
2	Fairfield University Stags	84	103.1	+19.1	2	81%	48	93	1	2
3	University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen	139	170.6	+31.6	7	13%	92	90	6	5
4	McGill University Redbirds	144	153.8	+9.8	4	48%	62	68	5	4
4	Middlebury College Panthers	144	149.5	+5.5	3	54%	56	63	2	3
6	Olin College of Engineering Phoenix	147	164.4	+17.4	6	74%	35	78	10	7
7	Bentley University Falcons	175	221.4	+46.4	8	20%	85	94	7	10
8	Bates College Bobcats	204	161.3	-42.7	5	97%	6	5	4	6
9	Wentworth Institute of Technology Leopards	263	242.7	-20.3	11	37%	71	16	11	11
10	Worcester Polytechnic Institute Worcester Polytech	266	269.1	+3.1	12	23%	84	40	8	12
11	Brandeis University Judges	277	226.9	-50.1	9	92%	16	2	9	8
12	University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth Corsairs	321	237.9	-83.1	10	>99%	6	0	12	9

PCCSC Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 9 teams · site model off 32.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 48.0 · winner's chance 99% · this far off in 85% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	64	91.5	+27.5	1	99%	50	99	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	159	203.9	+44.9	2	55%	72	93	3	3
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	257	235.9	-21.1	3	59%	55	39	2	2
4	University of California at Berkeley Bears	273	285.3	+12.3	6	40%	71	67	5	5
5	University of Southern California Trojans	286	285.3	-0.7	5	69%	44	52	4	4
6	University of Washington Huskies	317	282.2	-34.8	4	98%	15	23	6	6
7	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	410	452.5	+42.5	8	36%	80	74	7	7
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	418	435.3	+17.3	7	79%	40	63	9	8
9	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	559	464.1	-94.9	9	>99%	22	0	8	9

SAISA Fall Open Champs, Robert L. Armstrong Trophy ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 32.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 74.6 · winner's chance 87% · this far off in 27% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	79	83.9	+4.9	1	87%	57	75	3	1
2	Jacksonville University Fins	122	118.5	-3.5	2	88%	49	56	1	2
3	University of South Florida Bulls	142	192.2	+50.2	4	28%	84	97	9	4
4	Eckerd College Tritons	176	176.0	+0.0	3	72%	40	60	7	3
5	Rollins College Tars	207	265.5	+58.5	8	8%	95	97	11	8
6	The Citadel Bulldogs	221.1	301.7	+80.6	10	4%	97	98	6	9
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	246	217.5	-28.5	6	87%	22	22	4	7
7	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	246	209.7	-36.3	5	88%	19	18	5	5
9	Clemson University Tigers	270	231.0	-39.0	7	96%	8	15	2	6
10	Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	292	367.8	+75.8	13	16%	88	95	12	15
11	Florida State University Seminoles	296	301.2	+5.2	9	80%	27	56	18	10
12	University of Central Florida Knights	374	393.9	+19.9	16	13%	90	67	17	16
13	Duke University Blue Devils	383	356.4	-26.6	12	62%	44	21	10	11
14	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	395	348.5	-46.5	11	80%	25	8	14	12
15	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	396	379.5	-16.5	15	67%	41	26	13	14
16	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	406	370.7	-35.3	14	87%	18	11	8	13
17	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	422	406.4	-15.6	17	75%	36	25	16	18
18	Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	456	409.6	-46.4	18	>99%	15	4	15	17

Schell Trophy NEISA Open Championship ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 17.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.2 · winner's chance 18% · this far off in 77% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	94	155.3	+61.3	2	18%	91	100	6	2
2	Harvard University Crimson	137	134.8	-2.2	1	69%	41	54	1	1
3	Yale University Bulldogs	159	171.8	+12.8	5	34%	73	73	2	5
4	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	167	212.4	+45.4	9	13%	90	94	11	9
5	Brown University Bears	178	168.4	-9.6	4	69%	38	42	4	4
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	187	191.1	+4.1	6	48%	58	61	5	6
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	198	200.4	+2.4	7	52%	54	56	10	7
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	209	203.4	-5.6	8	61%	47	46	7	8
9	Boston College Eagles	215	163.2	-51.8	3	97%	5	5	3	3
10	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	216	216.9	+0.9	10	76%	32	52	9	10
11	Tufts University Jumbos	239	225.9	-13.1	11	88%	23	35	8	11
12	Boston University Terriers	284	295.8	+11.8	13	34%	77	62	17	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	295	308.7	+13.7	14	46%	66	62	12	14
14	Northeastern University Huskies	313	290.8	-22.2	12	86%	24	18	15	12
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	330	315.6	-14.4	15	95%	22	25	16	15
16	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	383	380.8	-2.2	16	64%	63	37	13	16
17	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	409	407.3	-1.7	18	50%	67	37	18	18
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	437	403.5	-33.5	17	>99%	19	2	14	17

War Memorial ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 31.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 86.7 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 54% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	156	208.4	+52.4	3	12%	94	98	7	4
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	159	170.4	+11.4	1	74%	39	76	3	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	182	189.5	+7.5	2	75%	36	68	1	2
4	Fordham University Rams	195	297.5	+102.5	10	4%	97	100	9	10
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	225	214.8	-10.2	4	80%	28	47	4	3
6	Cornell University Big Red	256	282.2	+26.2	6	33%	74	78	6	6
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	263	224.9	-38.1	5	91%	13	21	5	5
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	274	283.0	+9.0	7	65%	43	62	11	8
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	279	290.4	+11.4	9	78%	31	65	10	7
10	Webb Institute Clippers	312	285.4	-26.6	8	95%	12	27	2	9
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	350	415.7	+65.7	13	16%	90	95	16	13
12	Hampton University Pirates	395	376.8	-18.2	11	76%	35	30	8	11
13	Christopher Newport University Captains	419	401.3	-17.7	12	79%	33	30	15	12
14	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	476	471.9	-4.1	15	43%	68	38	18	15
15	Princeton University Tigers	489	439.7	-49.3	14	91%	20	8	14	14
16	Washington College Shoremen	551	518.1	-32.9	16	56%	62	9	17	16
17	Drexel University Dragons	582	555.2	-26.8	18	46%	68	12	12	18
18	University of Virginia Wahoos	594	530.9	-63.1	17	>99%	12	1	13	17

Women's Urn Trophy/NEISA Women’s Fall Champs ICSA · 10/26/2024 · 17 teams · site model off 25.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.7 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 11% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	124	158.8	+34.8	2	4%	98	94	2	2
2	Brown University Bears	139.9	178.0	+38.1	4	15%	92	93	3	4
3	Yale University Bulldogs	141	99.0	-42.0	1	99%	2	6	1	1
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	161	210.4	+49.4	8	16%	88	96	8	8
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	181	165.6	-15.4	3	79%	28	36	6	3
6	Boston College Eagles	184	182.4	-1.6	5	72%	36	54	4	5
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	196	182.5	-13.5	6	87%	20	37	5	6
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	250	264.9	+14.9	10	20%	85	66	10	11
9	Tufts University Jumbos	256	249.9	-6.1	9	51%	61	41	9	9
10	Northeastern University Huskies	263.7	206.0	-57.7	7	96%	6	3	11	7
11	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	264	274.9	+10.9	11	64%	46	60	7	10
12	Boston University Terriers	302	330.3	+28.3	14	21%	85	77	14	14
13	Connecticut College Camels	312	347.2	+35.2	15	22%	85	85	17	15
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	316.5	281.5	-35.0	12	98%	5	10	12	12
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	347	322.6	-24.4	13	94%	15	15	13	13
16	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	370	374.8	+4.8	16	98%	31	47	15	16
17	Middlebury College Panthers	479	455.3	-23.7	17	>99%	49	0	16	17

Fall Championships (RR#1) ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 15 teams · site model off 26.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 29.1 · winner's chance 16% · this far off in 93% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Garfield High School Bulldogs	85	128.3	+43.3	3	16%	92	98	1	3
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	102	132.6	+30.6	4	29%	79	91	3	4
3	Gig Harbor High School Tides	109	115.5	+6.5	1	71%	38	70	4	1
4	Olympia High School Bears	117	159.6	+42.6	6	24%	80	97	5	6
5	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	124	142.4	+18.4	5	60%	47	77	6	5
6	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	129	119.0	-10.0	2	91%	13	41	2	2
7	Ballard High School Beavers	152	174.0	+22.0	8	40%	66	82	8	9
8	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	177.5	179.4	+1.9	10	47%	58	53	7	8
9	Orcas High School Vikings	183	179.0	-4.0	9	60%	46	44	10	10
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	221	173.3	-47.7	7	82%	24	3	9	7
11	Squalicum High School Storm	237	201.4	-35.6	11	58%	49	10	12	11
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	244	204.6	-39.4	12	73%	36	6	13	12
13	Sehome High School Mariners	256	216.9	-39.1	13	76%	34	7	11	13
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	258	274.5	+16.5	15	27%	81	63	15	15
15	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	274	239.7	-34.3	14	>99%	7	4	14	14

Fall Championships Gallium Fleet ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 10 teams · site model off 19.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.6 · winner's chance 2% · this far off in 1% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	31	60.5	+29.5	6	2%	99	99	5	6
2	Anacortes High School /Squalicum	37	72.7	+35.7	10	2%	99	99	10	10
3	Peninsula High School Seahawks	40	61.5	+21.5	7	13%	91	96	7	5
4	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	42	41.6	-0.4	3	74%	33	54	3	3
5	Roosevelt High School Gold	63	25.3	-37.7	1	98%	3	1	1	1
6	North Thurston High School Rams	64	59.9	-4.1	5	55%	52	34	8	7
6	Olympia High School Bears	64	40.7	-23.3	2	90%	12	5	2	2
8	Gig Harbor High School Tides	71	64.3	-6.7	8	69%	38	30	6	8
9	Ballard High School Beavers	75	66.5	-8.5	9	84%	24	21	9	9
10	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	82	57.0	-25.0	4	>99%	4	4	4	4

Fall Championships Silver Fleet ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 21.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.3 · winner's chance 6% · this far off in 57% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 1	37	81.8	+44.8	6	6%	97	99	7	5
2	Olympia High School Bears	50	70.9	+20.9	2	26%	81	90	4	2
3	Anacortes High School White	54	73.4	+19.4	3	35%	71	89	5	3
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	71	91.2	+20.2	9	23%	81	82	9	9
5	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	74	80.3	+6.3	5	45%	61	65	2	6
6	Capital High School Cougars	75	83.2	+8.2	7	50%	55	68	8	7
7	Roosevelt High School Green	83	55.5	-27.5	1	93%	9	10	1	1
8	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	87	83.5	-3.5	8	66%	38	45	3	8
9	Orcas High School Vikings	99	79.5	-19.5	4	82%	22	19	6	4
10	Gig Harbor High School Tides	102	115.8	+13.8	13	35%	69	71	12	12
11	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	104	113.2	+9.2	12	56%	50	61	13	13
12	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals 2	124	97.6	-26.4	10	84%	21	13	11	10
13	Sehome High School Mariners	142	99.0	-43.0	11	96%	9	1	10	11
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	167	135.0	-32.0	14	>99%	25	0	14	14

MASSA Fall Invitational ISSA · 10/26/2024 · 16 teams · site model off 30.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.0 · winner's chance 61% · this far off in 19% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	62.4	67.9	+5.5	1	61%	70	77	2	1
2	Leonardtown High School Raiders	101	132.0	+31.0	4	10%	94	90	3	4
3	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	103	165.2	+62.2	8	3%	98	100	13	8
4	Severn School Admirals	105	77.7	-27.3	2	96%	7	23	1	2
5	Henderson High School Warriors	121	143.1	+22.1	5	48%	61	82	5	6
6	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	122	158.7	+36.7	7	38%	69	94	7	7
7	Ranney School Panthers	137	145.3	+8.3	6	75%	33	69	8	5
8	Maury High School Commodores	143	112.4	-30.6	3	99%	2	12	4	3
9	St. John the Baptist Cougars	170	221.7	+51.7	12	24%	79	84	12	12
10	Delbarton School Green Wave	200	181.1	-18.9	9	69%	38	22	6	9
11	Walt Whitman High School Vikings	210	229.2	+19.2	15	23%	82	69	16	15
12	Broadneck High School Bruins	213	224.3	+11.3	13	39%	68	59	14	13
13	The Hague School Tritons	227	228.2	+1.2	14	48%	59	44	15	16
14	South River High School Seahawks	252	194.5	-57.5	10	95%	9	0	10	10
15	City Honors School Centaurs	266	231.1	-34.9	16	79%	30	6	11	14
16	Kenmore East High School Kenmore East	281	207.5	-73.5	11	>99%	4	0	9	11

SEISA Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/27/2024 · 5 teams · site model off 8.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.1 · winner's chance 93% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	15	22.6	+7.6	1	93%	53	100	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	36	39.7	+3.7	2	89%	52	77	2	2
3	University of Texas Longhorns	59	66.2	+7.2	3	46%	74	72	5	4
4	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	78	68.1	-9.9	4	76%	42	15	4	3
5	University of Kansas Jayhawks	90	78.3	-11.7	5	>99%	27	5	3	5

MCSA Open Fall Championship ICSA · 11/02/2024 · 14 teams · site model off 18.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.0 · winner's chance 6% · this far off in 60% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Northwestern University Wildcats	65	110.0	+45.0	3	6%	97	100	8	5
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	76	71.8	-4.2	1	89%	19	51	1	1
3	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	98	108.3	+10.3	2	46%	64	76	4	2
4	Michigan Technological University Husky One	110	117.2	+7.2	5	46%	62	68	2	4
5	Marquette University Golden Eagles	117	138.8	+21.8	8	29%	75	81	7	6
6	Indiana University Hoosiers	118	110.2	-7.8	4	80%	25	41	3	3
7	University of Wisconsin Badgers	121	119.9	-1.1	6	85%	21	50	13	8
8	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	130	134.1	+4.1	7	84%	24	59	5	7
9	Purdue University Boilermakers	152	173.8	+21.8	10	43%	68	81	9	10
10	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	179	198.7	+19.7	12	21%	86	80	11	12
11	Washington University Bears	209	168.3	-40.7	9	87%	21	3	6	9
12	Ohio State University Buckeyes	222	188.5	-33.5	11	88%	24	3	10	11
13	Grand Valley State University Lakers	247	213.9	-33.1	13	85%	34	5	12	13
14	Western Michigan University Broncos	256	246.6	-9.4	14	>99%	40	19	14	14

2024 Anteater Regatta - GOLD ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 32 teams · site model off 22.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 52.8 · winner's chance 66% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	42	73.4	+31.4	1	66%	67	98	1	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	90	100.5	+10.5	2	50%	67	76	3	2
3	Point Loma High School Pointers 3	110	170.7	+60.7	7	9%	94	95	14	9
4	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	112	118.8	+6.8	3	63%	46	69	4	3
5	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	120	133.0	+13.0	4	55%	51	73	7	4
6	San Marcos High School Knights 1	128	144.0	+16.0	5	57%	49	74	6	5
7	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	154	187.1	+33.1	11	25%	79	84	8	12
8	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 3	157	179.4	+22.4	10	42%	62	74	2	10
9	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	165.3	207.9	+42.6	14	26%	77	85	22	14
10	Santa Barbara High School Dons	170	173.1	+3.1	9	63%	41	58	17	7
11	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	181	171.6	-9.4	8	69%	34	46	9	6
12	Santa Monica High School Vikings	215	170.3	-44.7	6	77%	26	17	15	8
13	Redwood Giants 1	217	198.3	-18.7	12	64%	39	32	5	11
14	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 2	240	248.2	+8.2	16	27%	76	56	21	16
15	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 1	242	239.7	-2.3	15	39%	64	47	30	15
15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors 1	242	204.7	-37.3	13	73%	30	16	23	13
17	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	256	259.1	+3.1	20	34%	70	51	20	18
18	Dos Pueblos Chargers	268	272.6	+4.6	21	33%	69	51	13	21
19	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	273	295.9	+22.9	26	21%	81	67	11	24
20	Alameda High School Hornets	279	281.7	+2.7	23	36%	67	48	18	22
21	Redwood Giants 2	283	275.5	-7.5	22	47%	56	41	19	23
22	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	290	285.6	-4.4	24	44%	59	43	27	26
23	Crossroads Varsity	300	252.5	-47.5	18	74%	28	15	26	19
24	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	302	253.5	-48.5	19	83%	19	10	16	17
25	Parker	304	313.7	+9.7	28	38%	66	55	31	28
26	San Marcos High School Knights 2	318	249.8	-68.2	17	89%	13	6	32	20
27	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	319	301.9	-17.1	27	65%	38	30	10	25
28	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	321	315.3	-5.7	29	62%	42	40	28	30
29	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	331	347.7	+16.7	31	45%	60	58	25	31
30	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer 2	336	286.6	-49.4	25	94%	9	10	29	27
31	San Pedro High School Pirates	355	321.1	-33.9	30	91%	14	13	12	29
32	SF University High School Red Devils	364	358.6	-5.4	32	>99%	18	38	24	32

2024 Anteater Regatta - SILVER ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 33 teams · site model off 54.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 67.8 · winner's chance 39% · this far off in 7% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	31	103.3	+72.3	1	39%	81	100	3	2
2	Design Tech High School Dragons	99	221.4	+122.4	13	1%	100	100	13	14
3	Stevenson School Pirates	104	110.5	+6.5	2	69%	39	72	1	1
4	Coronado Islanders Islanders	112	259.8	+147.8	20	2%	98	100	24	22
5	South High School Spartans	123	148.5	+25.5	3	53%	52	85	5	5
6	Parker	141	184.1	+43.1	6	33%	71	88	8	7
7	Bishop's School Knights	154	204.4	+50.4	11	22%	80	92	11	12
8	Pacific Palisades Charter High School Pacific Palisades Ch	162	200.3	+38.3	10	32%	71	83	12	10
9	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	173	154.9	-18.1	5	74%	29	42	7	4
10	Urban School of San Francisco Blues	200	215.3	+15.3	12	33%	69	65	17	11
11	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	208	313.3	+105.3	29	1%	99	99	31	30
12	St. John Bosco High School Braves	210	235.9	+25.9	17	29%	74	71	16	16
13	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	212	280.2	+68.2	24	7%	93	95	27	26
14	Henry M. Gunn High School Titans	217	251.8	+34.8	18	30%	72	76	15	17
15	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	222	256.8	+34.8	19	26%	76	80	18	23
16	La Jolla High School Vikings	224	224.2	+0.2	14	56%	45	53	33	18
17	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	231	192.9	-38.1	8	83%	19	24	10	9
18	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	236	282.9	+46.9	25	22%	80	86	26	25
19	Laguna Blanca School Varsity	251	152.8	-98.2	4	98%	2	2	2	3
20	Ravens	262	272.6	+10.6	21	47%	55	52	21	19
21	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	277	227.5	-49.5	15	82%	20	12	14	15
22	Miramonte High School Matadors	281	301.4	+20.4	27	29%	73	64	25	29
22	San Domenico High School Panthers	281	184.3	-96.7	7	92%	9	6	6	6
24	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	283	228.7	-54.3	16	88%	13	13	9	13
25	Coastal Academy High School Stingrays	287	314.5	+27.5	30	36%	66	68	29	31
26	Loyola High School (CA) Cubs	293	197.1	-95.9	9	96%	4	4	4	8
27	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	313	307.2	-5.8	28	56%	47	39	28	28
28	Monterey High School Toreadores	322	286.4	-35.6	26	73%	29	24	19	24
29	Falcons 1	353	272.6	-80.4	21	82%	20	9	21	19
30	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	383	316.4	-66.6	31	73%	31	3	20	27
31	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	384	333.8	-50.2	32	73%	34	5	30	32
32	Falcons 2	409	272.6	-136.4	21	94%	9	1	21	19
33	Park City High School Miners	420	345.8	-74.2	33	>99%	12	4	32	33

MDISA JV Championship ISSA · 11/09/2024 · 18 teams · site model off 18.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 22.5 · winner's chance 84% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	17.5	41.1	+23.6	1	84%	58	100	1	1
2	Gilman School Greyhounds	77	91.0	+14.0	2	21%	88	77	10	2
3	Patuxent Panthers	81	98.6	+17.6	5	20%	85	84	3	4
4	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	83	94.0	+11.0	4	41%	64	71	2	5
5	Leonardtown High School Raiders	86	124.9	+38.9	12	15%	88	94	9	12
6	Gunston Herons	93	109.6	+16.6	6	37%	67	77	5	6
7	Hereford High School Bulls	95	91.1	-3.9	3	73%	30	48	13	3
8	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	98	110.2	+12.2	7	50%	53	67	12	10
9	Walt Whitman High School Vikings	99	115.7	+16.7	10	50%	54	75	7	9
10	Great Mills High School Hornets	101	117.1	+16.1	11	54%	50	74	4	11
11	South River High School Seahawks	118	126.9	+8.9	13	47%	56	62	6	13
12	Calvert Hall College High School Cardinals	132	114.7	-17.3	8	73%	30	23	11	8
13	Washington Latin Lions	142	134.7	-7.3	14	52%	52	34	14	15
14	Indian Creek School Eagles	151	138.2	-12.8	17	57%	47	23	15	17
15	Key School Zags	155	115.2	-39.8	9	90%	12	5	8	7
16	Washington Liberty High School Washington Liberty	163	156.6	-6.4	18	53%	54	29	18	18
17	Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	167	137.4	-29.6	16	90%	15	8	17	14
18	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	173	134.9	-38.1	15	>99%	7	7	16	16

Fall Pacific Coast Championship ICSA · 11/16/2024 · 19 teams · site model off 24.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.7 · winner's chance 96% · this far off in 28% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	60	68.1	+8.1	1	96%	52	78	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	122	137.7	+15.7	2	39%	80	77	2	4
3	San Diego State University Varsity Aztecs	130	210.3	+80.3	9	4%	98	100	9	10
4	University of Southern California Trojans	158	176.6	+18.6	5	31%	75	76	6	6
5	University of Hawaii Rainbows	160	143.3	-16.7	3	82%	23	35	8	2
6	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	174	208.1	+34.1	8	24%	80	86	5	9
7	Western Washington University Vikings	189	211.0	+22.0	10	34%	71	76	4	8
8	University of Washington Huskies	196.7	163.5	-33.2	4	91%	12	17	3	3
9	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	197	190.1	-6.9	7	82%	24	43	11	7
10	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	205	179.6	-25.4	6	93%	10	26	7	5
11	University of California at Berkeley Bears	236	216.2	-19.8	11	83%	24	30	10	11
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	273	270.2	-2.8	13	48%	63	46	14	13
13	University of California at San Diego Tritons 1	306	312.9	+6.9	14	25%	82	55	12	14
14	University of California at Davis Aggies	333	263.3	-69.7	12	94%	12	1	13	12
14	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	333	322.7	-10.3	15	39%	72	35	15	15
16	Vikes	358	375.7	+17.7	18	35%	72	57	17	18
17	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	362	359.8	-2.2	17	67%	46	39	18	17
18	University of California at San Diego Tritons 2	365	395.0	+30.0	19	49%	64	78	19	19
19	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	402	355.7	-46.3	16	>99%	5	3	16	16

Spring 2025

NWISA Gold Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/15/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 19.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 26.0 · winner's chance 2% · this far off in 91% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Ballard High School Beavers	67	135.4	+68.4	7	2%	99	100	8	7
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	89	95.4	+6.4	3	44%	67	69	2	3
3	Ingraham High School Rams	98	115.0	+17.0	5	31%	75	78	6	5
4	Gig Harbor High School Tides	104	90.2	-13.8	1	81%	25	33	3	1
5	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	113	108.8	-4.2	4	64%	43	50	5	4
6	Olympia High School Bears	115	130.3	+15.3	6	44%	62	78	4	6
7	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	124	163.1	+39.1	11	15%	88	93	12	11
8	Lakeside School Lions	129	151.5	+22.5	9	39%	64	75	11	10
8	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	129	93.0	-36.0	2	96%	5	10	1	2
10	Anacortes High School Seahawks	145	142.7	-2.3	8	70%	35	48	7	8
11	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	167	164.6	-2.4	12	54%	51	43	10	12
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	177	171.9	-5.1	13	56%	50	39	15	13
13	Jesuit High School (OR) Jesuit (OR)	185	181.7	-3.3	14	54%	51	43	9	14
13	Spring Street International School Green	185	152.0	-33.0	10	86%	18	11	13	9
15	Sehome High School Mariners	206	205.8	-0.2	16	50%	56	42	14	16
16	Kingston High School Kraken	231	195.4	-35.6	15	80%	29	5	16	15
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	231	211.1	-19.9	17	59%	51	12	17	17
18	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	245	228.1	-16.9	18	>99%	23	16	18	18

NWISA Silver Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/15/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 44.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 56.9 · winner's chance 40% · this far off in 68% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lakeridge High School (OR) Lake Ridge	68	96.2	+28.2	1	40%	80	95	4	1
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	87	121.1	+34.1	3	34%	74	90	2	3
3	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	98	135.0	+37.0	4	36%	70	91	3	4
4	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	107	177.1	+70.1	7	13%	90	99	8	5
5	Portland Waldorf School (OR) Portland Waldorf (O	114	172.4	+58.4	5	24%	80	97	6	6
6	Gig Harbor High School Tides	132	214.0	+82.0	17	11%	91	97	19	18
7	Ida B. Wells (OR) Trojans	136	119.6	-16.4	2	87%	15	41	1	2
8	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	152	185.1	+33.1	8	41%	63	79	5	8
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	176	202.1	+26.1	11	33%	71	73	15	11
10	Hood River Valley High School Eagles 1	182	205.5	+23.5	12	37%	66	70	14	14
11	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	183	211.2	+28.2	16	34%	69	80	16	17
12	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	189	209.2	+20.2	15	48%	55	66	13	13
13	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	211	209.2	-1.8	14	56%	47	44	17	15
14	Bainbridge High School Spartans 3	225	208.1	-16.9	13	63%	40	31	11	12
15	Squalicum High School Storm	247	215.1	-31.9	18	62%	42	22	12	16
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	279	235.3	-43.7	19	58%	47	10	18	19
17	Hood River Valley High School Eagles 2	280	197.8	-82.2	9	83%	20	5	9	9
18	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	294	292.6	-1.4	20	28%	77	36	20	20
19	Wolverines	297	197.8	-99.2	9	95%	9	3	9	9
20	Capital High School Cougars	327	175.6	-151.4	6	>99%	1	0	7	7

MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 03/29/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 16.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.4 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 81% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	112	112.6	+0.6	2	41%	79	63	2	2
2	Cornell University Big Red	122	107.6	-14.4	1	90%	27	32	1	1
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	151	156.1	+5.1	3	52%	68	64	4	3
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	164	162.3	-1.7	4	72%	44	54	5	4
5	George Washington University Revolutionaries	172	218.2	+46.2	7	20%	86	96	8	8
6	Old Dominion University Monarchs	189	196.5	+7.5	5	67%	42	63	7	5
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	212	205.8	-6.2	6	79%	31	43	3	6
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	217	225.4	+8.4	8	76%	36	63	9	7
9	Fordham University Rams	258	286.4	+28.4	10	20%	86	83	10	11
10	Columbia University Lions	271	289.8	+18.8	12	39%	72	72	6	10
11	Christopher Newport University Captains	305	255.9	-49.1	9	93%	13	3	12	9
12	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	315	287.2	-27.8	11	89%	24	14	11	12
13	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	324	333.3	+9.3	13	73%	49	57	15	13
14	Princeton University Tigers	381	354.4	-26.6	14	94%	36	9	14	14
15	Washington College Shoremen	410	408.6	-1.4	15	>99%	46	36	13	15

SEISA Girls Championship ISSA · 03/29/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 11.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 12.5 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 40% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1	13	35.7	+22.7	3	12%	94	100	3	3
2	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2	21	41.1	+20.1	4	15%	90	98	4	4
3	The Willow School Willow Lions 1	23	24.2	+1.2	1	85%	22	57	1	1
4	Louise S. McGehee Hawksa	36	26.3	-9.7	2	89%	16	23	2	2
5	Ursuline Academy Lions 2	50	48.5	-1.5	6	51%	58	45	7	5
6	Ursuline Academy Lions 4	53	60.6	+7.6	8	34%	73	69	9	8
7	Ursuline Academy Lions 1	57	47.1	-9.9	5	86%	22	21	6	6
8	Ursuline Academy Lions 3	74	66.0	-8.0	9	61%	53	14	8	9
9	The Willow School Willow Lions 2	78	55.6	-22.4	7	>99%	7	1	5	7

SEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/04/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 7.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.7 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 58% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	22	23.9	+1.9	1	>99%	50	82	1	1
2	University of Texas Longhorns	62	74.8	+12.8	3	32%	84	93	3	3
3	Texas A&M University Aggies	83	68.6	-14.4	2	90%	25	6	2	2
4	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	85	84.8	-0.2	4	>99%	33	46	4	4

MCSA Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 10.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 25.2 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 92% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	54	93.0	+39.0	4	7%	97	99	10	6
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	73	64.1	-8.9	1	83%	28	34	1	1
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	79.5	78.3	-1.2	2	75%	36	52	4	3
4	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	81	84.2	+3.2	3	81%	30	64	2	2
5	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	97	103.0	+6.0	5	66%	47	67	3	4
6	Purdue University Boilermakers	114	111.3	-2.7	6	69%	42	44	5	5
7	University of Chicago Maroons	136	133.4	-2.6	8	45%	66	39	7	8
8	Washington University Bears	145	132.6	-12.4	7	75%	38	16	6	7
9	University of Minnesota Gophers	150	146.9	-3.1	9	70%	44	35	9	9
10	Marquette University Golden Eagles	174	153.2	-20.8	10	>99%	24	3	8	10

PCCSC Wahine Championships ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 12.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.1 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 57% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	23	28.8	+5.8	1	>99%	50	95	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbow Wahine	41	54.2	+13.2	2	89%	56	97	2	2
3	University of Southern California Women of Troy	63	73.3	+10.3	3	69%	60	87	3	3
4	University of California at Berkeley Ursas	79	88.8	+9.8	4	49%	68	80	5	5
5	Western Washington University Viking Women	82	92.2	+10.2	5	67%	48	79	7	4
6	University of Washington Husky Women	112	96.6	-15.4	6	82%	33	12	4	6
7	University of California at San Diego Sun Goddesses	128	135.2	+7.2	9	10%	94	69	8	9
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	138	125.9	-12.1	8	76%	48	9	9	8
9	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Fillies	144	114.9	-29.1	7	>99%	4	0	6	7

SEISA Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/05/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 9.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.9 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 88% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	12	15.7	+3.7	1	>99%	50	96	1	1
2	University of Texas Longhorns	42	44.0	+2.0	2	74%	63	63	2	2
3	Rice University Owls	60	59.2	-0.8	3	53%	66	51	3	3
4	Texas A&M University Aggies	60.3	65.6	+5.3	4	56%	57	69	6	4
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	67	77.7	+10.7	6	45%	67	80	5	6
6	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	80	71.6	-8.4	5	86%	26	23	4	5
7	Bears	120	86.2	-33.8	7	>99%	24	0	7	7

2025 MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 15.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 22.3 · winner's chance 92% · this far off in 39% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lake Forest High School Scouts	38.7	47.5	+8.8	1	92%	54	89	1	1
2	Jones College Prep Eagles	68	77.5	+9.5	2	60%	67	82	2	2
3	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	72	98.4	+26.4	4	33%	78	98	4	4
4	New Trier HS Trevian	94	90.5	-3.5	3	75%	36	44	5	3
5	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	109	109.4	+0.4	6	48%	62	53	3	5
6	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	110	117.4	+7.4	7	51%	58	66	7	7
7	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	131	162.0	+31.0	10	2%	99	98	10	10
8	Latin School of Chicago Romans	133	109.2	-23.8	5	98%	6	7	6	6
9	Lane Tech College Prep Champions	161	152.5	-8.5	9	70%	50	23	8	9
10	Loyola Academy Ramblers	175	135.5	-39.5	8	>99%	3	0	9	8

Ranking Regatta #3 ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 21.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.2 · winner's chance 43% · this far off in 28% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lakeside School Lions	87	78.4	-8.6	1	43%	78	43	4	2
2	Gig Harbor High School Tides	95	126.1	+31.1	5	7%	95	92	3	5
3	Spring Street International School Green	109	161.4	+52.4	10	1%	99	99	10	11
4	Garfield High School Bulldogs	110	80.2	-29.8	2	93%	10	10	1	1
5	Olympia High School Bears	114	104.8	-9.2	3	78%	28	39	2	3
6	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	124	139.2	+15.2	8	37%	68	75	6	7
7	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	129	128.4	-0.6	6	70%	36	50	8	6
8	Capital High School Cougars	133	136.0	+3.0	7	69%	36	57	11	8
9	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	153	117.9	-35.1	4	95%	7	7	5	4
10	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	164	152.7	-11.3	9	69%	38	32	7	9
11	Anacortes High School Seahawks	168	179.7	+11.7	12	44%	63	65	12	12
12	Kingston High School Kraken	169	191.4	+22.4	13	42%	65	78	14	14
13	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	181	205.7	+24.7	15	36%	72	83	15	15
14	Olympic High School (WA) Trojans	202	162.4	-39.6	11	95%	8	6	9	10
15	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	226	195.7	-30.3	14	>99%	12	5	13	13

SEISA Fleet Race Champs / Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/05/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 7.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.6 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 36% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Clear Lake High School Falcons Green	18	26.3	+8.3	1	90%	55	99	1	1
2	Lake Travis High School Cavaliers	42	43.5	+1.5	3	45%	74	55	3	3
3	Flour Bluff High School Hornets	44	47.5	+3.5	4	48%	67	72	2	4
4	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	59	42.7	-16.3	2	>99%	9	0	4	2

MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/12/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 22.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.8 · winner's chance 94% · this far off in 52% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	62	67.6	+5.6	1	94%	53	81	2	1
2	Northwestern University Wildcats	84	101.8	+17.8	2	76%	60	93	3	3
3	University of Michigan Wolverines	118	139.4	+21.4	4	30%	83	93	4	4
4	Purdue University Boilermakers	168	123.2	-44.8	3	>99%	13	0	1	2

SAISA Women's Fleet Race Champs - Ann Boyd Trophy ICSA · 04/12/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 13.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.4 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 77% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of South Florida Bulls	46	71.4	+25.4	2	12%	94	99	3	2
2	College of Charleston Cougars	57	51.7	-5.3	1	98%	9	42	1	1
3	Jacksonville University Fins	62	79.1	+17.1	3	89%	37	93	4	3
4	Rollins College Tars	92	119.6	+27.6	5	29%	84	96	5	5
5	Clemson University Tigers	117	109.2	-7.8	4	82%	32	34	2	4
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	128	124.5	-3.5	6	79%	39	44	6	6
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	164	144.1	-19.9	7	76%	45	12	9	7
8	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	172	168.8	-3.2	8	55%	64	38	7	8
9	University of Florida Gators	178	172.6	-5.4	9	81%	36	32	8	9
10	Florida State University Seminoles	203	188.8	-14.2	10	95%	35	12	10	10
11	University of Central Florida Knights	238	222.2	-15.8	11	>99%	47	1	11	11

MISSA Mallory NWPrequalifier ISSA · 04/12/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 2.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 9.5 · winner's chance 91% · this far off in 90% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	28	28.6	+0.6	1	91%	54	67	1	1
2	Wayzata High School Navy	42	44.5	+2.5	2	75%	58	69	2	2
3	Minnetonka High School Skippers	58	53.0	-5.0	3	83%	46	31	4	3
4	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	71	72.7	+1.7	5	43%	74	53	5	5
4	St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	71	69.5	-1.5	4	57%	64	42	3	4
6	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	86	89.0	+3.0	6	60%	61	57	7	7
7	Benilde St Margarets Red	97	90.8	-6.2	7	>99%	26	17	6	6

Mallory South East Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/12/2025 · 2 teams · site model off 1.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 1.7 · winner's chance 94% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Varsity	9	10.2	+1.2	1	94%	53	78	1	1
2	Culver Academies Eagles	15	13.8	-1.2	2	>99%	40	22	2	2

America Trophy ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 21.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 54.5 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 97% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	94	124.3	+30.3	2	32%	84	94	2	2
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	111	120.6	+9.6	1	63%	50	73	3	1
3	Cornell University Big Red	115	147.2	+32.2	4	38%	70	94	5	4
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	118	135.6	+17.6	3	71%	37	84	8	3
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	140	156.7	+16.7	5	60%	49	78	4	6
6	Fordham University Rams	170	190.5	+20.5	7	34%	74	79	9	7
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	183	157.5	-25.5	6	89%	17	23	7	5
8	Webb Institute Clippers	224	209.8	-14.2	8	48%	61	34	1	9
9	George Washington University Revolutionaries	231	228.5	-2.5	10	45%	65	45	14	10
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	234	213.0	-21.0	9	81%	26	22	13	8
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	237	277.5	+40.5	14	22%	84	89	16	14
12	Penn State University Nittany Lions	275	276.1	+1.1	13	41%	68	47	6	12
13	Christopher Newport University Captains	281	256.7	-24.3	12	80%	28	20	15	11
13	Hampton University Pirates	281	249.6	-31.4	11	86%	22	14	10	13
15	Columbia University Lions	292	318.4	+26.4	15	52%	61	78	12	15
16	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	349	327.7	-21.3	16	71%	43	15	18	17
17	Virginia Tech Hokies	378	345.1	-32.9	17	78%	39	6	11	16
18	Washington College Shoremen	391	369.3	-21.7	18	>99%	32	8	17	18

NEISA Open FR Champs/Coast Guard Alumni Bowl ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 19.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 47.0 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in 96% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	103	118.4	+15.4	1	60%	70	82	1	1
2	Boston College Eagles	118	162.0	+44.0	4	18%	88	98	5	4
3	Brown University Bears	133	151.3	+18.3	3	48%	61	82	2	3
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	138	149.3	+11.3	2	67%	39	72	6	2
5	Yale University Bulldogs	156	188.6	+32.6	8	29%	76	88	4	8
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	169	198.4	+29.4	9	28%	76	85	9	9
7	University of Rhode Island Rams	184	181.7	-2.3	7	58%	48	49	7	5
8	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	185.6	180.2	-5.4	6	74%	32	44	10	7
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	197	170.9	-26.1	5	88%	16	21	13	6
10	Tufts University Jumbos	198	200.7	+2.7	10	76%	32	56	8	10
11	Dartmouth College Big Green	237.2	211.8	-25.4	11	80%	29	20	3	11
12	Northeastern University Huskies	258	252.7	-5.3	12	55%	57	39	16	12
13	Connecticut College Camels	262	268.6	+6.6	13	56%	56	55	12	13
14	Boston University Terriers	304	291.2	-12.8	15	50%	60	25	11	15
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	320	281.2	-38.8	14	87%	25	3	15	14
16	Salve Regina University Seahawks	339	307.3	-31.7	16	94%	28	6	14	16
17	Fairfield University Stags	378	357.6	-20.4	17	>99%	45	8	17	17

NEISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 11.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.6 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 25% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	13	27.2	+14.2	1	41%	79	98	1	1
2	Brown University Bears	28	35.6	+7.6	3	31%	77	79	3	3
3	Harvard University Crimson	35	32.5	-2.5	2	58%	50	42	2	2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	36	42.7	+6.7	6	32%	73	75	6	6
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	42	38.9	-3.1	4	58%	48	43	7	5
6	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	47	60.4	+13.4	11	13%	90	84	11	10
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	47	55.2	+8.2	9	21%	82	75	5	9
8	University of Vermont Catamounts	48	71.1	+23.1	15	7%	94	97	14	15
9	Tufts University Jumbos	50	59.1	+9.1	10	38%	67	76	9	11
10	Boston College Eagles	54	39.7	-14.3	5	94%	8	12	4	4
11	Boston University Terriers	57	61.2	+4.2	12	51%	55	64	13	13
12	Northeastern University Huskies	68	47.0	-21.0	7	93%	9	4	10	7
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	70	47.1	-22.9	8	97%	5	2	8	8
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	75	61.3	-13.7	13	85%	20	12	12	12
15	Connecticut College Camels	81	71.1	-9.9	14	78%	31	17	17	14
16	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	82	73.8	-8.2	16	93%	19	23	15	16
17	McGill University Redbirds	85	94.0	+9.0	17	>99%	40	80	16	17

PCCSC Mark Healy Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 15.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.1 · winner's chance 59% · this far off in 63% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	60	59.9	-0.1	1	59%	70	59	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	63	81.6	+18.6	3	29%	80	92	8	4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	68	82.0	+14.0	4	50%	61	85	7	3
4	University of Southern California Trojans	85.6	91.8	+6.2	5	49%	61	67	6	5
5	San Diego State University Aztecs	93	76.1	-16.9	2	90%	15	19	2	2
6	Western Washington University Vikings	105	116.9	+11.9	7	37%	71	73	4	6
7	University of California at Berkeley Bears	119	143.8	+24.8	9	15%	89	88	11	10
8	California Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	120	117.8	-2.2	8	79%	32	45	5	8
9	University of Washington Huskies	129	108.1	-20.9	6	96%	8	17	3	7
10	University of California at San Diego Tritons	133	171.1	+38.1	11	27%	80	93	10	11
11	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	163	149.1	-13.9	10	85%	23	20	9	9
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	171	173.3	+2.3	12	63%	49	54	13	12
13	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	202	184.2	-17.8	13	62%	48	14	12	13
14	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	212	194.6	-17.4	15	66%	47	10	16	15
15	Santa Clara University Broncos	220	231.7	+11.7	16	11%	93	74	15	16
16	University of Oregon Ducks	227	194.0	-33.0	14	>99%	2	1	14	14

SAISA Spring Open Championship - Tillman Trophy ICSA · 04/19/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 23.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 57.8 · winner's chance 74% · this far off in 72% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	62	77.4	+15.4	1	74%	63	92	2	1
2	University of Miami Hurricanes	73	97.4	+24.4	2	68%	55	96	5	2
3	University of South Florida Bulls	120	132.9	+12.9	4	31%	80	77	4	4
4	Jacksonville University Fins	125	120.8	-4.2	3	77%	35	52	1	3
5	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	133	150.3	+17.3	6	50%	61	78	7	6
6	Eckerd College Tritons	143.5	143.3	-0.2	5	81%	30	57	6	5
7	Florida State University Seminoles	157	168.6	+11.6	7	79%	38	73	9	7
8	Rollins College Tars	198	214.6	+16.6	9	41%	73	75	11	9
9	The Citadel Bulldogs	213.8	261.3	+47.5	10	13%	92	97	10	11
10	Clemson University Tigers	230	204.9	-25.1	8	97%	8	17	3	8
11	Wake Forest University Demon Deacons	267	308.6	+41.6	14	21%	84	84	12	12
12	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	273	305.4	+32.4	12	32%	76	86	14	14
13	Auburn University Tigers	294	270.5	-23.5	11	86%	19	20	8	10
14	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	314	305.5	-8.5	13	67%	40	34	13	13
15	University of Central Florida Knights	321.4	331.8	+10.4	17	39%	69	66	18	17
16	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	358	328.0	-30.0	16	70%	41	8	16	16
17	Duke University Blue Devils	365	311.7	-53.3	15	96%	9	1	15	15
18	University of South Carolina Gamecocks	417	370.9	-46.1	18	>99%	34	1	17	18

2025 PCISA Silver PCC's ISSA · 04/26/2025 · 29 teams · site model off 35.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 50.0 · winner's chance 26% · this far off in 89% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	97	105.8	+8.8	2	26%	87	74	7	4
2	Carlmont High School The Scots	134	153.1	+19.1	5	14%	91	75	2	3
3	Redwood Giants	138	189.5	+51.5	7	9%	94	93	5	6
4	Stevenson School Pirates 1	139	144.3	+5.3	4	52%	56	65	1	2
5	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	144	85.6	-58.4	1	98%	2	6	3	1
6	Coronado Islanders Islanders	152	203.2	+51.2	8	23%	81	92	8	8
7	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	181	143.3	-37.7	3	79%	25	27	4	5
7	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	181	212.6	+31.6	10	26%	77	79	24	10
9	La Jolla High School Vikings	182	213.5	+31.5	11	40%	64	80	26	11
10	Alameda High School Hornets	199	231.2	+32.2	12	34%	70	77	14	12
11	Encinal High School Jets	216	262.5	+46.5	15	16%	86	87	23	19
12	Bishop's School Knights	227	187.8	-39.2	6	80%	23	20	10	7
13	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	233	243.7	+10.7	13	40%	62	61	15	14
14	Varsity	236	299.2	+63.2	22	24%	78	79	17	21
15	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	243	212.3	-30.7	9	74%	28	30	9	9
16	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	245	272.8	+27.8	19	34%	69	74	28	24
17	Urban School of San Francisco Blues	261	262.9	+1.9	17	49%	54	51	11	13
18	Saint Mary's (Berkeley, CA) Varsity	268	260.8	-7.2	14	58%	44	42	13	15
19	Carmel High School Padres	272	262.6	-9.4	16	63%	40	38	12	17
20	Stevenson School Pirates 2	272.6	306.7	+34.1	25	34%	68	73	22	27
21	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	274	265.5	-8.5	18	68%	35	43	6	16
22	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	283	344.9	+61.9	29	21%	81	86	29	29
23	Pacific Palisades Ch	293	299.2	+6.2	22	58%	44	49	17	21
24	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	300	308.6	+8.6	27	59%	45	53	27	28
25	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	321	274.6	-46.4	20	86%	17	13	20	18
26	Design Tech High School Dragons	333	308.5	-24.5	26	76%	28	23	25	25
26	San Domenico High School Panthers	333	291.0	-42.0	21	86%	17	14	16	20
28	Campolindo High School Cougars	412	315.0	-97.0	28	91%	13	0	21	26
29	Albany High School (CA) Varsity	423	299.2	-123.8	22	>99%	5	0	17	21

NYISAS-NW All Girls Qualifier ISSA · 04/26/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 4.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 4.0 · winner's chance 51% · this far off in 57% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	West Irondequoit Eagles 1	3	6.5	+3.5	1	51%	74	97	1	1
2	Southwestern Central High School Trojans	6	13.5	+7.5	6	18%	88	97	2	5
3	West Irondequoit Eagles 2	9	12.7	+3.7	3	40%	66	76	3	3
4	Nardin Academy Gators	13	10.4	-2.6	2	74%	34	28	5	2
5	Kenmore East High School Kenmore East	15	13.1	-1.9	5	71%	38	32	6	6
6	West Irondequoit Eagles 3	18	12.7	-5.3	3	83%	24	15	3	3
7	City Honors School Centaurs	20	15.0	-5.0	7	>99%	11	7	7	7

2025 PCISA Gold PCC's ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 21 teams · site model off 17.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 37.6 · winner's chance 59% · this far off in 68% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	30	42.0	+12.0	1	59%	70	92	2	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	55	48.1	-6.9	2	82%	41	41	1	2
3	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	66	86.9	+20.9	4	22%	86	90	4	4
4	Santa Barbara High School Dons	68	89.0	+21.0	5	41%	69	88	5	5
5	Santa Monica High School Vikings	70	111.8	+41.8	8	23%	82	97	13	8
6	San Marcos High School Royals	80	77.6	-2.4	3	87%	18	50	3	3
7	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	86	104.6	+18.6	7	59%	48	81	14	7
8	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	105	102.1	-2.9	6	73%	32	49	7	6
9	Crossroads Varsity	131	149.3	+18.3	12	20%	84	76	21	13
10	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	134	158.7	+24.7	14	16%	87	84	8	14
11	Parker	144	171.1	+27.1	17	13%	89	86	18	17
12	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	151	124.5	-26.5	9	83%	21	12	20	9
13	Redwood Giants	158	154.4	-3.6	13	50%	55	42	15	12
14	Alameda High School Hornets	164	168.3	+4.3	16	36%	69	55	16	15
14	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	164	145.6	-18.4	11	75%	30	19	17	11
16	Dos Pueblos Chargers	166.6	132.7	-33.9	10	93%	9	9	10	10
17	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	182	164.5	-17.5	15	74%	32	19	9	16
18	San Pedro High School Pirates	192	187.6	-4.4	20	46%	60	37	11	20
19	South Torrance High School Spartans	201	176.2	-24.8	18	80%	26	9	12	19
20	Design Tech High School Dragons	203	196.3	-6.7	21	67%	43	32	19	21
21	San Domenico High School Panthers	217	180.5	-36.5	19	>99%	7	3	6	18

MASSA 2025 Girls Championship ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 21.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.8 · winner's chance 20% · this far off in 97% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Pingry School Big Blue	57	85.7	+28.7	3	20%	90	95	2	2
2	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	60	69.2	+9.2	1	72%	42	78	3	1
3	The Stony Brook School Bears	81	94.9	+13.9	4	47%	64	81	4	4
4	Severn School Admirals	85	84.7	-0.3	2	75%	31	54	1	3
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	91	140.3	+49.3	7	30%	76	94	15	7
6	Toms River South Indians	119	125.6	+6.6	5	59%	49	61	7	5
7	Ranney School Panthers	132	171.2	+39.2	10	17%	86	91	9	10
8	Summit High School Hilltoppers 1	142	159.2	+17.2	9	41%	65	71	5	8
9	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	143	131.6	-11.4	6	81%	23	37	8	9
10	Summit High School Hilltoppers 2	171	156.5	-14.5	8	66%	39	31	6	6
11	St. John the Baptist Cougars	175	173.2	-1.8	11	59%	46	44	17	12
12	Chatham High School Cougars	183	199.8	+16.8	14	34%	71	71	14	14
13	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	190	177.2	-12.8	12	76%	29	29	11	11
14	Ridge High School Red Devils	203	203.1	+0.1	15	54%	52	47	12	15
15	Nardin Academy Gators	227	191.8	-35.2	13	79%	26	12	16	13
16	Southwestern Central High School Trojans	257	208.9	-48.1	16	80%	29	4	10	16
17	The Tome School Titans	291	227.9	-63.1	17	>99%	20	0	13	17

MISSA Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 32.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 48.0 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 66% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	73	104.1	+31.1	2	12%	94	95	1	2
2	Lake Forest High School Scouts	81	70.0	-11.0	1	93%	16	40	2	1
3	Wayzata High School Navy	111.2	170.6	+59.4	8	4%	98	99	7	9
4	Jones College Prep Eagles	123	106.7	-16.3	3	82%	25	33	4	3
5	Rocky River High School Varsity	124	142.7	+18.7	5	50%	58	78	3	4
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	126	141.7	+15.7	4	64%	43	77	5	5
7	New Trier HS Trevian	127	149.8	+22.8	6	64%	42	83	10	6
8	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	129	180.1	+51.1	10	39%	67	97	8	11
9	Minnetonka High School Skippers	130	184.5	+54.5	11	43%	62	96	15	12
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	139	162.6	+23.6	7	80%	25	81	6	7
11	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit Varsity	194	177.4	-16.6	9	75%	31	31	11	8
12	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	229	253.4	+24.4	16	10%	92	73	19	19
13	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	239	253.3	+14.3	15	16%	87	63	14	17
14	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	250	215.5	-34.5	13	71%	36	8	17	13
15	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	270	189.2	-80.8	12	94%	8	0	9	10
16	St. Paul Academy (MN) Spartans	273	260.7	-12.3	19	40%	66	28	12	18
17	Culver Academies Eagles	274	236.7	-37.3	14	77%	28	11	16	14
18	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	275	266.7	-8.3	20	60%	48	31	18	20
19	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI Marian Varsity	289	257.6	-31.4	18	86%	21	8	20	16
20	Troy High School Varsity	342	256.4	-85.6	17	>99%	7	0	13	15

SAISA Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/03/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 28.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 66.4 · winner's chance 30% · this far off in 38% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Antilles School Hurricanes	99	130.6	+31.6	1	30%	85	95	3	3
2	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	125	131.2	+6.2	2	61%	52	70	2	2
3	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	162	132.8	-29.2	3	79%	31	20	1	1
4	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	167	186.9	+19.9	5	26%	81	82	4	5
5	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	173	245.0	+72.0	10	7%	95	98	11	10
5	St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	173	171.3	-1.7	4	69%	40	53	5	4
7	MAST Academy Makos	176	189.5	+13.5	6	76%	31	71	7	6
8	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	209	269.5	+60.5	11	16%	88	94	13	12
9	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	210.2	206.7	-3.5	7	85%	21	49	9	7
10	Pine Crest School Panthers	217	243.7	+26.7	9	75%	36	80	10	11
11	Oxbridge Academy ThunderWolves	257	218.3	-38.7	8	95%	9	15	8	8
12	John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	333	284.0	-49.0	12	76%	36	6	6	9
13	James Island Charter High School Varsity	364	365.5	+1.5	15	13%	92	40	15	16
14	Wando High School Warriors	366	334.6	-31.4	14	74%	40	8	16	14
15	New Bern High School NB Bears Sailing	383	366.2	-16.8	16	59%	56	16	14	15
16	Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	390	332.4	-57.6	13	>99%	4	0	12	13

MASSA Fleet Championship and Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 23.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 31.0 · winner's chance 52% · this far off in 47% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	62	81.9	+19.9	1	52%	74	93	3	1
2	Severn School Admirals	79	89.9	+10.9	2	67%	50	81	1	2
3	Southern Regional High School Rams	113	123.5	+10.5	4	32%	78	74	4	4
4	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	118	101.9	-16.1	3	91%	18	30	2	3
5	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	138	152.5	+14.5	6	44%	68	76	5	6
6	Severna Park Falcons	157	211.2	+54.2	11	5%	97	97	14	11
7	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	166	152.1	-13.9	5	83%	25	32	7	5
8	The Stony Brook School Bears	178	192.0	+14.0	7	46%	60	66	8	9
9	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	181	193.5	+12.5	9	55%	52	67	6	7
10	Rye High School Garnets	183	226.4	+43.4	14	32%	73	88	13	14
11	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	218	201.7	-16.3	10	69%	37	27	10	10
12	Key School Zags	222	192.2	-29.8	8	89%	15	12	9	8
13	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	246	266.7	+20.7	17	13%	90	74	17	17
14	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	246.8	254.3	+7.5	16	36%	70	58	18	16
15	Great Mills High School Hornets	250	224.3	-25.7	13	87%	18	15	12	13
16	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	260	220.3	-39.7	12	94%	9	7	11	12
17	Ranney School Panthers	294	248.2	-45.8	15	94%	14	2	16	15
18	Canisius High School Crusaders	310	287.3	-22.7	18	>99%	27	11	15	18

MASSA Spring Invitational ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 17.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.6 · winner's chance 67% · this far off in 12% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Christchurch School Seahorses	48	74.9	+26.9	1	67%	67	98	1	1
2	Leonardtown High School Raiders	114	112.3	-1.7	4	21%	87	51	2	4
3	Ridge High School Red Devils	121	149.9	+28.9	10	2%	98	93	9	9
4	Kent Island High School Buccaneers	126	149.5	+23.5	9	8%	93	84	10	8
5	Maury High School Commodores	130	101.6	-28.4	2	84%	20	9	6	2
5	Henderson High School Warriors	130	123.9	-6.1	6	50%	58	37	5	5
7	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	135	118.3	-16.7	5	78%	27	27	7	7
8	Gunston Herons	136	108.6	-27.4	3	96%	6	10	3	3
9	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	143	147.5	+4.5	8	62%	44	54	8	10
10	Chatham High School Cougars	156	163.2	+7.2	11	51%	57	59	11	11
11	Broadneck High School Bruins	163	172.6	+9.6	12	60%	51	60	12	12
12	Seton Hall Preparatory School Pirates	167	137.8	-29.2	7	>99%	1	3	4	6

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Bristol ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 13.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.1 · winner's chance 19% · this far off in 71% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	19	41.4	+22.4	2	19%	91	100	2	2
2	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	36	47.7	+11.7	3	29%	81	94	4	3
3	St. George's School Dragons	45	29.5	-15.5	1	96%	8	12	1	1
4	North Kingstown High School Skippers	59	51.0	-8.0	4	74%	40	35	3	4
5	Staples High School Wreckers	60	65.7	+5.7	5	67%	48	67	5	5
6	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	75	91.7	+16.7	7	26%	83	88	9	9
7	Bishop Stang High Spartans	102	99.2	-2.8	8	30%	76	41	10	10
7	Branford High School Hornets	102	99.4	-2.6	9	36%	71	39	7	7
7	Wilton High School Warriors	102	90.3	-11.7	6	52%	58	19	6	6
10	Rogers High School Vikings	105	109.9	+4.9	11	57%	54	56	12	11
11	Weston High School Trojans	107	110.7	+3.7	12	74%	38	54	11	12
12	The Prout School Crusaders	156	99.4	-56.6	9	>99%	8	0	7	7

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 12.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.7 · winner's chance 52% · this far off in 91% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	36	45.0	+9.0	1	52%	74	88	3	1
2	Brunswick School Bruins	37	54.5	+17.5	2	49%	65	96	2	3
3	Greenwich High School Cardinals	51	65.6	+14.6	4	39%	70	90	5	5
4	Greenwich Academy Gator	57	56.6	-0.4	3	85%	25	58	1	2
5	Darien High School Blue Wave	71	81.2	+10.2	6	40%	69	78	6	6
6	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	72	69.6	-2.4	5	86%	23	49	4	4
7	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	103	85.0	-18.0	7	86%	30	10	7	7
8	The Williams School Blues	109	113.8	+4.8	9	46%	69	55	8	8
9	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	122	113.1	-8.9	8	73%	43	20	10	9
10	Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	128	127.5	-0.5	10	59%	56	44	11	10
11	Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons	163	142.9	-20.1	12	49%	64	1	12	12
12	Daniel Hand High School Tigers	180	137.1	-42.9	11	>99%	15	0	9	11

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 12 teams · site model off 13.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 12.6 · winner's chance 3% · this far off in 51% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lincoln Academy Eagles	17	60.9	+43.9	4	3%	98	100	6	4
2	East Greenwich High School Avengers	46	53.1	+7.1	2	28%	82	77	8	3
3	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	48	35.6	-12.4	1	88%	17	21	1	1
4	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	54	53.9	-0.1	3	56%	51	54	2	2
5	Greely High School - Maine Rangers	61	78.6	+17.6	10	14%	89	87	9	10
6	Yarmouth High School Clippers	66	67.1	+1.1	8	46%	59	52	4	8
7	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	70	66.2	-3.8	7	62%	44	37	10	7
8	Camden Hills RHS Varsity	75	61.1	-13.9	5	76%	29	21	5	5
9	St. John Paul II School Lions	79	64.4	-14.6	6	84%	22	15	7	6
10	Portland High School Bulldogs	80	89.9	+9.9	12	38%	67	69	11	12
11	Oceanside High School Mariners	82	67.5	-14.5	9	93%	10	17	3	9
12	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	103	81.7	-21.3	11	>99%	8	2	12	11

NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Quincy ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 14 teams · site model off 22.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 34.9 · winner's chance 8% · this far off in 63% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Milton Academy Mustangs	73	130.7	+57.7	6	8%	96	99	9	7
2	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	101	101.0	+0.0	1	50%	61	61	5	3
3	Belmont Hill School Varsity	102	108.6	+6.6	3	54%	54	69	2	2
4	Winchester High School Varsity	112	108.1	-3.9	2	67%	39	49	1	1
5	Sharon High School Eagles	126	119.5	-6.5	4	63%	43	45	4	4
6	Fairfield Prep Jesuits	130	142.1	+12.1	8	45%	60	67	7	9
7	Hingham High School Harbormen	132	167.7	+35.7	10	24%	81	91	11	10
8	Boston College High School Eagles	145	188.4	+43.4	11	18%	85	90	12	11
9	St. Johns Prep Varsity	153	125.0	-28.0	5	90%	13	19	8	6
10	Wellesley High School Raiders	163	139.8	-23.2	7	94%	10	16	3	5
11	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	180	156.2	-23.8	9	90%	14	15	6	8
12	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	210	203.7	-6.3	13	51%	58	30	10	12
13	Moses Brown School Quakers	214	197.8	-16.2	12	85%	26	14	14	13
14	Lincoln Sudbury RHS Warriors	267	211.4	-55.6	14	>99%	18	0	13	14

NESSA O'Day Qualifier- Hyannis ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 18.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.0 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 76% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Dartmouth High School Sailing	41	95.5	+54.5	5	9%	96	100	2	3
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	54	57.4	+3.4	1	80%	30	75	1	1
3	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	74	108.9	+34.9	7	17%	87	94	7	7
4	Nantucket High School Whalers	81	86.7	+5.7	3	55%	54	71	5	5
5	Duxbury High School Dragons	93	98.0	+5.0	6	52%	57	67	3	4
6	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	93.7	73.8	-19.9	2	94%	9	19	4	2
7	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	103	95.3	-7.7	4	84%	23	39	6	6
8	Old Rochester Bulldogs	104	112.0	+8.0	8	66%	40	66	10	8
9	Sturgis Charter Public School Navigators	135	137.9	+2.9	9	41%	68	50	11	11
10	Salisbury School Knights	137	144.6	+7.6	10	51%	55	53	8	9
11	Falmouth High School, MA Clippers	156	154.6	-1.4	13	47%	62	38	13	13
12	Nauset Regional High School Nauset	184	146.7	-37.3	12	80%	29	2	12	12
13	Falmouth Academy Mariners	195	144.6	-50.4	10	>99%	9	0	8	9

NWISA Fleet Race Championships ISSA · 05/10/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 34.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.5 · winner's chance 14% · this far off in 54% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Olympia High School Bears	101	188.4	+87.4	3	14%	93	100	2	4
2	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	163	186.7	+23.7	2	31%	76	79	3	2
3	Bainbridge High School Spartans	176.5	172.4	-4.1	1	60%	48	57	4	1
4	Gig Harbor High School Tides	177	202.7	+25.7	7	38%	67	83	5	7
5	Garfield High School Bulldogs	183	195.1	+12.1	4	63%	43	69	1	3
6	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	217	230.7	+13.7	8	36%	69	68	8	8
7	Ballard High School Beavers	239	200.3	-38.7	6	77%	28	20	6	6
8	Lakeside School Lions	244.3	197.7	-46.6	5	83%	21	17	7	5
9	Ingraham High School Rams	251	271.3	+20.3	9	41%	63	62	9	9
10	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	273.2	277.9	+4.7	10	41%	64	54	11	10
11	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	274	301.9	+27.9	14	35%	69	70	12	14
12	Capital High School Cougars	294	290.5	-3.5	12	56%	50	43	16	12
13	Lincoln High School (OR) Cardinals	297	338.9	+41.9	17	26%	78	78	13	17
14	Spring Street International School Green	352	320.0	-32.0	15	49%	57	19	15	15
15	Sehome High School Mariners	362.2	396.6	+34.4	19	6%	96	78	18	19
16	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	363	412.2	+49.2	20	5%	96	88	20	20
17	Anacortes High School Seahawks	364	278.0	-86.0	11	98%	4	2	10	11
18	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	365	324.2	-40.8	16	95%	9	12	17	16
19	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	373	295.8	-77.2	13	99%	1	3	14	13
20	Kingston High School Kraken	407	378.8	-28.2	18	>99%	8	17	19	18

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Boothbay ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 6.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 6.1 · winner's chance 1% · this far off in 2% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Sacred Heart Greenwich Varsity	23	36.8	+13.8	6	1%	99	98	6	6
2	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	24	27.0	+3.0	4	34%	76	73	2	3
2	East Greenwich High School Avengers	24	22.5	-1.5	1	60%	52	45	3	1
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	31	25.0	-6.0	3	86%	23	15	5	4
5	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	35	24.4	-10.6	2	96%	9	3	1	2
6	Islesboro Central School Eagles	37	32.4	-4.6	5	>99%	13	22	4	5

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 17.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.3 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 94% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	31	74.2	+43.2	5	10%	95	100	3	5
2	Greenwich Academy Gator	37	53.6	+16.6	1	67%	45	96	1	1
3	Darien High School Blue Wave	67	58.8	-8.2	2	68%	42	37	2	2
4	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	71	63.7	-7.3	3	72%	36	41	4	3
5	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	72	70.5	-1.5	4	75%	33	53	5	4
6	The Williams School Blues	87	99.2	+12.2	7	41%	67	67	6	6
7	Branford High School Hornets	114	98.8	-15.2	6	56%	55	9	9	9
8	Milton Academy Mustangs	122	102.1	-19.9	9	76%	36	3	8	8
9	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	136	99.2	-36.8	7	>99%	12	0	6	6

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Hingham ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 14.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.8 · winner's chance 75% · this far off in 76% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	30	43.3	+13.3	1	75%	62	97	1	1
2	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	38	66.5	+28.5	2	34%	79	100	4	2
3	Hingham High School Harborwomen	60	92.3	+32.3	6	10%	93	98	11	8
4	Old Rochester Bulldogs	74	74.0	+0.0	3	54%	53	53	3	4
5	Nantucket High School Whalers	95	78.8	-16.2	4	57%	49	19	5	5
6	Dartmouth High School Sailing	98	95.0	-3.0	9	39%	66	42	10	9
6	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	98	93.0	-5.0	7	42%	64	36	7	7
8	Winchester High School Women	101	78.8	-22.2	5	87%	16	10	2	3
9	Duxbury High School Dragons	106	97.2	-8.8	10	74%	34	24	9	10
10	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	116	110.6	-5.4	11	65%	45	27	8	11
11	Sharon High School Eagles	119	94.5	-24.5	8	>99%	5	4	6	6

NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - North Kingstown ISSA · 05/11/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 9.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 11.7 · winner's chance 98% · this far off in 8% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. George's School Dragons	13	17.5	+4.5	1	98%	51	98	1	1
2	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	39	51.3	+12.3	4	21%	89	89	4	4
3	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	41	59.2	+18.2	5	17%	88	97	5	5
4	North Kingstown High School Skippers	47	49.1	+2.1	3	78%	34	63	3	2
5	Rogers High School Vikings	67	68.0	+1.0	6	29%	79	51	7	6
6	Moses Brown School Quakers	69	69.8	+0.8	7	50%	61	47	8	7
7	Lincoln School Lynxes	77	76.2	-0.8	8	54%	60	33	6	8
8	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	80.5	41.0	-39.5	2	>99%	0	0	2	3

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) ISSA · 05/18/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 13.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.1 · winner's chance 51% · this far off in 12% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	47	36.0	-11.0	1	51%	74	25	2	2
2	Greenwich Academy Gator	50	53.3	+3.3	3	27%	82	67	3	4
3	Tabor Academy Seawolves	52	57.0	+5.0	4	44%	69	72	4	3
4	North Kingstown High School Skippers	60	80.5	+20.5	5	20%	86	91	6	5
4	St. George's School Dragons	60	38.1	-21.9	2	98%	5	6	1	1
6	Portland High School Bulldogs	84	109.3	+25.3	11	7%	96	94	12	12
7	Old Rochester Bulldogs	93	95.8	+2.8	8	38%	68	55	7	8
8	Hingham High School Harborwomen	94	97.4	+3.4	9	52%	55	55	11	9
9	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	97	90.9	-6.1	7	78%	28	35	5	7
10	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	98	85.0	-13.0	6	94%	10	18	8	6
11	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	105	131.7	+26.7	13	16%	88	96	13	13
12	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	126	109.6	-16.4	12	90%	20	10	9	11
13	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	129	107.4	-21.6	10	>99%	4	6	10	10

Women's Eastern National Semi Finals ICSA · 05/20/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 16.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.0 · winner's chance 68% · this far off in 99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	69	77.9	+8.9	1	68%	66	79	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	91	100.2	+9.2	2	55%	63	73	2	2
3	Boston College Eagles	98	141.8	+43.8	6	12%	92	98	4	7
4	Harvard University Crimson	106	113.2	+7.2	3	67%	42	70	3	3
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	116	125.8	+9.8	4	63%	45	71	5	4
6	University of South Florida Bulls	117	169.3	+52.3	10	16%	86	98	8	9
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	131	148.3	+17.3	8	55%	52	79	7	8
8	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	146	146.8	+0.8	7	68%	38	54	11	5
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	155	136.2	-18.8	5	86%	17	26	9	6
10	Old Dominion University Monarchs	174	167.9	-6.1	9	63%	43	39	12	10
11	University of Hawaii Rainbows	199	186.3	-12.7	12	46%	60	28	6	11
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Herons	200	183.5	-16.5	11	65%	42	23	10	12
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	200	194.0	-6.0	13	49%	57	37	13	13
14	Boston University Terriers	209	202.9	-6.1	14	67%	41	35	16	15
15	Fordham University Rams	240	217.6	-22.4	16	60%	50	14	17	16
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	255	208.5	-46.5	15	93%	16	2	14	14
17	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	260	256.1	-3.9	17	95%	40	35	15	17
18	University of Texas Longhorns	312	301.7	-10.3	18	>99%	47	17	18	18

Women's Western National Semi Finals ICSA · 05/20/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 18.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 33.4 · winner's chance 76% · this far off in 61% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	57	68.4	+11.4	1	76%	62	85	1	1
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	78	100.0	+22.0	3	35%	79	93	2	3
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	107	127.6	+20.6	6	18%	88	85	7	6
4	Brown University Bears	111	117.2	+6.2	4	50%	61	68	5	4
5	Tulane University Green Wave	124	96.1	-27.9	2	91%	14	16	4	2
6	Northeastern University Huskies	132	144.3	+12.3	7	44%	65	72	11	7
7	College of Charleston Cougars	141	124.5	-16.5	5	87%	19	27	3	5
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	155	169.6	+14.6	8	42%	66	73	12	9
9	Tufts University Jumbos	170	181.1	+11.1	10	42%	66	66	9	10
10	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	181	207.5	+26.5	13	24%	81	82	13	13
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	189	223.4	+34.4	14	19%	84	86	15	16
12	University of Rhode Island Rams	194	194.7	+0.7	11	68%	40	49	14	11
13	Jacksonville University Fins	202	171.6	-30.4	9	94%	8	11	8	8
14	Rollins College Tars	219	228.7	+9.7	15	42%	65	62	10	15
15	Clemson University Tigers	235	230.6	-4.4	16	55%	53	37	6	14
16	Christopher Newport University Captains	244	203.4	-40.6	12	94%	10	4	18	12
17	University of Vermont Catamounts	246	235.5	-10.5	17	85%	25	27	17	17
18	Northwestern University Wildcats	293	253.8	-39.2	18	>99%	22	1	16	18

Women's Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/22/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 34.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.2 · winner's chance 39% · this far off in 55% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	198	182.9	-15.1	2	39%	80	43	1	1
2	Tulane University Green Wave	209	253.8	+44.8	5	12%	93	88	8	5
3	Harvard University Crimson	223	265.2	+42.2	6	15%	90	89	5	6
4	Yale University Bulldogs	250	176.5	-73.5	1	95%	7	4	2	2
5	Cornell University Big Red	255	242.8	-12.2	3	63%	44	44	6	4
6	Boston College Eagles	277	326.5	+49.5	12	11%	92	88	9	12
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	284	243.9	-40.1	4	84%	20	18	3	3
8	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	287	317.1	+30.1	10	36%	69	72	13	13
9	Brown University Bears	294	288.9	-5.1	7	67%	39	47	7	7
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	297	305.2	+8.2	8	63%	42	57	11	8
11	College of Charleston Cougars	307	318.0	+11.0	11	61%	44	61	4	9
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	314	403.9	+89.9	17	9%	93	98	18	17
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	320	312.6	-7.4	9	82%	22	42	10	10
13	Northeastern University Huskies	320	356.4	+36.4	15	49%	57	78	17	15
15	Roger Williams University Hawks	371	336.0	-35.0	13	86%	19	18	16	14
16	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	388	338.3	-49.7	14	94%	10	8	14	11
17	University of South Florida Bulls	426	385.8	-40.2	16	84%	24	10	12	16
18	Tufts University Jumbos	453	418.1	-34.9	18	>99%	21	11	15	18

NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) ISSA · 05/24/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 24.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.5 · winner's chance 21% · this far off in 79% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	147	156.3	+9.3	2	21%	90	76	8	3
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	174	162.1	-11.9	3	41%	71	46	2	2
3	St. George's School Dragons	175	139.5	-35.5	1	88%	21	19	1	1
4	Brunswick School Bruins	182	166.6	-15.4	4	80%	31	43	3	4
5	Barrington High School Eagles	204	230.1	+26.1	6	41%	71	81	4	5
6	Greenwich High School Cardinals	247	219.4	-27.6	5	74%	37	26	9	6
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	251	290.9	+39.9	9	25%	82	85	12	8
8	Belmont Hill School Varsity	257	334.2	+77.2	11	15%	88	95	5	11
9	Dartmouth High School Sailing	261	265.1	+4.1	7	78%	27	54	7	7
10	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	277	290.7	+13.7	8	71%	36	63	11	10
11	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	303	303.2	+0.2	10	74%	34	50	6	9
12	Milton Academy Mustangs	338	340.7	+2.7	12	54%	53	49	15	12
13	East Greenwich High School Avengers	360	379.2	+19.2	16	28%	77	62	16	16
14	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	383	369.4	-13.6	15	58%	50	26	14	15
15	Winchester High School Varsity	395	360.0	-35.0	14	85%	23	9	10	13
16	Lincoln Academy Eagles	409	344.8	-64.2	13	>99%	4	1	13	14

Open Eastern Semi Finals ICSA · 05/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.1 · winner's chance 30% · this far off in 34% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	123	117.0	-6.0	2	30%	85	48	1	2
2	Brown University Bears	126	133.7	+7.7	3	28%	80	67	2	4
3	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	135	144.9	+9.9	5	28%	78	69	7	5
4	Tulane University Green Wave	139	135.8	-3.2	4	54%	53	50	4	3
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	141	150.6	+9.6	6	46%	60	68	10	6
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	148	163.1	+15.1	7	41%	66	74	11	7
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	154	214.3	+60.3	12	5%	96	98	15	12
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	154	171.6	+17.6	9	40%	66	75	13	9
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	157	183.9	+26.9	11	50%	56	83	9	10
10	Cornell University Big Red	164	170.4	+6.4	8	77%	28	61	5	8
11	Roger Williams University Hawks	169	114.3	-54.7	1	>99%	0	3	3	1
12	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	174	182.5	+8.5	10	90%	15	64	8	11
13	Webb Institute Clippers	229	240.3	+11.3	15	33%	74	62	6	15
14	Florida State University Seminoles	245	254.0	+9.0	16	33%	74	56	14	16
15	Northeastern University Huskies	250	230.8	-19.2	13	81%	28	19	16	14
16	Eckerd College Tritons	268	235.9	-32.1	14	88%	19	10	12	13
17	Connecticut College Camels	302	257.5	-44.5	17	96%	19	2	18	17
18	University of Michigan Wolverines	342	319.5	-22.5	18	>99%	45	4	17	18

Open Western Semi Finals ICSA · 05/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 22.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.4 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 31% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	82	110.9	+28.9	1	38%	81	96	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	94	128.5	+34.5	3	32%	77	96	2	3
3	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	143	186.6	+43.6	10	2%	98	95	16	11
4	Boston College Eagles	149	133.6	-15.4	5	57%	50	30	5	5
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	153	164.0	+11.0	7	26%	79	69	6	7
5	Georgetown University Hoyas	153	153.1	+0.1	6	36%	69	56	3	6
7	College of Charleston Cougars	168	131.9	-36.1	4	87%	16	11	7	2
8	Tufts University Jumbos	178	169.4	-8.6	9	56%	50	41	9	9
9	University of Miami Hurricanes	189	168.7	-20.3	8	69%	37	24	12	8
10	Jacksonville University Fins	190	205.7	+15.7	11	34%	72	70	4	10
11	Fordham University Rams	196	207.4	+11.4	12	46%	61	66	14	13
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	199	128.3	-70.7	2	>99%	0	0	8	4
13	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	222.7	220.8	-1.9	13	61%	47	44	11	12
14	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	227	246.9	+19.9	16	41%	66	71	13	15
15	University of Wisconsin Badgers	255	291.0	+36.0	17	8%	94	89	18	17
16	Old Dominion University Monarchs	257	243.7	-13.3	15	91%	21	24	17	16
17	University of South Florida Bulls	258	226.3	-31.7	14	99%	2	11	10	14
18	University of Texas Longhorns	301	303.2	+2.2	18	>99%	29	42	15	18

Open Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/29/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 25.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.5 · winner's chance 39% · this far off in 19% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	58	86.6	+28.6	1	39%	81	96	1	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	74	130.3	+56.3	8	7%	95	99	6	8
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	91	139.9	+48.9	11	6%	95	97	8	11
4	Yale University Bulldogs	98	108.6	+10.6	3	46%	60	72	3	4
5	Harvard University Crimson	107	98.3	-8.7	2	72%	33	40	2	2
6	Brown University Bears	113	113.5	+0.5	4	57%	47	52	4	5
7	Tufts University Jumbos	119	143.2	+24.2	13	26%	77	79	12	14
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	132	182.2	+50.2	18	1%	99	98	18	18
9	College of Charleston Cougars	135	113.9	-21.1	5	78%	25	20	9	3
10	Boston College Eagles	136	114.3	-21.7	6	84%	19	18	7	6
11	University of Miami Hurricanes	148	142.6	-5.4	12	51%	53	40	15	12
12	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	149	155.5	+6.5	15	39%	64	58	17	17
13	Georgetown University Hoyas	151	137.0	-14.0	10	77%	27	26	5	9
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	159	144.7	-14.3	14	75%	29	24	13	13
15	Tulane University Green Wave	161	125.1	-35.9	7	95%	6	6	10	7
16	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	168	136.6	-31.4	9	94%	9	9	14	10
17	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	193	165.3	-27.7	17	85%	23	8	11	16
18	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	206	156.3	-49.7	16	>99%	4	1	16	15

ISSA Fleet Nationals (Mallory Trophy) ISSA · 05/31/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 40.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 88.1 · winner's chance 67% · this far off in 71% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	266.6	205.6	-61.0	1	67%	66	15	4	1
2	Antilles School Hurricanes	270	302.0	+32.0	5	20%	86	76	9	5
3	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	294	329.3	+35.3	6	18%	87	81	8	6
4	Severn School Admirals	301	297.4	-3.6	4	53%	56	55	1	4
5	Christchurch School Seahorses	307.8	296.6	-11.2	3	69%	39	49	3	3
6	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	326	386.0	+60.0	9	20%	83	88	11	9
7	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	327	258.3	-68.7	2	97%	4	11	7	2
7	St. George's School Dragons	327	404.1	+77.1	11	21%	83	93	10	11
9	Tabor Academy Seawolves	345	402.1	+57.1	10	43%	61	85	13	12
10	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	351	376.2	+25.2	8	70%	34	68	15	10
11	Southern Regional High School Rams	407	414.6	+7.6	12	57%	49	58	5	8
12	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	443	426.6	-16.4	13	63%	44	37	19	14
13	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	444	374.6	-69.4	7	95%	8	11	2	7
14	Jones College Prep Eagles	445	513.9	+68.9	15	33%	74	90	14	15
15	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	547	466.0	-81.0	14	83%	24	5	6	13
16	Lake Forest High School Scouts	559	530.6	-28.4	16	67%	45	20	18	17
17	Wayzata High School Navy	565	599.9	+34.9	18	28%	80	72	20	18
18	Olympia High School Bears	603	609.0	+6.0	19	50%	61	44	16	19
19	Clear Lake High School Falcons Green	621	575.3	-45.7	17	88%	20	15	12	16
20	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	643	631.8	-11.2	20	>99%	21	30	17	20

Fall 2025

2025 NWISA WINB Regatta (PCISA Girls' Qualifiers) ISSA · 09/13/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 36.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.9 · winner's chance 3% · this far off in 2% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Lions	43	121.9	+78.9	8	3%	99	100	8	7
2	Olympia High School Bears 1	68	75.9	+7.9	2	37%	76	78	5	2
3	Capital High School Cougars	73	117.2	+44.2	7	6%	96	98	7	12
4	Southern ME 2	73.5	121.9	+48.4	8	17%	85	94	8	7
5	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	74	91.6	+17.6	3	54%	53	86	2	3
6	Southern ME 3	78	121.9	+43.9	8	28%	74	93	8	7
7	Lakeside School Lions	83	51.8	-31.2	1	>99%	1	9	1	1
8	Beavers	103	121.9	+18.9	8	42%	62	73	8	7
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	113	94.1	-18.9	4	87%	17	22	3	4
10	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	121	103.0	-18.0	6	85%	19	21	4	5
11	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	147	101.0	-46.0	5	85%	18	6	6	6
12	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	163	162.4	-0.6	15	24%	81	33	15	15
13	Olympia High School Bears 2	167	132.2	-34.8	13	82%	24	4	13	13
14	Southern ME 1	199	121.9	-77.1	8	94%	10	0	8	7
15	Olympia High School Bears 3	205	141.2	-63.8	14	>99%	8	0	14	14

MISSA Girls Championship 2025 ISSA · 09/20/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 16.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 31.2 · winner's chance 80% · this far off in 49% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	49	64.9	+15.9	1	80%	60	98	2	1
2	Minnetonka High School Skippers	118	132.0	+14.0	3	2%	99	82	3	3
3	Madison West Varsity	120	81.8	-38.2	2	99%	2	2	1	2
4	New Trier HS Trevian	126	135.6	+9.6	4	70%	47	74	6	4
5	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	135	158.2	+23.2	5	44%	68	92	8	6
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	165.4	170.5	+5.1	7	45%	65	56	5	7
7	East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	170	160.5	-9.5	6	84%	26	27	4	5
8	Loyola Academy Ramblers	194	176.5	-17.5	8	>99%	20	9	7	8

NESSA Great Oaks Qualifier ISSA · 09/20/2025 · 14 teams · site model off 6.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.1 · winner's chance 4% · this far off in 80% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Greely High School - Maine Rangers	10	32.6	+22.6	9	4%	98	99	12	9
2	Sharon High School Eagles	15	21.7	+6.7	3	29%	78	82	8	3
3	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	23	27.1	+4.1	7	24%	81	67	6	7
3	Staples High School Wreckers	23	20.8	-2.2	2	46%	60	44	1	2
5	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	28	26.1	-1.9	6	46%	58	45	7	4
5	East Greenwich High School Avengers	28	19.4	-8.6	1	73%	32	19	11	1
7	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	30	26.1	-3.9	5	66%	39	35	5	6
7	Guilford High School Grizzlies	30	25.3	-4.7	4	66%	38	35	2	5
7	Portland High School Bulldogs	30	37.1	+7.1	12	27%	77	74	10	12
10	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	33	31.8	-1.2	8	74%	30	43	3	8
11	Duxbury High School Dragons	36	40.7	+4.7	13	51%	54	64	13	13
12	Wilton High School Warriors	39	35.2	-3.8	11	81%	25	35	4	10
13	Cheverus High School Varsity	46	42.3	-3.7	14	75%	33	32	14	14
14	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	51	33.6	-17.4	10	>99%	4	4	9	11

Women's Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 09/27/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.6 · winner's chance 20% · this far off in 52% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	61	106.8	+45.8	2	20%	90	100	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	96	110.1	+14.1	3	34%	74	78	7	2
3	Brown University Bears	97	106.2	+9.2	1	54%	54	74	4	3
4	Tulane University Green Wave	106	139.4	+33.4	7	23%	81	90	3	8
5	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	115	110.3	-4.7	4	71%	34	49	9	4
6	College of Charleston Cougars	133	146.2	+13.2	8	33%	73	73	2	7
7	Harvard University Crimson	147	116.9	-30.1	6	86%	19	13	6	6
8	Boston College Eagles	165	162.4	-2.6	9	40%	68	46	12	9
9	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	172	182.5	+10.5	10	30%	75	63	14	10
10	Roger Williams University Hawks	174	115.0	-59.0	5	99%	2	1	8	5
11	George Washington University Revolutionaries	179	186.4	+7.4	11	51%	56	58	13	11
11	Jacksonville University Fins	179	217.2	+38.2	16	13%	90	92	11	15
13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	188	201.3	+13.3	13	58%	50	65	15	14
14	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	206	187.7	-18.3	12	85%	20	22	5	12
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	210	213.0	+3.0	15	75%	35	50	16	16
16	Columbia University Lions	246	201.4	-44.6	14	98%	7	2	10	13
17	Boston University Terriers	285	275.3	-9.7	17	87%	51	22	17	17
18	University of Wisconsin Badgers	320	300.0	-20.0	18	>99%	43	1	18	18

Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Round 1A ICSA · 09/27/2025 · 17 teams · site model off 21.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.4 · winner's chance 18% · this far off in 59% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Dartmouth College Big Green	73	93.4	+20.4	3	18%	91	90	5	3
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	75	82.0	+7.0	2	69%	48	74	1	2
3	Tufts University Jumbos	99	111.8	+12.8	4	34%	75	77	4	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	101	80.5	-20.5	1	96%	8	21	2	1
5	Northeastern University Huskies	104	156.6	+52.6	8	17%	88	99	14	10
6	University of Rhode Island Rams	127	154.2	+27.2	6	31%	76	89	10	8
7	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	142	169.6	+27.6	11	25%	79	84	15	11
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	144	137.9	-6.1	5	79%	26	43	7	5
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	164	154.6	-9.4	7	70%	36	34	6	7
10	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	182	163.8	-18.2	10	67%	39	22	8	9
11	University of South Florida Bulls	183	181.0	-2.0	12	55%	52	47	9	12
12	Connecticut College Camels	188	216.9	+28.9	14	18%	86	86	16	15
13	Rollins College Tars	206	156.9	-49.1	9	97%	5	2	3	6
14	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	227	223.6	-3.4	15	47%	62	35	13	14
15	Clemson University Tigers	234	230.2	-3.8	16	50%	59	37	11	16
16	Fordham University Rams	242	236.9	-5.1	17	66%	46	31	17	17
17	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	267	203.8	-63.2	13	>99%	4	0	12	13

MISSA NE Great Lakes Championships ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 12.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.2 · winner's chance 50% · this far off in 87% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Grand Haven High School GH Blue	72	83.0	+11.0	1	50%	75	82	1	1
2	Spring Lake High School Red	84	99.1	+15.1	3	38%	72	82	2	2
3	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	92	114.1	+22.1	6	22%	84	93	8	7
4	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	101	98.4	-2.6	2	72%	37	49	3	3
5	Black River Public School Varsity	102	111.2	+9.2	5	63%	45	69	5	5
6	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	124	106.5	-17.5	4	84%	23	17	6	4
7	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	139	127.1	-11.9	7	63%	47	24	4	6
8	East Grand Rapids EGR Varsity Gold	140	130.1	-9.9	8	81%	31	29	7	8
9	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	167	147.0	-20.0	9	98%	29	8	9	9
10	Troy High School Troy	190	193.4	+3.4	10	>99%	47	47	10	10

MISSA SW Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 13 teams · site model off 13.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 19.3 · winner's chance 69% · this far off in 75% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	25	49.8	+24.8	1	69%	66	100	1	1
2	New Trier HS Trevian	66	68.5	+2.5	3	44%	73	66	5	2
3	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	80	113.4	+33.4	7	4%	97	97	4	7
4	Lake Forest High School Scouts	88	65.2	-22.8	2	87%	18	18	3	3
5	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	89	90.6	+1.6	4	70%	39	59	7	4
6	Latin School of Chicago Romans	92	110.7	+18.7	6	43%	64	85	2	6
7	Loyola Academy Ramblers	118	104.6	-13.4	5	70%	37	23	8	5
8	Whitney Young Dolphins	121	127.7	+6.7	11	39%	67	61	10	11
9	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	132	121.4	-10.6	8	69%	40	24	11	10
10	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	135	123.9	-11.1	10	76%	32	29	9	9
11	Oak Park River Forest Huskies	140.4	121.9	-18.5	9	98%	10	15	6	8
12	DePaul College Prep Rams	176	176.8	+0.8	12	62%	65	42	12	12
13	Glenbrook South High School Titans	191	181.6	-9.4	13	>99%	29	13	13	13

MISSA Southeast Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 09/27/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 4.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 4.8 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 11% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Pirates	7	10.3	+3.3	1	90%	55	94	1	1
2	Olentangy High School Braves	14	21.6	+7.6	3	27%	85	97	3	3
3	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	24	24.9	+0.9	4	29%	80	56	4	4
3	Upper Arlington UA Bears	24	25.0	+1.0	5	30%	79	57	5	5
5	Dublin Jerome Celtics	27	25.2	-1.8	6	75%	39	31	6	6
6	Bay High School Rockets	30	19.0	-11.0	2	>99%	2	1	2	2

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1A ICSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 16.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.9 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 69% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	68	92.3	+24.3	3	10%	95	93	8	3
2	Stanford University Cardinal	80	66.6	-13.4	1	78%	32	29	1	1
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	88	88.9	+0.9	2	49%	61	58	3	2
4	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	92	111.5	+19.5	6	27%	79	82	11	6
5	Cornell University Big Red	102	125.2	+23.2	9	19%	85	86	9	8
6	Jacksonville University Fins	103	128.0	+25.0	10	22%	82	89	6	10
6	Yale University Bulldogs	103	95.0	-8.0	4	75%	29	40	4	5
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	104	124.2	+20.2	8	52%	54	83	13	9
9	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	110	116.3	+6.3	7	73%	32	63	12	7
10	Georgetown University Hoyas	127	96.3	-30.7	5	96%	5	9	5	4
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	136	143.2	+7.2	11	54%	52	61	10	11
12	University of Miami Hurricanes	159	151.5	-7.5	13	51%	54	37	7	13
13	Eckerd College Tritons	169	167.9	-1.1	15	40%	67	44	14	15
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	175	196.7	+21.7	18	12%	91	81	16	18
15	Connecticut College Camels	176	161.4	-14.6	14	80%	27	22	17	14
16	George Washington University Revolutionaries	193	147.3	-45.7	12	96%	6	2	15	12
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	201	192.2	-8.8	17	72%	39	30	2	16
18	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	208	189.5	-18.5	16	>99%	11	13	18	17

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Round 1B ICSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 19.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 34.9 · winner's chance 25% · this far off in 76% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	57	87.4	+30.4	2	25%	87	97	2	2
2	Harvard University Crimson	66	80.4	+14.4	1	65%	47	85	1	1
3	College of Charleston Cougars	85	95.5	+10.5	3	51%	58	75	5	3
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	107	143.0	+36.0	7	8%	94	92	10	7
5	Boston College Eagles	109	116.2	+7.2	6	50%	58	66	3	6
6	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	110	100.8	-9.2	4	85%	20	39	7	4
7	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	123	154.3	+31.3	9	25%	80	89	15	9
8	Tulane University Green Wave	138	108.2	-29.8	5	92%	11	13	4	5
9	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	139	163.1	+24.1	10	37%	68	82	9	10
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	159	166.9	+7.9	12	41%	65	60	13	13
11	Tufts University Jumbos	161	150.3	-10.7	8	75%	30	35	11	8
12	Webb Institute Clippers	180	164.9	-15.1	11	67%	39	26	6	12
13	Fordham University Rams	193	172.4	-20.6	13	65%	41	19	16	11
14	University of South Florida Bulls	200	190.9	-9.1	16	53%	54	31	8	16
15	Old Dominion University Monarchs	215	180.7	-34.3	14	80%	26	5	12	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	227	240.6	+13.6	18	14%	90	68	18	18
17	Florida State University Seminoles	233	187.6	-45.4	15	98%	5	2	17	15
18	Hampton University Pirates	234	233.1	-0.9	17	>99%	18	41	14	17

2025 MISSA East Great Oaks Qualifier ISSA · 10/04/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 11.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 15.3 · winner's chance 20% · this far off in 36% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Westerville Central High School Warhawks	9	29.2	+20.2	3	20%	90	100	2	3
2	Black River Public School Varsity	14	23.2	+9.2	1	63%	50	91	3	1
3	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	38	41.3	+3.3	5	23%	83	64	6	5
4	New Albany High School Eagles	40	56.6	+16.6	9	10%	93	88	7	8
4	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	40	56.0	+16.0	7	10%	92	88	13	9
6	Dublin Coffman Rocks	48	38.3	-9.7	4	69%	36	26	4	4
7	Olentangy High School Braves	50	67.9	+17.9	13	11%	91	89	14	11
8	Rocky River High School Varsity	52	44.2	-7.8	6	74%	30	31	5	6
9	Spring Lake High School Red	55	25.6	-29.4	2	99%	2	1	1	2
10	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	60	71.2	+11.2	15	30%	73	73	15	15
11	Culver Academies Eagles	64	64.7	+0.7	11	53%	52	49	16	12
12	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	66	67.6	+1.6	12	54%	51	51	9	14
13	Dublin Jerome Varsity	69	56.0	-13.0	8	86%	18	19	11	7
14	St. Ignatius HS - Cleveland, OH Wildcats	73	60.8	-12.2	10	82%	21	24	8	10
14	Troy High School Varsity	73	81.7	+8.7	17	39%	66	69	12	17
16	Upper Arlington UA Bears	82	69.7	-12.3	14	91%	14	16	10	13
17	Danbury High School Danbury	93	77.8	-15.2	16	85%	23	19	17	16
18	Berkley High School (MI) Berkley	101	94.6	-6.4	18	>99%	24	20	18	18

Women's Atlantic Coast Championships Finals ICSA · 10/11/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 30.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.5 · winner's chance 75% · this far off in 72% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	136	144.8	+8.8	1	75%	63	74	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	152	229.2	+77.2	6	12%	93	99	8	6
3	Dartmouth College Big Green	164	229.2	+65.2	7	22%	83	98	9	7
4	Brown University Bears	198	218.5	+20.5	4	41%	66	77	6	4
5	Cornell University Big Red	216	240.0	+24.0	8	35%	70	75	10	8
6	Yale University Bulldogs	225	212.8	-12.2	3	71%	33	39	4	2
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	226	212.4	-13.6	2	79%	25	38	2	3
8	Tulane University Green Wave	252	245.5	-6.5	9	58%	47	44	5	9
9	Tufts University Jumbos	256	263.3	+7.3	10	50%	54	58	7	11
10	Boston College Eagles	272	300.9	+28.9	12	24%	80	80	16	12
11	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	286	321.5	+35.5	14	21%	83	78	12	14
12	College of Charleston Cougars	294	266.5	-27.5	11	79%	26	24	3	10
13	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	301	225.5	-75.5	5	98%	2	3	11	5
14	University of Rhode Island Rams	329	337.7	+8.7	17	38%	68	53	13	16
15	Old Dominion University Monarchs	354	315.7	-38.3	13	71%	35	12	14	13
16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	355	335.2	-19.8	16	68%	39	23	17	17
17	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	385	358.2	-26.8	18	64%	45	16	18	18
18	Northeastern University Huskies	390	330.9	-59.1	15	>99%	5	3	15	15

Women's Atlantic Coast Tournament ICSA · 10/11/2025 · 16 teams · site model off 24.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.6 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 61% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Roger Williams University Hawks	105	107.1	+2.1	1	90%	55	65	3	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	138	195.9	+57.9	5	14%	92	97	6	3
3	Connecticut College Camels	161	243.7	+82.7	10	6%	96	99	11	10
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	163	186.8	+23.8	3	50%	57	82	2	4
5	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	190	193.3	+3.3	4	55%	51	60	5	5
6	Rollins College Tars	196	200.4	+4.4	6	62%	45	59	1	6
7	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	200	210.3	+10.3	8	60%	46	64	9	8
8	Jacksonville University Fins	224	203.4	-20.6	7	79%	26	28	4	7
9	George Washington University Revolutionaries	255	178.1	-76.9	2	97%	5	1	8	2
10	Columbia University Lions	259	233.5	-25.5	9	80%	28	20	7	9
11	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	287	286.5	-0.5	12	38%	70	45	10	11
12	Fordham University Rams	288	297.4	+9.4	13	42%	67	55	13	13
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	292	273.4	-18.6	11	86%	21	23	14	12
14	Boston University Terriers	336	332.4	-3.6	15	44%	67	36	16	15
15	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	349	303.3	-45.7	14	94%	15	6	12	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	366	362.4	-3.6	16	>99%	33	37	15	16

2025 Sea Otter Regatta - GOLD ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 28 teams · site model off 59.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 109.9 · winner's chance 7% · this far off in 2% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	104	182.4	+78.4	3	7%	96	100	2	3
2	San Marcos High School Royals	131	221.6	+90.6	5	7%	96	100	15	4
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	135	137.0	+2.0	2	83%	24	66	1	2
4	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	156	129.2	-26.8	1	98%	4	33	4	1
5	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	192	275.8	+83.8	8	13%	90	98	21	8
6	Dos Pueblos Chargers 1	220	316.2	+96.2	9	12%	91	97	17	10
7	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	240	212.4	-27.6	4	79%	25	40	11	5
8	Redwood Giants 1	266.5	249.8	-16.7	7	74%	32	42	9	7
9	Redwood Giants 2	282	320.0	+38.0	10	36%	68	76	3	9
10	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	288	237.0	-51.0	6	94%	8	19	7	6
11	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	288.6	323.4	+34.8	11	57%	49	76	10	11
12	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	361	537.5	+176.5	24	1%	100	100	23	24
13	Crossroads Varsity	365	342.1	-22.9	12	66%	39	37	24	13
14	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	371	362.1	-8.9	13	65%	40	43	18	12
15	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	387	367.2	-19.8	14	73%	33	36	16	14
16	Stevenson School Pirates	443	393.2	-49.8	15	64%	42	18	5	15
17	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	462	548.5	+86.5	25	2%	98	93	28	26
18	Design Tech High School Dragons	490	553.7	+63.7	26	3%	98	85	25	25
19	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	492	424.3	-67.7	18	70%	34	13	13	18
20	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	492.9	417.6	-75.3	17	84%	19	7	19	16
21	Dos Pueblos Chargers 2	493.6	614.5	+120.9	28	11%	91	88	26	28
22	Parker	503	409.3	-93.7	16	95%	7	4	8	19
23	Coronado Islanders Islanders	516.1	466.7	-49.4	20	85%	19	14	14	20
24	Carlmont The Scots	535	452.9	-82.1	19	91%	11	6	6	17
25	San Pedro High School Pirates	539.5	496.1	-43.4	21	88%	17	16	12	21
26	Alameda High School Hornets	559	503.1	-55.9	23	91%	12	11	22	23
27	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	577	562.1	-14.9	27	82%	26	30	27	27
28	Bishop's School Knights	593	500.4	-92.6	22	>99%	1	2	20	22

2025 Sea Otter Regatta - SILVER ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 32 teams · site model off 76.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 83.6 · winner's chance 29% · this far off in 84% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Junipero Serra High School JSerra	120	191.2	+71.2	1	29%	85	97	2	1
2	SF University High School Red Devils	122	309.1	+187.1	12	3%	98	100	18	13
3	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	136	205.7	+69.7	2	49%	57	95	1	2
4	Blue and Gold Varsity	172	314.2	+142.2	14	7%	94	100	8	14
5	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	185.5	256.9	+71.4	5	34%	70	95	10	6
6	The Urban School Blues	201	291.6	+90.6	7	25%	77	95	12	9
7	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 1	204	272.3	+68.3	6	39%	64	90	4	5
8	Stevenson School Pirates	220	314.9	+94.9	15	22%	80	96	9	15
9	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	240.5	236.0	-4.5	3	78%	25	50	6	4
10	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	259.5	297.2	+37.7	8	42%	61	77	11	8
11	San Domenico High School Panthers	261	304.3	+43.3	10	43%	61	81	13	12
12	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	266	361.5	+95.5	20	26%	76	87	25	21
13	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets 2	278	300.0	+22.0	9	52%	50	67	5	10
14	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	282.1	380.4	+98.3	25	17%	85	94	29	26
15	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	299	307.6	+8.6	11	55%	48	60	7	7
16	Burlingame High School Burlingame	320	314.1	-5.9	13	59%	43	46	19	16
16	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 2	320	412.0	+92.0	30	20%	81	83	20	29
18	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	339	342.8	+3.8	19	52%	50	50	22	17
19	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks 1	357	393.9	+36.9	28	27%	75	69	26	30
20	Alameda High School Hornets	369	326.3	-42.7	17	68%	34	25	14	19
21	Carmel High School Padres	380.7	339.6	-41.1	18	68%	34	23	15	18
22	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	400	367.1	-32.9	22	53%	49	34	32	25
23	Mountain View High School (CA) Mountain View	412	248.0	-164.0	4	93%	8	3	3	3
23	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	412	408.9	-3.1	29	38%	65	42	27	27
25	Encinal High School Jets	415	433.8	+18.8	32	38%	65	52	30	32
26	Miramonte High School Matadors	435	378.4	-56.6	24	66%	37	22	24	24
27	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	440	364.7	-75.3	21	83%	19	8	17	22
28	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	464	315.1	-148.9	16	94%	8	2	16	11
29	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	518	421.1	-96.9	31	71%	33	2	31	31
30	Monterey High School Toreadores	529.9	388.0	-141.9	26	83%	20	3	21	23
31	Marin Catholic Wildcats	530	393.2	-136.8	27	91%	13	1	28	28
32	Proof School Proof	604	370.1	-233.9	23	>99%	4	0	23	20

Northwest Great Lakes Qualifier ISSA · 10/11/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 6.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.4 · winner's chance 29% · this far off in 61% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Latin School of Chicago Romans	45	53.0	+8.0	2	29%	85	82	1	1
1	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	45	56.3	+11.3	3	18%	91	91	2	3
3	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	52	52.5	+0.5	1	72%	37	57	4	2
4	Pewaukee High School Pirates	54	57.0	+3.0	4	78%	32	64	3	4
5	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	70	63.6	-6.4	5	85%	29	24	5	5
6	Loyola Academy Ramblers	89	80.4	-8.6	6	65%	55	15	6	6
7	Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	94	85.1	-8.9	7	>99%	28	13	7	7

Open Atlantic Coast Championship Finals ICSA · 10/18/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 25.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 47.4 · winner's chance 27% · this far off in 98% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	135	182.8	+47.8	2	27%	87	96	2	2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	152	165.3	+13.3	1	70%	41	74	1	1
3	Tulane University Green Wave	178	229.2	+51.2	6	21%	84	94	6	7
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	182	226.3	+44.3	5	35%	71	91	9	5
5	Brown University Bears	198	221.8	+23.8	4	48%	57	80	8	4
6	College of Charleston Cougars	209	212.5	+3.5	3	71%	34	57	10	3
7	Roger Williams University Hawks	234	245.8	+11.8	9	46%	59	65	11	9
8	Dartmouth College Big Green	240	231.6	-8.4	7	70%	34	44	4	8
9	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	265	281.2	+16.2	11	35%	70	64	12	11
10	Boston College Eagles	283.5	244.0	-39.5	8	78%	26	14	3	6
11	Yale University Bulldogs	285	270.6	-14.4	10	65%	40	33	7	10
12	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	308	295.1	-12.9	12	51%	54	35	13	12
13	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	325	301.4	-23.6	14	58%	48	22	17	14
14	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	332	295.2	-36.8	13	75%	30	15	16	13
15	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	350	371.1	+21.1	18	20%	84	65	15	18
16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	357	348.7	-8.3	16	57%	53	33	18	16
17	Jacksonville University Fins	373	306.1	-66.9	15	97%	6	2	5	15
18	Cornell University Big Red	378	359.3	-18.7	17	>99%	14	20	14	17

Open Atlantic Coast Tournament Finals ICSA · 10/18/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 28.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 50.8 · winner's chance 60% · this far off in 67% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	131	152.6	+21.6	1	60%	70	84	1	1
2	Tufts University Jumbos	161	175.8	+14.8	2	59%	58	77	4	2
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	163	208.4	+45.4	3	42%	67	92	6	3
4	George Washington University Revolutionaries	213	249.3	+36.3	6	17%	87	87	11	6
5	University of South Florida Bulls	225	272.4	+47.4	12	13%	90	89	7	12
6	Fordham University Rams	233	258.5	+25.5	8	30%	75	75	15	8
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	239	262.5	+23.5	11	36%	68	71	5	9
8	University of Rhode Island Rams	240	236.7	-3.3	5	71%	33	47	2	4
9	Eckerd College Tritons	250	251.1	+1.1	7	64%	40	50	9	7
10	Connecticut College Camels	256	260.7	+4.7	9	64%	40	55	13	11
11	Webb Institute Clippers	258	227.5	-30.5	4	90%	12	24	3	5
12	University of Vermont Catamounts	276	310.7	+34.7	14	34%	71	82	12	15
13	Florida State University Seminoles	279	275.9	-3.1	13	76%	28	47	14	13
14	Old Dominion University Monarchs	306	261.1	-44.9	10	94%	9	10	10	10
15	University of Michigan Wolverines	327	322.7	-4.3	15	61%	46	41	8	14
16	University of Wisconsin Badgers	389	375.1	-13.9	18	26%	80	25	18	18
17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	412	325.1	-86.9	16	94%	13	0	17	16
18	Hampton University Pirates	434	361.8	-72.2	17	>99%	15	1	16	17

Fall Brawl 2025 ISSA · 10/18/2025 · 11 teams · site model off 20.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.8 · winner's chance 23% · this far off in 1% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Fairhope High School Pirates	40	55.3	+15.3	2	23%	89	85	2	2
2	Ft. Walton Beach High School Vikings	59	57.1	-1.9	3	37%	72	50	4	3
3	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	63	88.6	+25.6	11	3%	98	96	7	9
4	Bay High School (FL) Bay High School	67	86.3	+19.3	10	10%	93	90	11	11
5	Bayside Academy Bayside Sailing	69	77.5	+8.5	7	31%	75	74	9	7
6	St. Michael Catholic High School Cardinals	72	83.1	+11.1	9	33%	72	75	10	10
7	UMS-Wright Bulldogs - Varsity	77	48.2	-28.8	1	98%	3	3	1	1
8	St. Patrick Catholic High School Fighting Irish	83	75.6	-7.4	5	71%	34	34	5	5
9	Niceville High School Varsity	88	63.1	-24.9	4	93%	9	8	3	4
10	Bayshore Christian School Eagles	118	81.5	-36.5	8	86%	21	1	8	8
11	Gulfport High School Admirals	125	75.6	-49.4	5	>99%	7	0	5	5

SAISA Fall Women's Championship ICSA · 10/24/2025 · 8 teams · site model off 14.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.8 · winner's chance 81% · this far off in 60% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	63	64.8	+1.8	1	81%	60	64	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	71	93.2	+22.2	2	55%	66	94	3	2
3	Rollins College Tars	99	106.1	+7.1	3	65%	54	69	2	3
4	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	131	156.5	+25.5	5	12%	93	89	5	5
5	Jacksonville University Fins	132	111.6	-20.4	4	98%	6	16	4	4
6	University of Miami Hurricanes	175	173.4	-1.6	6	57%	59	42	7	7
7	Clemson University Tigers	203	173.9	-29.1	7	88%	30	5	6	6
8	Florida State University Seminoles	218	208.5	-9.5	8	>99%	37	21	8	8

84th Professor Erwin Schell Trophy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.5 · winner's chance 68% · this far off in 88% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	127	118.5	-8.5	1	68%	66	47	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	128	198.5	+70.5	6	6%	96	100	4	6
3	Brown University Bears	172	156.0	-16.0	2	62%	49	35	5	2
4	Boston College Eagles	192	192.2	+0.2	5	35%	73	56	2	5
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	201	168.4	-32.6	4	80%	27	16	3	4
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	201	160.9	-40.1	3	86%	21	12	7	3
7	Tufts University Jumbos	221	208.2	-12.8	7	70%	40	38	6	7
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	238	228.7	-9.3	8	67%	44	40	11	8
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	243	279.3	+36.3	11	26%	80	87	9	10
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	262	273.7	+11.7	10	51%	57	61	12	11
11	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	292	261.1	-30.9	9	80%	28	16	13	9
12	Northeastern University Huskies	295	303.0	+8.0	13	52%	57	56	8	12
13	University of Vermont Catamounts	300	340.2	+40.2	15	30%	77	86	14	15
14	Boston University Terriers	304	314.9	+10.9	14	78%	33	60	16	14
15	Connecticut College Camels	309	300.0	-9.0	12	98%	6	36	15	13
16	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	402	384.2	-17.8	16	81%	47	19	10	16
17	Salve Regina University Seahawks	407	417.0	+10.0	17	99%	40	57	17	17
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	494	483.3	-10.7	18	>99%	49	11	18	18

MAISA Women's Fall Dinghy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 29.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.0 · winner's chance 69% · this far off in 1% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Georgetown University Hoyas	68	87.3	+19.3	1	69%	65	95	1	1
2	Cornell University Big Red	76	102.8	+26.8	2	90%	40	96	2	2
3	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	136	183.3	+47.3	7	9%	95	98	9	7
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	165	181.8	+16.8	6	28%	79	74	7	6
5	Old Dominion University Monarchs	174	153.0	-21.0	3	86%	22	21	4	3
6	George Washington University Revolutionaries	196	176.5	-19.5	5	70%	39	26	6	5
7	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	201	279.4	+78.4	11	1%	99	99	8	11
8	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	209	172.3	-36.7	4	97%	7	9	5	4
9	Columbia University Lions	230	199.6	-30.4	8	94%	13	14	3	8
10	Fordham University Rams	241	252.7	+11.7	10	71%	47	65	12	10
11	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	283	234.7	-48.3	9	98%	8	2	10	9
12	William and Mary Tribe	339	346.7	+7.7	14	7%	96	56	13	13
13	Washington College Shoremen	340	355.4	+15.4	15	21%	86	68	14	15
14	Princeton University Tigers	345	333.8	-11.2	13	84%	28	26	15	14
15	University of Virginia Wahoos	357	300.8	-56.2	12	>99%	1	1	11	12

NEISA Fall Tournament ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 6 teams · site model off 23.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.7 · winner's chance 47% · this far off in 34% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Massachusetts Maritime Academy Buccaneers	70	97.8	+27.8	1	47%	76	98	5	1
2	Middlebury College Panthers	110	118.6	+8.6	3	33%	79	72	2	4
3	Bentley University Falcons	113	123.8	+10.8	4	50%	62	71	3	3
4	University of Massachusetts at Amherst Minutemen	123	147.0	+24.0	5	37%	73	85	4	5
5	Brandeis University Judges	162.8	104.2	-58.6	2	>99%	3	0	1	2
6	Sacred Heart University Pioneers	202	188.6	-13.4	6	>99%	44	14	6	6

PCCSC Women's Fall Championship ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 9 teams · site model off 36.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 66.1 · winner's chance 98% · this far off in 89% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	83	80.6	-2.4	1	98%	51	56	1	1
2	University of Hawaii Rainbows	121	180.9	+59.9	3	48%	76	98	3	3
3	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	201	179.8	-21.2	2	90%	30	32	2	2
4	University of Washington Huskies	219	282.6	+63.6	5	31%	82	95	5	6
5	University of California at Berkeley Bears	267	276.6	+9.6	4	60%	52	62	8	5
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	276	294.3	+18.3	6	69%	42	66	4	4
7	Western Washington University Vikings	396	319.4	-76.6	7	77%	37	2	7	7
8	Arizona State University Sun Devils	429	427.5	-1.5	9	16%	91	39	9	9
8	University of Southern California Trojans	429	352.3	-76.7	8	88%	33	3	6	8

SAISA Fall Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 22.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 59.2 · winner's chance 98% · this far off in 72% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	76	56.3	-19.7	1	98%	51	13	2	1
2	Eckerd College Tritons	96	130.6	+34.6	4	14%	93	96	9	4
3	University of Miami Hurricanes	104	127.6	+23.6	3	38%	74	92	3	3
4	University of South Florida Bulls	104.5	138.2	+33.7	5	43%	67	95	6	5
5	Jacksonville University Fins	121	103.3	-17.7	2	98%	4	24	1	2
6	Florida State University Seminoles	146	150.9	+4.9	6	59%	51	64	11	6
7	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	149	161.4	+12.4	7	65%	45	73	7	7
8	Clemson University Tigers	156	170.5	+14.5	8	71%	41	75	4	8
9	Rollins College Tars	157	183.9	+26.9	9	84%	31	86	8	9
10	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	237	258.0	+21.0	12	14%	91	78	16	12
11	Georgia Institute of Technology Yellow Jackets	255	255.8	+0.8	11	40%	71	50	5	11
12	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	256	228.3	-27.7	10	89%	17	14	10	10
13	University of Florida Gators	285	298.3	+13.3	17	21%	84	63	17	17
14	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	288	277.4	-10.6	13	59%	48	33	13	14
15	University of South Carolina Gamecocks	303	287.4	-15.6	16	66%	43	20	15	13
16	University of North Carolina Tar Heels	332	286.2	-45.8	15	83%	26	2	12	16
17	The Citadel Bulldogs	336.5	284.4	-52.1	14	97%	11	2	14	15
18	University of Georgia Bulldogs	398	363.4	-34.6	18	>99%	44	0	18	18

SEISA Fall Open Fleet Race Champs ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 7 teams · site model off 27.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 43.6 · winner's chance 81% · this far off in 44% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	51	87.6	+36.6	1	81%	59	100	1	2
2	Rice University Owls	117	132.0	+15.0	3	44%	74	82	3	3
3	Texas A&M University Aggies	142	127.5	-14.5	2	89%	29	34	2	1
4	University of Texas Longhorns	191	224.0	+33.0	5	12%	93	87	5	5
5	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	226	170.7	-55.3	4	97%	9	2	4	4
6	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	249	241.6	-7.4	6	85%	41	29	7	6
7	University of Kansas Jayhawks	305	276.6	-28.4	7	>99%	39	2	6	7

The Victorian Urn Trophy ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 15 teams · site model off 16.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.4 · winner's chance 37% · this far off in 95% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	107	120.6	+13.6	1	37%	82	81	1	1
2	Dartmouth College Big Green	109	129.4	+20.4	2	46%	65	87	3	2
3	Harvard University Crimson	123	141.9	+18.9	4	41%	67	84	5	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	134	138.2	+4.2	3	64%	44	62	2	3
5	Tufts University Jumbos	143	170.2	+27.2	7	35%	71	84	4	7
6	Boston College Eagles	163	180.0	+17.0	8	32%	74	77	11	8
7	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	173	157.0	-16.0	6	81%	26	28	7	6
8	Roger Williams University Hawks	184	150.3	-33.7	5	94%	9	10	6	5
9	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	192	198.2	+6.2	9	57%	52	59	8	9
10	Northeastern University Huskies	206	219.7	+13.7	11	45%	65	69	9	11
11	University of Rhode Island Rams	211	210.2	-0.8	10	80%	30	46	10	10
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	249	243.3	-5.7	13	55%	56	37	12	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	264	241.7	-22.3	12	81%	31	18	13	12
14	University of Vermont Catamounts	289	264.9	-24.1	14	95%	30	9	14	14
15	Boston University Terriers	333	314.3	-18.7	15	>99%	45	7	15	15

War Memorial ICSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 20.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.8 · winner's chance 6% · this far off in 9% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	60	96.6	+36.6	5	6%	97	99	11	5
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	76	79.9	+3.9	2	46%	68	68	1	2
3	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	79	95.0	+16.0	4	40%	70	84	8	4
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	81	65.6	-15.4	1	96%	7	24	3	1
5	Fordham University Rams	114	131.1	+17.1	7	21%	85	79	15	7
6	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	117	84.7	-32.3	3	97%	7	8	6	3
7	Cornell University Big Red	150	153.6	+3.6	9	21%	85	58	10	9
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	157	123.2	-33.8	6	85%	22	8	14	6
9	Queen's University Gaels	160	194.3	+34.3	16	19%	85	79	2	16
10	Penn State University Nittany Lions	163	183.9	+20.9	12	21%	83	81	5	11
11	Virginia Tech Hokies	169	193.1	+24.1	14	24%	80	79	4	12
12	Webb Institute Clippers	170	187.4	+17.4	13	40%	66	77	9	13
13	Christopher Newport University Captains	181	169.2	-11.8	10	78%	27	30	17	10
13	Old Dominion University Monarchs	181	142.5	-38.5	8	97%	4	5	13	8
15	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	193	193.9	+0.9	15	72%	35	45	12	15
16	Princeton University Tigers	201	206.1	+5.1	17	68%	41	53	7	17
17	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	208	181.1	-26.9	11	>99%	3	10	18	14
18	Columbia University Lions	280	254.7	-25.3	18	>99%	41	1	16	18

MASSA 2025 Fall Fleet Championship ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 16.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.1 · winner's chance 64% · this far off in 44% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	38	50.6	+12.6	1	64%	68	90	1	1
2	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	68	74.9	+6.9	3	26%	84	75	3	3
3	Southern Regional High School Rams	70	91.2	+21.2	4	29%	82	93	4	4
4	Christchurch School Seahorses	87	58.6	-28.4	2	99%	5	7	2	2
5	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	120	129.5	+9.5	6	27%	83	71	7	6
6	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	121	114.1	-6.9	5	81%	30	41	5	5
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	134	134.6	+0.6	7	65%	47	55	9	7
8	Key School Zags	147	183.4	+36.4	11	12%	91	94	10	11
9	Hampton Roads Academy Navigators	169	192.0	+23.0	14	14%	89	81	12	15
10	Leonardtown High School Raiders	171	172.3	+1.3	10	51%	55	50	6	9
11	West Irondequoit Eagles	172	171.0	-1.0	9	64%	42	47	13	10
12	Ridge High School Red Devils	179	212.6	+33.6	17	14%	89	91	18	18
13	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	180	168.4	-11.6	8	84%	20	30	11	8
14	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	193	195.2	+2.2	15	57%	48	50	8	14
15	Henderson High School Warriors	206	185.9	-20.1	13	80%	25	18	14	13
16	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	218	184.4	-33.6	12	88%	16	9	16	12
17	Nardin Academy Gators	219	215.1	-3.9	18	70%	40	38	17	17
18	Seton Hall Preparatory School Pirates	245	202.1	-42.9	16	>99%	6	1	15	16

MISSA Great Lakes Championship ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 32.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 41.5 · winner's chance 34% · this far off in 12% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jones College Prep Eagles	81	91.9	+10.9	2	34%	83	77	3	2
2	New Trier HS Trevian	92	137.2	+45.2	5	8%	95	97	11	6
3	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	94	82.8	-11.2	1	91%	15	41	1	1
4	Lake Forest High School Scouts	97	116.7	+19.7	3	65%	42	81	5	4
5	Grand Haven High School GH Blue	150	153.9	+3.9	6	37%	70	60	4	5
5	Minnetonka High School Skippers	150	175.9	+25.9	7	15%	89	83	12	8
7	Blake School Bears	154	222.3	+68.3	15	7%	95	98	7	13
7	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	154	220.0	+66.0	13	6%	95	98	13	14
9	Rocky River High School Varsity	158	127.3	-30.7	4	97%	5	18	2	3
10	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	167	214.6	+47.6	12	29%	75	91	10	12
11	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	203	182.5	-20.5	9	72%	32	25	14	10
12	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	210	182.3	-27.7	8	80%	23	18	8	7
13	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	219	247.2	+28.2	18	18%	85	80	19	18
14	Wayzata High School Navy	232	195.6	-36.4	10	80%	24	14	16	11
15	Latin School of Chicago Romans	236	228.5	-7.5	17	58%	48	37	9	17
16	Brother Rice/Marian High School - MI BRM Blue	241	221.2	-19.8	14	75%	30	24	18	16
17	Pewaukee High School Pirates	258	224.6	-33.4	16	83%	22	11	15	15
18	Spring Lake High School Red	268	197.2	-70.8	11	98%	3	1	6	9
19	Thomas Worthington High School Cardinals	309	277.1	-31.9	19	64%	46	11	17	19
20	Upper Arlington UA Bears	315	281.2	-33.8	20	>99%	21	6	20	20

NWISA Fall Championships ISSA · 10/25/2025 · 18 teams · site model off 42.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 52.0 · winner's chance 5% · this far off in 11% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Olympia High School Bears	73	155.0	+82.0	3	5%	98	100	6	3
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	114	99.1	-14.9	1	90%	18	42	1	1
2	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	114	141.3	+27.3	2	35%	78	91	4	2
4	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	136.5	160.3	+23.8	5	49%	59	84	3	5
5	Gig Harbor High School Tides	138	189.4	+51.4	7	30%	76	96	7	7
6	Ballard High School Beavers	180.4	158.7	-21.7	4	81%	25	30	5	4
7	Anacortes High School Seahawks	228	253.1	+25.1	11	10%	93	75	10	12
8	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	230	240.8	+10.8	9	24%	81	64	12	11
9	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	232	294.3	+62.3	16	8%	94	93	17	15
10	Lakeside School Lions	239	168.3	-70.7	6	97%	4	3	2	6
11	Ingraham High School Rams	239.7	250.9	+11.2	10	55%	50	60	9	10
12	Sehome High School Mariners	258	286.7	+28.7	13	33%	72	75	15	17
13	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	263	219.5	-43.5	8	95%	7	10	8	8
14	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	282	288.7	+6.7	15	56%	51	53	16	14
15	Capital High School Cougars	303	343.4	+40.4	18	16%	87	83	18	18
16	Orcas High School Vikings	350	264.1	-85.9	12	91%	12	1	11	9
17	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	355	288.6	-66.4	14	94%	12	1	14	13
18	Columbia High School - WA Bruins	389	301.6	-87.4	17	>99%	8	0	13	16

SEISA Fall Women's Fleet Race Champs ICSA · 10/26/2025 · 4 teams · site model off 10.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 22.3 · winner's chance 79% · this far off in 65% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	28	45.0	+17.0	1	79%	61	100	3	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	62	65.8	+3.8	2	72%	55	62	1	2
3	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	98	94.1	-3.9	4	36%	79	32	4	4
4	University of Texas Longhorns	100	83.2	-16.8	3	>99%	14	8	2	3

MCSA Fall Championship ICSA · 11/01/2025 · 10 teams · site model off 24.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.3 · winner's chance 17% · this far off in 11% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	58	97.2	+39.2	4	17%	91	100	1	1
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	74	86.6	+12.6	1	60%	51	86	5	2
3	Northwestern University Wildcats 2	85	138.0	+53.0	8	4%	98	100	7	8
4	Northwestern University Wildcats 1	91	96.9	+5.9	3	72%	35	67	8	5
5	University of Wisconsin Badgers	104	107.8	+3.8	5	66%	43	61	6	6
6	Michigan Technological University MTU Husky One	124	96.9	-27.1	2	94%	11	6	2	3
7	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	138	130.5	-7.5	7	65%	48	32	4	7
8	Marquette University Golden Eagles	165	170.2	+5.2	9	19%	88	53	10	9
9	Ohio State University Buckeyes	184	112.0	-72.0	6	>99%	0	0	3	4
10	University of Chicago Maroons	192	174.0	-18.0	10	>99%	25	6	9	10

2025 PCISA Anteater Gold ISSA · 11/08/2025 · 34 teams · site model off 41.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 76.0 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 47% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers 1	93	113.2	+20.2	1	41%	79	88	2	1
2	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 1	99	133.8	+34.8	3	42%	69	94	3	2
3	Point Loma High School Pointers 2	117	161.6	+44.6	4	32%	75	94	6	5
4	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 1	139	190.2	+51.2	7	23%	82	94	11	7
5	Mater Dei High School Monarchs 2	156	133.3	-22.7	2	82%	24	41	1	3
6	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 1	182	166.9	-15.1	5	77%	31	45	8	4
7	San Marcos High School Royals 1	236	167.4	-68.6	6	88%	19	9	12	6
8	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	256	301.8	+45.8	11	10%	93	86	22	11
9	Redwood Giants	277	278.2	+1.2	10	35%	71	56	4	10
10	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings 2	279	248.4	-30.6	8	68%	39	35	7	8
11	Crossroads Varsity	320	310.4	-9.6	12	38%	67	46	28	12
12	Dos Pueblos Chargers 1	334	251.4	-82.6	9	82%	21	10	13	9
13	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	343	413.5	+70.5	24	5%	96	90	23	25
14	San Marcos High School Royals 2	349	328.1	-20.9	14	52%	51	40	20	14
15	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	351	378.6	+27.6	16	27%	76	70	29	21
16	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons 2	364	387.6	+23.6	19	27%	75	67	27	20
17	Mira Costa High School Mustangs 2	372	383.9	+11.9	18	38%	65	58	19	22
18	Parker Parker 1	376	383.0	+7.0	17	48%	55	53	15	19
19	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 2	388	438.5	+50.5	26	22%	80	77	5	24
20	Mira Costa High School Mustangs 1	389	366.7	-22.3	15	68%	35	36	14	15
21	Alameda High School Hornets	407	405.7	-1.3	23	52%	51	44	18	18
22	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs 1	410	327.1	-82.9	13	94%	7	6	17	13
23	Parker Parker 2	417	394.5	-22.5	20	70%	33	32	26	23
24	Brentwood	420.8	572.5	+151.7	33	6%	94	95	32	33
25	San Pedro High School Pirates	457	463.1	+6.1	28	37%	67	50	16	28
26	Carlmont The Scots	462	395.5	-66.5	21	78%	25	17	9	16
27	Santa Barbara High School Dons	466	572.5	+106.5	33	11%	90	88	32	33
28	Junipero Serra High School JSerra	471	403.1	-67.9	22	90%	12	10	10	17
29	SF University High School Red Devils	478	493.8	+15.8	31	48%	57	56	25	31
30	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	500	482.5	-17.5	30	68%	37	30	30	30
31	Coronado Islanders Islanders	501	461.7	-39.3	27	88%	15	16	24	27
32	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	509	477.0	-32.0	29	92%	13	20	21	29
33	Dos Pueblos Chargers 2	521	414.9	-106.1	25	99%	1	3	34	26
34	Design Tech High School Dragons	528	499.5	-28.5	32	>99%	3	24	31	32

2025 PCISA Anteater SILVER ISSA · 11/08/2025 · 30 teams · site model off 44.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 66.0 · winner's chance 17% · this far off in 75% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	La Jolla High School Vikings	139	182.2	+43.2	3	17%	92	90	14	3
2	The Urban School Blues	175	236.4	+61.4	9	5%	97	95	8	5
3	Bishop's School Knights	200	235.5	+35.5	8	12%	91	83	12	10
4	Stevenson School Pirates 1	201	176.1	-24.9	2	64%	42	37	3	2
5	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	202	208.9	+6.9	4	46%	60	66	6	4
6	St. Joseph High School (CA) Jesters	210	227.5	+17.5	5	42%	61	66	7	9
7	Redwood Giants	217	286.8	+69.8	13	18%	85	90	4	13
8	Stevenson School Pirates 2	219	252.0	+33.0	10	40%	64	78	5	8
9	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	235	234.3	-0.7	7	62%	42	57	9	6
10	Blue and Gold Varsity	245	280.9	+35.9	12	40%	62	70	10	12
11	Sato Academy of Mathematics and Science Dragons	255	156.8	-98.2	1	99%	2	4	1	1
12	Falcons	261	357.8	+96.8	19	24%	77	84	20	19
13	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	276	325.4	+49.4	15	30%	73	81	27	18
14	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	285	333.5	+48.5	17	27%	76	84	23	17
15	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	296	359.5	+63.5	20	21%	82	87	18	20
16	Coastal Academy High School Stingrays	300	322.2	+22.2	14	51%	52	63	11	15
17	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	302	229.7	-72.3	6	89%	12	19	15	11
18	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	311	373.5	+62.5	23	27%	76	89	22	27
19	The College Preparatory School The College Preparat	325	254.2	-70.8	11	92%	9	14	2	7
20	Pacific Grove High School Breakers	350	329.1	-20.9	16	70%	33	34	19	16
21	Brophy College Preparatory Brophy	382	362.2	-19.8	21	54%	49	33	21	22
22	Design Tech High School Dragons	385	373.9	-11.1	24	53%	50	39	17	21
23	San Dieguito High School Academy Mustangs	390	345.5	-44.5	18	76%	26	20	13	14
24	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	417	417.2	+0.2	28	38%	66	42	28	28
25	Monterey High School Toreadores	420	390.1	-29.9	26	64%	39	25	24	25
26	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	423	396.0	-27.0	27	72%	33	23	26	26
27	Harvard-Westlake Varsity	450	367.2	-82.8	22	87%	15	6	25	24
28	St. Ignatius College Preparatory - San Francisco Wildcats	451	425.9	-25.1	29	74%	32	22	29	29
29	Marin Catholic Wildcats	501	479.1	-21.9	30	52%	57	20	30	30
30	Del Norte High School Night Hawks	514	380.5	-133.5	25	>99%	3	1	16	23

Fall Pacific Coast Championship ICSA · 11/15/2025 · 20 teams · site model off 16.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.1 · winner's chance 74% · this far off in 26% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	22	43.4	+21.4	1	74%	63	99	1	1
2	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	49	68.7	+19.7	2	34%	78	93	4	3
3	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	69	85.6	+16.6	6	22%	84	85	9	6
4	San Diego State University Aztecs	72	74.9	+2.9	3	57%	52	61	6	2
5	University of Southern California Trojans	86	75.6	-10.4	4	69%	38	32	3	4
6	Santa Barbara City College Vaqueros	93	110.7	+17.7	9	20%	83	80	5	10
7	Western Washington University Vikings	94	89.9	-4.1	7	66%	40	44	2	5
8	University of Hawaii Rainbows 1	95	83.2	-11.8	5	81%	23	35	8	7
9	University of Washington Huskies	106	118.3	+12.3	11	38%	68	75	11	9
10	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	117	131.5	+14.5	12	28%	76	76	10	11
11	University of California at Berkeley Bears	124	135.1	+11.1	13	38%	68	68	16	14
12	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 1	126	107.5	-18.5	8	90%	14	19	7	8
13	University of Hawaii Rainbows 2	128	116.5	-11.5	10	90%	15	32	12	12
14	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	157	180.2	+23.2	16	11%	92	87	15	15
15	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	186	195.5	+9.5	19	11%	93	66	18	18
16	University of California at Davis Aggies	191	192.3	+1.3	18	24%	83	48	20	19
17	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs 2	197	191.0	-6.0	17	50%	57	33	13	17
18	Santa Clara University Broncos	198	206.1	+8.1	20	32%	75	65	19	20
19	University of California at San Diego Tritons	205	135.7	-69.3	14	>99%	0	0	14	13
20	Arizona State University Sun Devils	214	178.1	-35.9	15	>99%	2	0	17	16

Spring 2026

SEISA Girls Champs ISSA · 03/21/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 13.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.3 · winner's chance 33% · this far off in 84% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 1	16	35.8	+19.8	2	33%	84	100	2	2
2	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 2	29	33.1	+4.1	1	68%	45	73	1	1
3	Flour Bluff High School Hornets 3	32	47.5	+15.5	3	40%	69	93	4	4
4	London High School Pirates 1	39	51.4	+12.4	5	46%	61	83	7	6
5	London High School Pirates 2	51	65.9	+14.9	8	22%	84	89	10	10
6	The Willow School Willow Lions	57	49.4	-7.6	4	75%	31	32	3	3
7	Ursuline Academy Lions 1	72	60.9	-11.1	7	68%	40	16	9	7
8	Ben Franklin High School Falcons 1	80	59.0	-21.0	6	81%	25	6	6	5
9	Ben Franklin High School Falcons 2	87	71.9	-15.1	9	72%	39	8	5	8
10	Ursuline Academy Lions 2	92	75.1	-16.9	10	>99%	15	1	8	9

MAISA Spring Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 03/28/2026 · 15 teams · site model off 17.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 48.9 · winner's chance 50% · this far off in 75% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cornell University Big Red	98	90.4	-7.6	2	50%	75	44	2	2
2	Georgetown University Hoyas	101	89.4	-11.6	1	98%	25	37	1	1
3	Old Dominion University Monarchs	143	162.0	+19.0	3	35%	82	85	4	3
4	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	155	172.4	+17.4	4	39%	70	80	3	4
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	171	181.8	+10.8	6	40%	66	69	10	6
6	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	172	188.7	+16.7	7	45%	62	78	6	7
7	Columbia University Lions	175	205.1	+30.1	10	35%	71	88	5	10
8	George Washington University Revolutionaries	183	195.8	+12.8	9	63%	46	74	8	9
9	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	193.8	188.9	-4.9	8	88%	19	45	7	8
10	Fordham University Rams	197.2	181.5	-15.7	5	>99%	4	28	9	5
11	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	316	289.5	-26.5	11	80%	58	12	13	11
12	Princeton University Tigers	346	326.6	-19.4	12	65%	61	13	14	12
13	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	366	362.1	-3.9	14	43%	70	34	15	15
14	SUNY Stony Brook Seawolves	391	373.0	-18.0	15	49%	66	9	12	14
15	University of Maryland Terps	397	352.6	-44.4	13	>99%	8	0	11	13

NWISA Ranking Regatta #2 (Last Chance Qualifier) ISSA · 03/28/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 30.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.9 · winner's chance 93% · this far off in 61% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Bainbridge High School Spartans	42	63.8	+21.8	1	93%	54	99	1	1
2	Olympia High School Bears	109	150.0	+41.0	5	10%	95	95	5	5
3	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	126	111.3	-14.7	2	75%	37	40	2	2
4	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	130	145.2	+15.2	4	46%	63	77	4	4
5	Capital High School Cougars	140	184.8	+44.8	7	20%	84	93	9	7
6	Gig Harbor High School Tides	150	179.2	+29.2	6	38%	67	81	7	6
7	Sehome High School Mariners	154	216.6	+62.6	11	14%	89	97	14	13
8	Ballard High School Beavers	159	132.4	-26.6	3	94%	7	25	3	3
9	Anacortes High School Seahawks	198	194.7	-3.3	9	49%	57	47	8	9
10	Port Angeles High School Roughriders	203	211.2	+8.2	10	42%	64	58	18	10
11	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	211	231.2	+20.2	15	29%	75	71	13	14
12	Newport High School (WA) Newport (WA)	232	248.0	+16.0	17	33%	70	57	11	15
13	Lakeside School Lions	233	186.6	-46.4	8	85%	18	11	6	8
14	North Kitsap High School Dogfish	237	222.6	-14.4	12	69%	37	27	15	12
15	Orcas High School Vikings	257	245.0	-12.0	16	56%	48	33	12	17
16	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	266	248.5	-17.5	18	68%	39	22	17	18
17	Ingraham High School Rams	274	224.3	-49.7	13	93%	12	7	10	11
18	The Downtown School Sockeye Salmon	330	224.7	-105.3	14	>99%	5	0	16	16

Silver Ranking Regatta #2 ISSA · 03/28/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 27.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.0 · winner's chance 3% · this far off in 71% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Cardinals 2	39	118.4	+79.4	7	3%	98	100	5	5
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans 1	41	61.4	+20.4	2	52%	60	95	1	1
3	Spring Street International School Green	80	60.1	-19.9	1	71%	37	28	14	2
4	Eagles	94	118.4	+24.4	7	19%	84	75	5	5
5	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	96	111.6	+15.6	5	19%	84	76	2	15
6	Techsters 1	99	118.4	+19.4	7	29%	74	71	5	5
7	Cardinals 1	102	118.4	+16.4	7	35%	68	68	5	5
8	Friday Harbor High School Wolverines	103	111.5	+8.5	4	46%	58	64	4	3
9	Cardinals 3	106	118.4	+12.4	7	45%	58	65	5	5
10	Bruins	107	118.4	+11.4	7	51%	52	63	5	5
11	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	119	115.9	-3.1	6	61%	42	45	3	14
12	Capital High School Cougars	122	111.3	-10.7	3	76%	28	35	16	4
13	Bainbridge High School Spartans 2	131	122.8	-8.2	16	68%	36	38	17	17
14	Squalicum High School Storm	136	166.5	+30.5	18	26%	78	82	18	18
15	Peninsula High School Seahawks	150	125.2	-24.8	17	80%	24	19	15	16
16	Techsters 2	156	118.4	-37.6	7	90%	14	10	5	5
17	Cubs 1	183	118.4	-64.6	7	95%	8	1	5	5
18	Cubs 2	200	118.4	-81.6	7	>99%	2	0	5	5

MCSA Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/03/2026 · 2 teams · site model off 5.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 5.2 · winner's chance 69% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Michigan Wolverines	18	23.0	+5.0	1	69%	65	99	1	1
2	Northwestern University Wildcats	30	25.0	-5.0	2	>99%	27	1	2	2

Charley Dole PCCSC Women's Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 14.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.1 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 35% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	49	52.6	+3.6	1	90%	55	78	1	1
2	Western Washington University Vikings	87	105.4	+18.4	4	6%	97	90	5	4
3	University of Hawaii Rainbows	88	82.9	-5.1	3	83%	36	41	2	3
4	University of Washington Huskies	90	138.5	+48.5	7	6%	96	100	6	7
5	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	109	82.2	-26.8	2	99%	4	6	3	2
6	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	113	111.8	-1.2	5	85%	23	50	4	5
7	University of California at Berkeley Bears	147	141.0	-6.0	8	49%	61	37	9	8
8	University of Southern California Trojans	152	131.4	-20.6	6	87%	22	11	7	6
9	University of California at San Diego Tritons	154	155.9	+1.9	9	67%	47	51	8	9
10	San Diego State University Aztecs	158	167.6	+9.6	10	72%	44	67	10	10
11	University of Victoria Vikes	188	177.2	-10.8	11	93%	29	22	11	11
12	Arizona State University Sun Devils	234	213.5	-20.5	12	>99%	45	0	12	12

MCSA Open Fleet Race Qualifier ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 11 teams · site model off 21.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.9 · winner's chance 38% · this far off in 4% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Wisconsin Badgers	55	71.5	+16.5	1	38%	81	96	9	3
2	University of Michigan Wolverines	62	80.8	+18.8	4	40%	72	97	4	4
3	Northwestern University Wildcats	76	74.1	-1.9	2	79%	33	57	3	2
4	University of Notre Dame Fighting Irish	83	78.5	-4.5	3	97%	16	46	1	1
5	Hope College Flying Dutchmen	115	136.6	+21.6	6	35%	82	90	6	6
6	Purdue University Boilermakers	134	177.7	+43.7	9	9%	94	96	5	9
7	University of Minnesota Gophers	158	157.6	-0.4	8	45%	67	47	7	7
8	University of Chicago Maroons	162	155.0	-7.0	7	78%	35	29	8	8
9	Marquette University Golden Eagles	191	202.1	+11.1	11	12%	92	69	11	11
10	University of Saint Thomas Tommies	200	131.6	-68.4	5	>99%	1	0	2	5
11	Washington University Bears	229	186.5	-42.5	10	>99%	12	1	10	10

SAISA Women's Champs: Ann Boyd Trophy ICSA · 04/11/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 19.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.7 · winner's chance 91% · this far off in 70% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	34.4	53.4	+19.0	1	91%	55	100	1	1
2	University of South Florida Bulls	60	79.7	+19.7	2	68%	62	97	3	2
3	Rollins College Tars	68	96.6	+28.6	3	56%	63	99	2	3
4	Jacksonville University Fins	95	98.5	+3.5	4	88%	31	67	5	4
5	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	150	124.9	-25.1	5	84%	48	10	6	5
6	University of Florida Gators	159	185.6	+26.6	8	14%	92	88	10	7
7	University of Miami Hurricanes	170	180.6	+10.6	7	50%	66	72	9	8
8	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	194	158.9	-35.1	6	93%	12	6	4	6
9	Florida State University Seminoles	198	209.6	+11.6	10	43%	69	72	12	11
10	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	216	216.9	+0.9	11	60%	53	44	11	10
11	Duke University Blue Devils	238	206.3	-31.7	9	98%	13	4	7	9
12	University of Tennessee Volunteers	283	261.0	-22.0	12	>99%	46	0	8	12

MISSA NE Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 7 teams · site model off 13.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.7 · winner's chance 74% · this far off in 90% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	47	58.2	+11.2	1	74%	63	94	1	1
2	Birmingham Public Schools Varsity	60	71.3	+11.3	2	74%	52	89	2	2
3	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	88	94.3	+6.3	4	43%	71	68	7	4
4	Mercy/University of Detroit Jesuit MUDJ	97	92.4	-4.6	3	80%	36	36	3	3
5	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	106	109.9	+3.9	5	60%	57	62	5	5
6	Troy High School Troy	118.5	125.1	+6.6	7	54%	63	63	6	7
7	Grosse Pointe North High School Norsemen	172	120.7	-51.3	6	>99%	18	0	4	6

MISSA NW Mallory Prequalifier @ Sheboygan ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 15.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 26.2 · winner's chance <1% · this far off in 15% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Blake School Bears	39	85.1	+46.1	6	<1%	100	100	3	5
2	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	41	41.3	+0.3	1	96%	11	62	2	1
3	Minnetonka High School Skippers	63	69.2	+6.2	3	51%	64	77	5	3
4	Wayzata High School Navy	64	83.8	+19.8	5	33%	75	93	7	6
5	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	69	74.0	+5.0	4	82%	28	70	4	4
6	Madison West Varsity	85	56.9	-28.1	2	>99%	1	3	1	2
7	Pewaukee High School Pirates	114	109.7	-4.3	8	42%	69	33	6	8
8	Benilde St Margarets Red	116	105.4	-10.6	7	82%	32	17	10	7
9	Raiders	140	127.6	-12.4	10	58%	55	18	8	9
10	Homestead High School (WI) Highlanders	149	127.1	-21.9	9	>99%	21	1	9	10

MISSA SE Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 2 teams · site model off 1.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 1.6 · winner's chance 97% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Rocky River High School Varsity	6	7.0	+1.0	1	97%	52	84	1	1
2	Culver Academies Eagles	12	11.0	-1.0	2	>99%	43	16	2	2

SAISA Doublehanded Championship/Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/11/2026 · 16 teams · site model off 15.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 36.9 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 63% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	81	101.3	+20.3	3	12%	94	87	6	3
2	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	82	78.5	-3.5	1	69%	41	52	1	1
3	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	90	104.1	+14.1	4	34%	72	82	5	4
4	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School	93	111.5	+18.5	6	39%	68	85	8	6
5	St. Petersburg High School Green Devils	100	143.7	+43.7	9	13%	90	96	10	9
6	Greene School Dolphins	103	105.2	+2.2	5	71%	34	60	3	5
7	MAST Academy Makos	110	95.6	-14.4	2	96%	7	26	4	2
8	Antilles School Hurricanes One	144	119.2	-24.8	7	85%	23	16	9	7
9	Immaculata La Salle High School Royal Lions	151	128.4	-22.6	8	94%	14	14	7	8
10	John T. Hoggard High School Vikings Varsity	171	171.9	+0.9	10	66%	51	48	2	10
11	Porter-Gaud School Cyclones	192	195.7	+3.7	11	50%	63	51	11	11
12	Wando High School Warriors	199	212.5	+13.5	12	38%	70	68	16	12
13	Academic Magnet High School Raptors A	214	218.6	+4.6	15	46%	62	52	14	15
14	Episcopal School of Jacksonville ESJ	220	217.2	-2.8	14	67%	42	37	12	14
15	James Island Charter High School Varsity	240	228.7	-11.3	16	68%	44	19	15	16
16	New Bern High School Bears	259	215.8	-43.2	13	>99%	8	0	13	13

America Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 24.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 72.1 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 86% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	112	161.7	+49.7	3	10%	95	98	5	3
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	125	122.5	-2.5	1	81%	31	56	2	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	138	139.6	+1.6	2	82%	30	62	1	2
4	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	146	177.4	+31.4	5	56%	58	91	7	5
5	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	187	166.2	-20.8	4	86%	23	31	6	4
6	George Washington University Revolutionaries	189	251.8	+62.8	9	17%	89	98	14	9
7	Cornell University Big Red	212	232.5	+20.5	7	57%	54	76	8	7
8	Fordham University Rams	215	225.8	+10.8	6	79%	29	68	10	6
9	Old Dominion University Monarchs	243	241.5	-1.5	8	84%	25	50	12	8
10	Virginia Tech Hokies	305	343.7	+38.7	15	8%	94	84	4	14
11	Christopher Newport University Captains	310	296.9	-13.1	10	59%	49	32	16	10
12	Princeton University Tigers	327	306.0	-21.0	11	62%	45	25	11	12
13	Columbia University Lions	338	330.7	-7.3	13	51%	57	37	9	13
14	U. S. Merchant Marine Academy Mariners	356	348.8	-7.2	16	45%	61	37	17	16
15	Penn State University Nittany Lions	358	318.0	-40.0	12	88%	17	8	3	11
16	Webb Institute Clippers	373	335.0	-38.0	14	87%	19	10	13	15
17	SUNY Maritime College Privateers	379	360.4	-18.6	17	96%	18	19	15	17
18	William and Mary Tribe	480	429.5	-50.5	18	>99%	44	0	18	18

NEISA Open FR Champs - Coast Guard Alumni Bowl ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 15.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 32.5 · winner's chance 67% · this far off in 92% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	98	83.7	-14.3	1	67%	67	34	1	1
2	Brown University Bears	103	108.0	+5.0	2	52%	65	67	3	2
3	Roger Williams University Hawks	106	132.4	+26.4	5	32%	76	91	5	5
4	Yale University Bulldogs	136	126.0	-10.0	3	62%	48	41	2	3
5	Boston College Eagles	138	130.5	-7.5	4	74%	34	40	4	4
6	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	165	155.6	-9.4	6	51%	57	39	11	7
7	Connecticut College Camels	169	213.9	+44.9	13	6%	96	94	17	13
8	Tufts University Jumbos	178	156.9	-21.1	7	80%	27	22	6	6
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	180	183.7	+3.7	8	59%	48	55	8	8
10	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	190	184.2	-5.8	9	69%	37	43	16	9
11	Boston University Terriers	208	206.4	-1.6	11	56%	50	46	13	10
12	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	213	212.1	-0.9	12	63%	43	45	14	12
13	Dartmouth College Big Green	229	205.8	-23.2	10	80%	26	19	7	11
14	Maine Maritime Academy Mariners	234	279.1	+45.1	17	10%	93	94	10	17
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	243	237.4	-5.6	15	79%	31	36	15	15
16	Northeastern University Huskies	256	232.5	-23.5	14	96%	9	15	9	14
17	Salve Regina University Seahawks	257	266.6	+9.6	16	91%	21	58	12	16
18	University of New Hampshire Wildcats	318	305.3	-12.7	18	>99%	35	19	18	18

NEISA Women's Fleet Race Championship -Reed Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 15 teams · site model off 20.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 26.8 · winner's chance 16% · this far off in 8% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yale University Bulldogs	99	136.3	+37.3	3	16%	92	97	5	3
2	Brown University Bears	105	117.5	+12.5	1	68%	44	79	1	1
3	Harvard University Crimson	132	124.9	-7.1	2	73%	36	45	3	2
4	Roger Williams University Hawks	145	163.3	+18.3	5	30%	76	80	8	6
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	181	184.9	+3.9	9	19%	85	56	11	9
6	Northeastern University Huskies	183	216.3	+33.3	11	3%	98	91	9	11
7	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	185	193.2	+8.2	10	27%	79	63	7	10
7	Tufts University Jumbos	185	171.4	-13.6	8	59%	49	29	6	7
9	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	188	168.7	-19.3	7	86%	20	24	4	8
10	Dartmouth College Big Green	194	152.2	-41.8	4	98%	4	8	2	4
11	Boston College Eagles	212	168.2	-43.8	6	98%	4	4	10	5
12	University of Rhode Island Rams	248	263.6	+15.6	13	26%	82	69	14	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	255	229.0	-26.0	12	95%	12	13	12	12
14	Boston University Terriers	283	302.4	+19.4	15	37%	76	74	15	15
15	University of Vermont Catamounts	287	288.0	+1.0	14	>99%	14	41	13	14

PCCSC Mark Healy Open Fleet Race Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 17 teams · site model off 27.4 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 38.6 · winner's chance 67% · this far off in 12% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	94	100.5	+6.5	1	67%	66	73	1	1
2	San Diego State University Aztecs	108	126.1	+18.1	2	58%	62	85	3	2
3	University of Southern California Trojans	136	176.8	+40.8	5	12%	92	96	7	5
4	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	181.4	142.7	-38.7	3	79%	33	12	5	3
5	Western Washington University Vikings	195	186.3	-8.7	6	39%	71	45	2	6
6	California Poly Maritime Academy Keelhaulers	196.3	196.5	+0.2	7	53%	58	52	4	7
7	University of California at Santa Cruz Banana Slugs	247	253.2	+6.2	8	14%	90	59	9	9
8	University of Washington Huskies	258	255.5	-2.5	9	34%	77	47	11	10
9	University of Hawaii Rainbows	263.5	149.5	-114.0	4	>99%	0	0	6	4
10	University of California at Los Angeles Bruins	267	307.5	+40.5	11	26%	80	83	10	11
11	University of California at San Diego Tritons	269	317.7	+48.7	13	28%	80	94	12	13
12	University of California at Irvine Anteaters	292	261.3	-30.7	10	93%	10	17	8	8
13	Arizona State University Sun Devils	300	321.0	+21.0	14	66%	46	74	13	14
14	University of California at Berkeley Bears	330	313.2	-16.8	12	90%	18	28	16	12
15	Cal Poly University S.L.O. Mustangs	359	410.6	+51.6	17	12%	92	94	14	17
16	University of Oregon Ducks	388	368.2	-19.8	15	93%	17	15	15	15
17	California State University Channel Islands Dolphins	399	397.5	-1.5	16	>99%	15	35	17	16

SAISA Coed Champs: Richard Tillman Trophy ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 18.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.7 · winner's chance 88% · this far off in 67% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	College of Charleston Cougars	74	72.0	-2.0	1	88%	56	57	2	1
2	Jacksonville University Fins	105	107.3	+2.3	2	56%	68	66	1	2
3	University of Miami Hurricanes	119	125.0	+6.0	3	49%	64	68	3	3
4	Florida State University Seminoles	122	159.9	+37.9	6	17%	89	96	9	6
5	Eckerd College Tritons	151	128.8	-22.2	4	84%	24	20	11	4
6	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	157	145.9	-11.1	5	77%	32	37	7	5
7	Clemson University Tigers	169	193.0	+24.0	9	26%	81	85	6	9
8	University of South Florida Bulls	196	165.4	-30.6	7	89%	20	11	5	7
9	Rollins College Tars	197	182.9	-14.1	8	90%	22	31	8	8
10	Auburn University Tigers	198	235.3	+37.3	10	53%	66	96	4	10
11	Palm Beach Atlantic University Sailfish	240	244.2	+4.2	11	69%	47	56	10	11
12	University of Central Florida Knights	274	259.7	-14.3	12	90%	33	28	12	12
13	Embry-Riddle University Eagles	305	344.3	+39.3	15	13%	93	93	14	15
14	Gamecocks	330	347.2	+17.2	16	37%	70	64	13	16
15	Florida Institute of Technology Panthers	335	329.3	-5.7	14	80%	30	34	16	14
16	Duke University Blue Devils	350	325.6	-24.4	13	90%	16	16	15	13
17	University of North Carolina at Wilmington Seahawks	390	358.3	-31.7	17	85%	31	2	18	17
18	Davidson College Wildcats	395	379.9	-15.1	18	>99%	28	14	17	18

SEISA Open Fleet Race Conference Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 8 teams · site model off 25.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 42.5 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 48% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	25	38.7	+13.7	1	>99%	50	100	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	89	105.1	+16.1	2	51%	74	83	2	2
3	Louisiana Tech University Bulldogs	96	146.4	+50.4	5	19%	87	97	4	5
4	Rice University Owls	129	133.6	+4.6	4	57%	57	61	5	4
5	University of Texas Longhorns	132	147.8	+15.8	6	57%	55	75	7	6
6	Texas A&M University at Galveston Sea Aggies	158	114.6	-43.4	3	99%	5	4	3	3
7	Texas A&M University at Corpus Christi Islanders	227	177.7	-49.3	7	95%	35	0	6	7
8	University of Kansas Jayhawks	232	224.1	-7.9	8	>99%	46	18	8	8

SEISA Women’s Fleet Race Conference Championship ICSA · 04/18/2026 · 3 teams · site model off 3.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 5.6 · winner's chance 99% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tulane University Green Wave	9	10.7	+1.7	1	99%	50	89	1	1
2	Texas A&M University Aggies	21	24.5	+3.5	2	71%	64	83	2	2
3	University of Texas Longhorns	33	27.8	-5.2	3	>99%	32	2	3	3

2026 Silver PCC's ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 28 teams · site model off 38.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 63.4 · winner's chance 45% · this far off in 79% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	60	114.7	+54.7	1	45%	77	98	4	1
2	Redwood Giants 1	104	162.5	+58.5	4	26%	82	97	2	3
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	154	130.0	-24.0	2	73%	36	41	3	4
4	Stevenson School Pirates 1	155	147.1	-7.9	3	83%	25	51	1	2
5	The Urban School Blues	197	235.7	+38.7	6	20%	85	85	13	5
6	St. Joseph Notre Dame HS - Alameda, CA St Joseph Notre Dame	209	282.9	+73.9	15	8%	94	94	19	15
7	Monterey High School Toreadores	219	297.4	+78.4	18	6%	95	96	21	18
8	Stevenson School Pirates 2	224	242.0	+18.0	9	42%	62	68	5	7
9	Bishop's School Knights	229	229.8	+0.8	5	60%	44	54	14	8
10	Oakland Technical High School Oakland Tech	244	241.5	-2.5	8	58%	46	52	11	9
11	Blue and Gold Varsity	245	240.3	-4.7	7	65%	38	49	8	6
12	Archbishop Riordan Crusaders	265	274.4	+9.4	13	47%	57	58	20	13
13	Palos Verdes High School Sea Kings	272	249.9	-22.1	10	74%	30	31	12	10
14	Redondo Union High School Sea Hawks	286	262.6	-23.4	12	69%	35	33	9	12
15	Carmel High School Padres	289	296.7	+7.7	17	50%	53	55	17	16
16	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	297	254.0	-43.0	11	84%	19	22	7	11
17	Berkeley High School Yellowjackets	307	281.1	-25.9	14	76%	27	29	6	14
18	Saint Mary's (Berkeley, CA) Varsity	314	348.3	+34.3	20	38%	66	71	15	20
19	Parker	318.7	360.6	+41.9	21	38%	65	74	10	21
20	Marin Catholic Wildcats	341	414.5	+73.5	26	14%	88	90	28	27
21	Tamalpais High School Red Tailed Hawks	392	377.8	-14.2	22	41%	65	29	26	22
22	Palos Verdes Peninsula High School Panthers	399	388.3	-10.7	23	41%	64	33	24	23
23	Design Tech High School Dragons	404	415.8	+11.8	27	32%	73	52	22	25
24	Palo Alto High Vikings	416	435.0	+19.0	28	28%	76	57	25	28
25	Alameda High School Hornets	418	332.4	-85.6	19	95%	7	3	18	19
26	The International School of San Francisco Jaguars	451	405.4	-45.6	24	77%	30	9	23	24
27	Redwood Giants 2	458	289.4	-168.6	16	>99%	0	0	16	17
28	South High School Spartans	474	410.2	-63.8	25	>99%	7	5	27	26

MDISA Fleet Qualifier Spring 2026 ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 22.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.8 · winner's chance >99% · this far off in 47% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	51	38.2	-12.8	1	>99%	50	15	1	1
2	Key School Zags	86	103.8	+17.8	2	61%	70	88	3	2
3	Severna Park Falcons	110	143.3	+33.3	5	24%	82	92	6	6
4	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	119	131.4	+12.4	3	59%	52	78	5	3
5	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	131	156.1	+25.1	7	31%	76	90	8	7
6	Gunston Herons	141	145.6	+4.6	6	68%	41	63	4	5
7	Leonardtown High School Raiders	154	137.1	-16.9	4	87%	18	28	2	4
8	Bishop O'Connell High School Knights	162	193.3	+31.3	10	26%	79	88	7	10
9	Kent Island High School Buccaneers	211	172.0	-39.0	8	78%	30	4	13	8
10	Seahawks	213.9	245.3	+31.4	14	16%	87	74	11	13
11	Great Mills High School Hornets	218	221.7	+3.7	12	37%	71	49	10	12
12	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	229	184.6	-44.4	9	89%	15	8	9	9
13	Broadneck High School Bruins	239	236.8	-2.2	13	69%	48	37	14	14
14	The Tome School Titans	244	200.8	-43.2	11	>99%	1	1	12	11

MISSA SW Mallory Pre-Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 10 teams · site model off 5.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.2 · winner's chance 45% · this far off in 95% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	New Trier HS Trevian	28	41.9	+13.9	1	45%	77	98	3	1
2	Lake Forest High School Scouts	41	42.0	+1.0	2	75%	43	64	2	2
3	Jones College Prep Eagles	57	48.3	-8.7	3	93%	29	25	1	3
4	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	75	78.3	+3.3	4	37%	78	61	8	4
5	Loyola Academy Ramblers	83	82.9	-0.1	5	44%	67	51	5	5
6	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	89	86.3	-2.7	7	54%	56	39	7	7
7	Whitney Young Dolphins	90	91.0	+1.0	8	59%	51	50	9	8
8	Latin School of Chicago Romans	95	84.7	-10.3	6	88%	18	19	4	6
9	Glenbrook South High School Titans	110	109.9	-0.1	10	47%	67	44	10	10
10	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	114	104.6	-9.4	9	>99%	14	16	6	9

NYISA-SE Ladder Rung Fleet Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 9 teams · site model off 14.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 24.1 · winner's chance 74% · this far off in 20% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Stony Brook School Bears	23	33.7	+10.7	1	74%	63	99	1	1
2	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	45	62.6	+17.6	3	14%	92	97	3	3
3	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	56	74.4	+18.4	4	25%	86	96	5	4
4	Rye High School Garnets One	57	42.0	-15.0	2	99%	2	16	2	2
5	St. John the Baptist Cougars	85	91.1	+6.1	6	38%	73	66	9	6
6	Mattituck High School Tuckers	87	83.9	-3.1	5	81%	30	42	4	5
7	Kellenberg Memorial High School Kellenberg Memorial	106	117.4	+11.4	9	25%	82	72	8	9
8	Pelham Memorial High School Pelicans	121	103.3	-17.7	7	83%	29	8	6	7
9	Stuyvesant High School Peglegs	144	111.6	-32.4	8	>99%	14	0	7	8

SEISA Fleet Racing Champs and Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 04/18/2026 · 7 teams · site model off 5.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 7.9 · winner's chance 90% · this far off in 71% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays	22	21.9	-0.1	1	90%	55	61	1	1
2	Clear Falls High School Knights	28	38.6	+10.6	2	57%	67	89	3	4
3	The Willow School Willow Lions	39	48.2	+9.2	4	40%	73	89	2	3
4	Flour Bluff High School Hornets	47	43.1	-3.9	3	91%	19	30	4	2
5	Saint Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws	64	53.7	-10.3	5	82%	39	5	5	5
6	Ursuline Academy Lions	67	65.4	-1.6	7	55%	65	33	7	7
7	Ben Franklin High School Falcons	69	65.2	-3.8	6	>99%	21	21	6	6

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Bristol, RI ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 6.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 9.0 · winner's chance 49% · this far off in 34% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	St. George's School Dragons	13	15.1	+2.1	1	49%	75	76	1	1
2	Greenwich High School Cardinals	14	17.0	+3.0	2	66%	49	78	3	2
3	Greenwich Academy Gators	20	19.4	-0.6	3	82%	35	56	2	3
4	Darien High School Blue Wave	34	52.2	+18.2	11	5%	97	94	7	8
5	Fairfield Ludlowe High School Falcons	35	27.6	-7.4	4	88%	20	21	4	4
6	Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars	42	45.3	+3.3	7	33%	75	67	10	10
7	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	43	51.6	+8.6	9	27%	79	82	12	11
8	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	44	44.2	+0.2	6	69%	38	51	9	5
9	North Kingstown High School Skippers	49	47.3	-1.7	8	68%	38	41	6	7
10	The Prout School Crusaders	55	43.8	-11.2	5	89%	15	9	5	6
11	Bishop Stang High Spartans	56	52.2	-3.8	10	83%	26	28	11	12
12	Fairfield Warde High School Warde Sailing	66	52.2	-13.8	11	>99%	9	3	7	8

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Groton, CT ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 20.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 29.9 · winner's chance 9% · this far off in 44% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	44	71.2	+27.2	3	9%	96	96	3	3
2	Brunswick School Bruins	46	40.4	-5.6	1	95%	12	50	1	1
3	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	67	92.6	+25.6	4	18%	88	96	10	4
4	Staples High School Wreckers	69	64.2	-4.8	2	93%	13	50	2	2
5	Marine Science Magnet HS Sharks	73	109.4	+36.4	6	34%	73	95	11	8
6	Branford High School Hornets	106	122.5	+16.5	10	29%	76	73	5	7
7	Guilford High School Grizzlies	122	107.5	-14.5	5	63%	44	25	4	5
8	Wilton High School Warriors	130	110.0	-20.0	7	67%	39	20	6	6
9	Weston High School Trojans	133	146.7	+13.7	12	22%	83	69	12	12
10	Salisbury School Knights	147	120.3	-26.7	8	82%	24	8	7	9
11	The Williams School Blues	151.3	122.3	-29.0	9	94%	12	3	8	10
12	Xavier High School Xavier High Falcons	163	141.1	-21.9	11	>99%	13	6	9	11

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Hyannis, MA ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 11.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 16.9 · winner's chance 41% · this far off in 82% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	19	26.0	+7.0	2	41%	80	91	1	2
2	Milton Academy Mustangs	22	58.8	+36.8	5	5%	97	100	5	5
3	Old Rochester Bulldogs	25	47.7	+22.7	4	32%	79	99	3	4
4	Dartmouth High School Sailing	31	24.0	-7.0	1	98%	3	31	2	1
5	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	46	45.6	-0.4	3	73%	34	53	4	3
6	St. John Paul II School Lions	55	62.6	+7.6	6	37%	69	73	8	6
7	Falmouth High School, MA Clippers	62	63.9	+1.9	7	43%	63	57	11	9
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	65	70.9	+5.9	12	37%	68	65	9	12
9	Boston College High School Eagles	69	65.1	-3.9	8	65%	41	38	13	8
9	The Winsor School Wildcats	69	68.8	-0.2	10	54%	52	48	6	7
11	Nantucket High School Whalers	75	67.5	-7.5	9	81%	24	24	7	10
12	Nauset Regional High School Nauset	92	83.3	-8.7	13	49%	58	18	12	13
13	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	101	70.0	-31.0	11	92%	13	1	10	11
14	Sandwich Middle High School Blue Knights	109	85.9	-23.1	14	>99%	18	0	14	14

2026 NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Portland, ME ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 9 teams · site model off 9.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 10.3 · winner's chance 10% · this far off in 24% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Yarmouth High School Clippers	20	36.5	+16.5	4	10%	95	99	5	4
2	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	22	24.6	+2.6	1	76%	34	70	1	1
3	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	33	37.0	+4.0	5	39%	70	73	4	5
4	Portland High School Bulldogs	38	47.5	+9.5	6	19%	85	84	8	8
5	East Greenwich High School Avengers	42	32.3	-9.7	2	85%	19	14	2	2
6	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	44	50.3	+6.3	9	34%	73	73	9	9
7	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	51	36.1	-14.9	3	95%	9	3	3	3
8	Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets	54	47.9	-6.1	8	79%	30	21	6	6
9	Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	60	47.8	-12.2	7	>99%	10	5	7	7

2026 NESSA O’Day Qualifier - Sharon ISSA · 04/26/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 7.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 14.7 · winner's chance 70% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	32	25.4	-6.6	1	70%	65	31	1	1
2	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	35	34.0	-1.0	2	67%	55	60	2	2
3	Belmont Hill School Varsity	48	42.6	-5.4	3	67%	50	42	3	3
4	Hingham High School Harbormen	54	79.4	+25.4	7	9%	94	94	9	7
4	Sharon High School Eagles	54	58.1	+4.1	4	47%	67	69	4	4
6	Moses Brown School Quakers	65	80.2	+15.2	8	31%	75	81	11	8
6	St. Johns Prep Eagles	65	65.2	+0.2	5	61%	46	56	6	5
8	Pingree School Pegasus	83	76.9	-6.1	6	58%	47	37	5	6
8	Winchester High School Varsity	83	85.7	+2.7	9	40%	66	54	7	11
10	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	97	89.0	-8.0	11	56%	49	27	10	9
10	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	97	95.3	-1.7	13	42%	62	39	12	13
12	Duxbury High School Dragons	99	91.7	-7.3	12	85%	24	23	13	12
13	Wellesley High School Varsity	100	86.3	-13.7	10	>99%	4	11	8	10

2026 PCISA Fleet Racing Championship ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 28.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.6 · winner's chance 51% · this far off in 39% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	93	118.4	+25.4	2	37%	82	94	2	2
1	Point Loma High School Pointers	93	111.7	+18.7	1	51%	75	88	1	1
3	San Marcos High School Royals	133	151.8	+18.8	3	49%	64	81	6	3
4	Cathedral Catholic High School Dons	143	159.4	+16.4	4	65%	48	78	5	4
5	Mira Costa High School Mustangs	212	230.6	+18.6	6	16%	89	70	7	7
6	Corona del Mar High School Sea Kings	229	166.7	-62.3	5	94%	12	4	4	5
7	Newport Harbor High School Sailors	230	241.9	+11.9	8	47%	63	63	8	8
8	Alameda High School Hornets	271	298.4	+27.4	11	13%	91	77	9	11
9	Redwood Giants	276	232.4	-43.6	7	89%	17	11	3	6
10	Parker	313	310.9	-2.1	12	30%	77	45	11	12
11	Dos Pueblos Chargers	315.8	274.7	-41.1	10	81%	25	15	15	10
12	The Bay School of San Francisco Breakers	319	273.7	-45.3	9	93%	12	9	10	9
13	Design Tech High School Dragons	324	377.0	+53.0	17	16%	88	93	18	17
14	Los Alamitos High School Griffins	332	361.9	+29.9	14	46%	62	76	12	14
15	Convent and Stuart Hall High Schools Cubs	348	385.1	+37.1	18	36%	70	81	14	18
16	Mission Bay High School Buccaneer	357	347.7	-9.3	13	88%	17	30	13	13
17	Coronado Islanders Islanders	391	372.4	-18.6	15	84%	25	20	17	16
18	SF University High School Red Devils	400	373.4	-26.6	16	>99%	9	14	16	15

MISSA Mallory Qualifier 2026 ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 32.6 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 60.9 · winner's chance 37% · this far off in 79% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	137	156.7	+19.7	2	37%	82	84	1	1
2	Minnetonka High School Skippers	149	238.0	+89.0	5	5%	97	99	9	5
3	Jones College Prep Eagles	160	155.6	-4.4	1	89%	20	58	3	2
4	New Trier HS Trevian	192	190.1	-1.9	3	83%	30	57	7	3
5	Lake Forest High School Scouts	196	194.6	-1.4	4	83%	24	59	6	4
6	Madison West Varsity	216	272.4	+56.4	6	49%	60	92	2	7
7	Blake School Bears	218	305.9	+87.9	8	37%	71	98	4	8
8	Marquette University High School Hill Toppers	304	311.9	+7.9	9	49%	59	57	8	9
9	Grosse Pointe South High School Blue Devils	314	287.7	-26.3	7	83%	23	28	5	6
10	Wayzata High School Navy	352	328.2	-23.8	10	71%	38	26	13	10
11	Evanston Township HS Wildkits	379	355.2	-23.8	11	60%	49	27	14	11
12	Loyola Academy Ramblers	405	412.9	+7.9	14	28%	78	50	11	14
13	Benilde St Margarets Red	411	422.1	+11.1	16	32%	75	54	15	16
14	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	426	392.7	-33.3	12	75%	32	15	12	12
15	Latin School of Chicago Romans	427	403.1	-23.9	13	76%	30	26	10	13
16	Detroit Country Day School Varsity	489	499.6	+10.6	18	13%	91	49	18	18
17	Traverse City Central TCC Varsity Black	522	420.7	-101.3	15	96%	10	0	17	15
17	Whitney Young Dolphins	522	466.5	-55.5	17	76%	40	5	16	17

SAISA Girls Champs ISSA · 05/02/2026 · 6 teams · site model off 4.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 8.0 · winner's chance 97% · this far off in 98% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	MAST Academy Makos	13	15.6	+2.6	1	97%	52	92	1	1
2	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 1	28	32.0	+4.0	2	56%	71	79	2	2
3	Coral Gables Senior High Cavaliers	39	33.4	-5.6	3	88%	35	27	4	3
4	Carrollton School of the Sacred Heart Carrollton School 2	50	52.9	+2.9	4	58%	62	56	3	4
5	Ashley Hall Panthers	57	57.5	+0.5	5	71%	50	50	6	5
6	St. Vincent's Academy Saints Varsity	71	60.6	-10.4	6	>99%	23	1	5	6

2026 NESSA Fleet Racing Championship(O'Day Trophy) ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 29.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 44.4 · winner's chance 12% · this far off in 68% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Barrington High School Eagles	80	154.8	+74.8	2	12%	94	100	3	2
2	St. George's School Dragons	110	117.4	+7.4	1	81%	29	74	1	1
3	Brunswick School Bruins	117	177.7	+60.7	5	29%	77	97	4	5
4	Greens Farms Academy Dragons	160	190.6	+30.6	7	25%	80	86	9	4
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	162	168.6	+6.6	3	65%	42	65	7	3
6	Greenwich Academy Gators	186	181.3	-4.7	6	59%	46	49	2	6
7	Dartmouth High School Sailing	214	198.6	-15.4	8	53%	52	39	5	9
8	Tabor Academy Seawolves	223	236.9	+13.9	11	25%	80	67	14	11
9	Marblehead High School Fishwagons	228	231.2	+3.2	10	48%	57	51	10	10
10	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	238.7	171.7	-67.0	4	95%	7	5	6	7
11	Milton Academy Mustangs	255	284.5	+29.5	12	24%	80	73	12	13
12	Yarmouth High School Clippers	267	300.7	+33.7	17	18%	86	78	17	17
13	Old Rochester Bulldogs	286	289.6	+3.6	13	39%	67	47	16	15
14	Belmont Hill School Varsity	296	215.5	-80.5	9	96%	6	2	8	8
15	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	298	292.8	-5.2	15	60%	46	37	13	12
16	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	322	308.1	-13.9	18	59%	47	27	18	18
17	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	324	290.6	-33.4	14	89%	16	11	11	16
18	Sharon High School Eagles	337	293.5	-43.5	16	>99%	5	4	15	14

2026 NWISA Fleet Race Championships ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 14 teams · site model off 17.9 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 28.4 · winner's chance 32% · this far off in 76% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Olympia High School Bears	69	91.5	+22.5	2	32%	84	95	4	2
2	Bainbridge High School Spartans	83	81.1	-1.9	1	88%	25	57	1	1
3	Gig Harbor High School Tides	99	141.3	+42.3	5	15%	90	99	7	5
4	Bellarmine Preparatory School Lions	110	123.2	+13.2	3	62%	47	76	5	3
5	Roosevelt High School Rough Riders	127.6	131.6	+4.0	4	70%	39	61	2	4
6	Lakeside School Lions	147	142.3	-4.7	6	67%	41	46	3	6
7	Capital High School Cougars	177	170.6	-6.4	8	41%	66	40	9	8
8	Hood River Valley High School Eagles	185	219.6	+34.6	12	8%	94	86	11	12
9	Central Kitsap High School Cougars	188	150.1	-37.9	7	94%	10	6	6	7
10	Sehome High School Mariners	197	199.8	+2.8	10	54%	55	50	12	10
11	Anacortes High School Seahawks	206	190.7	-15.3	9	80%	26	24	8	9
12	Bellingham High School Bayhawks	212	222.4	+10.4	13	58%	53	61	13	13
13	Orcas High School Vikings	239.8	209.9	-29.9	11	88%	19	10	10	11
14	Oak Harbor High School Wildcats	261	235.8	-25.2	14	>99%	20	7	14	14

MASSA 2026 Fleet Championship & Mallory Qualifier ISSA · 05/09/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 22.5 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.1 · winner's chance 54% · this far off in 33% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	68	80.2	+12.2	1	54%	73	86	1	1
2	Southern Regional High School Rams	99	113.8	+14.8	4	19%	88	81	4	4
3	Christchurch School Seahorses One	100	89.9	-10.1	2	82%	28	40	2	2
4	Key School Zags	121	181.2	+60.2	8	4%	97	98	9	8
5	Norfolk Academy Bulldogs One	122	139.5	+17.5	6	48%	64	81	5	6
6	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	129	106.4	-22.6	3	98%	6	22	3	3
7	The Stony Brook School Bears	135	128.2	-6.8	5	94%	10	46	6	5
8	Sts. Peter & Paul Sabres	174	213.5	+39.5	9	20%	86	92	12	10
9	Mamaroneck High School Tigers	194	231.7	+37.7	12	18%	86	88	14	15
10	Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	217	175.9	-41.1	7	90%	13	6	8	7
11	Severna Park Falcons	239	225.2	-13.8	11	46%	59	31	13	11
12	Leonardtown High School Raiders	243	233.2	-9.8	13	49%	57	31	10	12
13	Kecoughtan High School Warriors	249	240.2	-8.8	15	50%	56	33	16	13
14	Canisius High School Crusaders	255	216.1	-38.9	10	86%	17	7	7	9
15	Archbishop Spalding Cavaliers	260	250.3	-9.7	16	64%	43	29	15	16
16	Rye Country Day School Wildcats	271	288.9	+17.9	18	29%	77	64	17	18
17	Gunston Herons	272	239.5	-32.5	14	95%	9	10	11	14
18	Ridge High School Red Devils	277	266.2	-10.8	17	>99%	10	28	18	17

Women's Eastern National Semis ICSA · 05/15/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 18.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 39.7 · winner's chance 73% · this far off in 33% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	81	81.4	+0.4	1	73%	64	63	1	1
2	Harvard University Crimson	98	114.4	+16.4	2	37%	76	83	3	2
3	College of Charleston Cougars	117	123.6	+6.6	4	47%	64	66	2	3
4	Dartmouth College Big Green	121	116.7	-4.3	3	75%	34	51	4	4
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	137	139.6	+2.6	5	61%	49	58	7	5
6	Tufts University Jumbos	138	154.5	+16.5	6	55%	55	79	6	6
7	Boston College Eagles	157	166.8	+9.8	7	53%	55	67	13	7
8	Jacksonville University Fins	173	233.6	+60.6	15	4%	97	98	11	15
9	Fordham University Rams	205	203.0	-2.0	10	36%	70	45	14	11
9	University of Rhode Island Rams	205	245.5	+40.5	16	5%	96	90	17	16
11	Connecticut College Camels	210	219.9	+9.9	12	38%	68	62	16	13
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	218	211.1	-6.9	11	63%	43	38	10	12
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	220	188.4	-31.6	9	93%	10	14	5	9
14	Old Dominion University Monarchs	221	176.9	-44.1	8	98%	3	6	9	8
15	Columbia University Lions	243	229.4	-13.6	14	83%	24	25	12	14
16	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	277	226.3	-50.7	13	96%	10	2	8	10
17	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	289	282.5	-6.5	17	75%	48	34	15	17
18	University of Vermont Catamounts	312	306.6	-5.4	18	>99%	33	30	18	18

Women's Western National Semis ICSA · 05/15/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 22.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 40.1 · winner's chance 6% · this far off in 43% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	106	135.4	+29.4	4	6%	97	91	9	4
2	Yale University Bulldogs	107	100.0	-7.0	1	75%	39	46	3	1
3	Cornell University Big Red	109	141.7	+32.7	5	29%	79	94	7	5
4	Brown University Bears	116	108.2	-7.8	2	89%	16	45	2	2
5	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	155	193.0	+38.0	9	11%	92	90	13	10
6	Georgetown University Hoyas	156	166.0	+10.0	6	47%	60	63	1	6
7	George Washington University Revolutionaries	162	214.1	+52.1	13	8%	94	97	14	15
8	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	164	168.2	+4.2	7	70%	37	58	11	7
9	Tulane University Green Wave	183	130.6	-52.4	3	96%	5	7	4	3
10	Northeastern University Huskies	186	190.0	+4.0	8	62%	44	56	12	8
11	University of Hawaii Rainbows	189	210.1	+21.1	12	46%	59	76	5	9
12	University of South Florida Bulls	206	203.4	-2.6	10	67%	39	45	8	11
13	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	217	226.0	+9.0	15	47%	58	60	15	16
14	Rollins College Tars	220	215.1	-4.9	14	77%	29	39	6	13
15	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	241	206.2	-34.8	11	92%	13	10	17	14
16	Boston University Terriers	298	291.4	-6.6	18	15%	89	29	18	18
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	299	288.7	-10.3	17	55%	65	24	16	17
18	Western Washington University Vikings	307	231.8	-75.2	16	>99%	1	0	10	12

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy GREEN) ISSA · 05/16/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 11.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 23.9 · winner's chance 55% · this far off in >99% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	33	38.8	+5.8	1	55%	73	79	1	1
2	Old Rochester Bulldogs	44	50.3	+6.3	3	48%	66	78	4	2
3	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	46	50.0	+4.0	2	72%	40	70	2	3
4	Hingham High School Harborwomen	53	62.4	+9.4	4	63%	50	80	6	4
5	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	54	84.8	+30.8	6	28%	79	98	8	6
6	St. George's School Dragons	60	74.6	+14.6	5	69%	40	84	3	5
7	Wilton High School Warriors	88	91.4	+3.4	7	49%	58	54	11	8
8	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	94	92.9	-1.1	8	59%	49	45	5	7
9	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	109	104.0	-5.0	10	44%	62	34	9	11
10	Greenwich High School Cardinals	117	106.0	-11.0	12	57%	51	18	12	12
11	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	127	105.9	-21.1	11	75%	34	4	10	9
12	Staples High School Wreckers	134	100.4	-33.6	9	93%	13	1	7	10
13	Lincoln School Lynxes	137	130.6	-6.4	13	>99%	30	22	13	13

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy RED) ISSA · 05/16/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 13.0 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 20.9 · winner's chance 84% · this far off in 62% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Greenwich Academy Gators	19	28.3	+9.3	1	84%	58	96	1	1
2	Tabor Academy Seawolves	35	42.5	+7.5	2	77%	54	88	2	2
3	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	53	59.0	+6.0	3	54%	64	75	6	3
4	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	62	77.8	+15.8	5	25%	83	91	4	5
5	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	76	107.7	+31.7	12	3%	98	98	11	12
6	The Winsor School Wildcats	78	73.9	-4.1	4	67%	40	41	3	4
7	North Kingstown High School Skippers	84	87.8	+3.8	7	48%	59	59	7	7
8	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	90	93.5	+3.5	9	48%	58	55	12	11
9	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	98	94.7	-3.3	10	58%	49	38	10	9
9	Branford High School Hornets	98	89.8	-8.2	8	68%	38	28	9	8
11	Portland High School Bulldogs	106	80.7	-25.3	6	97%	6	6	5	6
12	Beverly High School Panthers	138	100.5	-37.5	11	>99%	12	0	8	10

Women's Fleet Race National Championhips ICSA · 05/17/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 26.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 32.0 · winner's chance 72% · this far off in 43% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Stanford University Cardinal	113	118.6	+5.6	1	72%	64	69	1	1
2	Yale University Bulldogs	128	165.5	+37.5	2	30%	81	93	4	2
3	Harvard University Crimson	161	181.1	+20.1	4	30%	77	78	6	4
4	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	164	219.8	+55.8	11	11%	92	96	12	9
5	Cornell University Big Red	171	191.6	+20.6	6	41%	65	77	8	7
6	College of Charleston Cougars	190	198.4	+8.4	8	45%	60	62	3	6
7	Tulane University Green Wave	208	218.8	+10.8	9	32%	72	63	9	10
8	Brown University Bears	214	173.2	-40.8	3	89%	14	10	5	3
9	Georgetown University Hoyas	226	186.5	-39.5	5	84%	20	12	2	5
10	Roger Williams University Hawks	231	219.7	-11.3	10	61%	44	37	10	11
11	Tufts University Jumbos	236	240.0	+4.0	12	50%	56	54	11	12
12	Dartmouth College Big Green	247	193.3	-53.7	7	94%	8	6	7	8
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	247	312.3	+65.3	16	4%	97	97	16	16
14	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	258	264.7	+6.7	14	73%	38	58	14	14
15	Boston College Eagles	276	246.9	-29.1	13	96%	8	15	15	13
16	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	316	291.7	-24.3	15	86%	24	16	17	15
17	Jacksonville University Fins	350.1	338.7	-11.4	17	63%	54	26	13	17
18	University of Rhode Island Rams	368	343.2	-24.8	18	>99%	22	11	18	18

NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy GOLD) ISSA · 05/17/2026 · 12 teams · site model off 11.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 21.9 · winner's chance 61% · this far off in 95% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Greenwich Academy Gators	46	52.2	+6.2	1	61%	70	77	1	1
2	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	50	70.5	+20.5	3	43%	70	93	2	3
3	Tabor Academy Seawolves	73	68.9	-4.1	2	73%	39	46	3	2
4	Old Rochester Bulldogs	80	89.2	+9.2	5	46%	64	76	7	4
5	Greenwich Country Day School Tigers	100	105.5	+5.5	6	30%	77	63	9	7
6	Falmouth High School (ME) Navigators	102	88.7	-13.3	4	80%	27	25	4	5
7	Hingham High School Harborwomen	104	106.3	+2.3	7	60%	47	56	10	6
8	Cape Cod Academy Seahawks	109	125.5	+16.5	9	39%	70	84	8	9
9	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	132	131.2	-0.8	11	48%	60	41	11	11
9	St. George's School Dragons	132	120.6	-11.4	8	67%	40	23	6	10
11	Mt. Desert Island HS Varsity	159	163.2	+4.2	12	22%	84	51	12	12
12	The Winsor School Wildcats	166	126.1	-39.9	10	>99%	3	0	5	8

NESSA Girls Championship(Herreshoff Trophy SILVER) ISSA · 05/17/2026 · 13 teams · site model off 14.8 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 17.1 · winner's chance 13% · this far off in 41% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Boston Latin School Wolfpack	28	52.5	+24.5	6	10%	95	97	10	5
1	Wilton High School Warriors	28	49.1	+21.1	2	13%	93	96	9	7
3	North Kingstown High School Skippers	32	49.8	+17.8	4	35%	70	93	4	4
4	Barnstable HS Red Hawks	37	52.6	+15.6	7	35%	70	92	3	3
5	Sacred Heart Greenwich Tigers	48	57.5	+9.5	9	32%	73	78	12	11
6	Portland High School Bulldogs	50	44.3	-5.7	1	74%	30	38	2	2
7	Branford High School Hornets	55	51.9	-3.1	5	65%	39	41	5	6
8	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	62	49.7	-12.3	3	78%	26	19	1	1
9	Staples High School Wreckers	68	56.0	-12.0	8	72%	33	18	7	9
10	Lincoln School Lynxes	73	79.6	+6.6	13	20%	84	65	13	13
11	Beverly High School Panthers	80	60.5	-19.5	11	79%	26	10	6	8
12	Portsmouth High School RI Patriots	82	64.2	-17.8	12	90%	18	7	8	10
13	Greenwich High School Cardinals	87	60.4	-26.6	10	>99%	3	1	11	12

Open Eastern National Semis ICSA · 05/19/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 16.3 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.8 · winner's chance 48% · this far off in 62% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Harvard University Crimson	52	72.3	+20.3	1	48%	76	92	1	1
2	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	76	97.8	+21.8	4	21%	85	88	3	4
3	Tulane University Green Wave	90	87.4	-2.6	2	57%	51	48	2	2
4	Boston College Eagles	102	106.9	+4.9	6	33%	73	64	7	6
5	Roger Williams University Hawks	108	90.2	-17.8	3	75%	30	23	5	3
6	Dartmouth College Big Green	110	104.7	-5.3	5	62%	44	43	4	5
7	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	112	119.7	+7.7	7	48%	57	64	12	7
8	Cornell University Big Red	114	133.3	+19.3	10	38%	67	78	10	11
9	Connecticut College Camels	125	153.0	+28.0	13	18%	85	88	18	13
10	Northeastern University Huskies	131	163.7	+32.7	15	13%	89	92	16	15
11	University of Miami Hurricanes	148	144.2	-3.8	12	48%	57	44	8	12
12	George Washington University Revolutionaries	149	164.7	+15.7	16	28%	76	73	17	16
13	Hobart and William Smith Colleges Statesmen	150	127.0	-23.0	9	91%	12	16	11	9
14	University of California at Santa Barbara Gauchos	153.4	139.0	-14.4	11	87%	17	27	6	8
15	Massachusetts Institute of Technology Engineers	162	126.1	-35.9	8	98%	3	6	13	10
16	Eckerd College Tritons	163	156.8	-6.2	14	93%	14	36	14	14
17	University of Michigan Wolverines	191	194.6	+3.6	17	77%	43	50	15	17
18	Texas A&M University Aggies	243	212.5	-30.5	18	>99%	33	0	9	18

Open Western National Semis ICSA · 05/19/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 15.7 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 27.7 · winner's chance 42% · this far off in 82% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	40	71.0	+31.0	1	42%	79	99	4	2
2	Stanford University Cardinal	73	73.5	+0.5	2	66%	49	57	1	1
3	Georgetown University Hoyas	75	103.1	+28.1	4	26%	81	94	3	4
4	Yale University Bulldogs	89	109.1	+20.1	6	32%	74	85	5	7
5	College of Charleston Cougars	92	93.1	+1.1	3	76%	31	57	7	3
6	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	116	144.0	+28.0	11	11%	91	88	16	12
7	Fordham University Rams	124	145.5	+21.5	12	13%	89	84	13	11
8	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	131	103.6	-27.4	5	84%	19	13	10	6
9	Jacksonville University Fins	134	128.4	-5.6	8	62%	44	38	6	8
10	University of Rhode Island Rams	136	143.0	+7.0	10	46%	59	61	9	10
11	Tufts University Jumbos	138	131.4	-6.6	9	72%	32	39	11	9
12	San Diego State University Aztecs	149	116.8	-32.2	7	93%	9	8	2	5
13	U. S. Coast Guard Academy Bears	165	158.4	-6.6	13	54%	52	36	15	14
14	Boston University Terriers	169	171.1	+2.1	17	42%	64	52	18	17
14	North Carolina State University Wolfpack	169	167.8	-1.2	15	50%	56	42	12	15
16	Florida State University Seminoles	174	170.5	-3.5	16	73%	35	40	14	16
17	University of Wisconsin Badgers	210	201.4	-8.6	18	41%	69	24	17	18
18	University of Southern California Trojans	213	162.3	-50.7	14	>99%	2	0	8	13

Open Fleet Race National Championships ICSA · 05/21/2026 · 18 teams · site model off 28.1 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 35.5 · winner's chance 33% · this far off in 11% of simulations · picked the winner

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Brown University Bears	163	179.3	+16.3	1	33%	83	76	4	1
2	Stanford University Cardinal	174	187.2	+13.2	2	46%	64	72	1	2
3	Yale University Bulldogs	211	270.6	+59.6	11	5%	97	94	6	11
4	U. S. Naval Academy Midshipmen	223	247.5	+24.5	7	16%	87	78	8	6
5	Dartmouth College Big Green	225	248.8	+23.8	8	26%	79	74	5	9
5	University of Pennsylvania Quakers	225	259.1	+34.1	10	18%	85	83	13	10
7	Georgetown University Hoyas	230	255.9	+25.9	9	38%	67	76	3	8
7	Harvard University Crimson	230	189.1	-40.9	3	92%	11	15	2	3
9	Tulane University Green Wave	242	221.2	-20.8	5	85%	18	31	9	5
10	College of Charleston Cougars	243	219.5	-23.5	4	90%	12	29	12	4
11	Roger Williams University Hawks	253	233.9	-19.1	6	90%	13	32	11	7
12	St. Mary's College of Maryland Seahawks	302	293.7	-8.3	13	53%	52	38	15	13
13	Connecticut College Camels	318	367.8	+49.8	18	6%	95	89	18	18
14	Boston College Eagles	321	274.2	-46.8	12	93%	11	6	10	12
15	Jacksonville University Fins	337	308.8	-28.2	14	79%	29	18	7	14
16	Bowdoin College Polar Bears	343	347.4	+4.4	16	60%	50	47	17	16
17	Cornell University Big Red	370	328.4	-41.6	15	90%	17	9	14	15
18	Fordham University Rams	380	355.6	-24.4	17	>99%	11	16	16	17

2026 ISSA Mallory National Championship ISSA · 05/30/2026 · 20 teams · site model off 47.2 pts/team, Avg finish + penalties 59.5 · winner's chance 26% · this far off in 24% of simulations

Finish	Team	Points	Predicted points	Predicted minus actual	Predicted finish	Chance of this finish or better	Finish percentile	Points percentile	Avg finish + penalties finish	Previous model finish
1	Severn School Admirals	167	213.8	+46.8	2	26%	87	93	1	1
2	St. George's School Dragons	196	259.8	+63.8	5	13%	91	96	8	5
3	Mater Dei High School Monarchs	203	236.6	+33.6	3	42%	66	86	6	4
4	Lucy Beckham High School Bengals	213	266.6	+53.6	6	33%	73	91	5	6
5	Point Loma High School Pointers	221	194.4	-26.6	1	93%	9	36	3	2
6	Ransom Everglades School Raiders	229	327.3	+98.3	12	12%	90	99	11	13
7	Barrington High School Eagles	304	290.9	-13.1	8	44%	61	43	7	8
8	Christchurch School Seahorses One	313	258.6	-54.4	4	81%	24	12	2	3
9	Gulliver Preparatory School Raiders	318	323.5	+5.5	11	42%	63	53	12	12
10	Southern Regional High School Rams	321	300.7	-20.3	9	69%	37	35	4	7
11	Key School Zags	335	418.8	+83.8	15	8%	94	94	14	15
12	Brunswick School Bruins	360	314.7	-45.3	10	77%	28	22	10	11
13	San Marcos High School Royals	365	281.8	-83.2	7	97%	4	4	15	9
14	Arrowhead High School Warhawks	402	338.4	-63.6	13	89%	15	7	9	10
15	Bainbridge High School Spartans	429	403.6	-25.4	14	60%	48	22	13	14
16	Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays	429.7	519.7	+90.0	20	5%	96	95	16	20
17	New Trier HS Trevian	450	432.2	-17.8	17	72%	37	23	20	16
18	Minnetonka High School Skippers	459	458.3	-0.7	19	67%	44	38	19	18
19	Jones College Prep Eagles	460	426.3	-33.7	16	97%	8	16	17	17
20	Olympia High School Bears	539	454.0	-85.0	18	>99%	5	0	18	19

Caveats

• Actual totals are recomputed from recorded finishes and can differ slightly from official scores where a regatta used scoring penalties, averaged redress or tiebreakers.
• Only skippers are rated. A boat whose skipper has no earlier races gets their school's newcomer rating (the league's when the school has too few recent debuts) and the league penalty rate.
• Combined-division regattas are scored as a single fleet per race.